Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT is reporting that the former top Russian commander in Ukraine had advance knowledge of Prigozhin's rebellion, and may have helped him plan the logistics. There are also signs of support from other Russian generals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Wow.

Wait. Just to oust Shoigu, who is despised by a lot of people?
... or for a real coup to oust Putin?!?

Because if it's the latter, Putin better watch his back. They're not done with him yet. On the other hand, Putin's been picking off oligarchs one by one, through various means, and Surovikin may be next. But he's just one man, and there's a whole lot of "them".

Thing is, surovikin isn't really an oligarch though.He's a respected general who earned the nickname of 'Armageddon' for his alleged propensity to rain down unspeakable levels of violence on opponents . If putin—through the FSB—chooses to off him, what are the chances that his loyalists choose not to retaliate?

But... where does that leave Putin, then, if he lets other powerful men make very significant decisions for him?

It smells like a "soft coup" from a group of generals in the army. World history tells us that's usually how coups happen, actually.

And then we have Russia governed by hardline, "Armageddon" generals???

Delightful.

So many people cheering for Putin's ouster don't realize just how good we have it. He governs in a very restrained manner, and reels in many of the more extreme elements in Russian society.

These people should note that disaffection with Putin is coming from the side that doesn't want to hold back as much.

Actually disaffection from Putin's moderate democratic opponents started years ago, PP, but those people went to jail.
You're correct that the only ones willing to use force are the hardliners right now.

However the WORST, for NATO and the world, is if the Russian Federation disintegrates into several lawless regions because no one is iron-fisted enough to take over. NATO has much experience in managing autocratic countries. If Russia staggers from autocrat to autocrat, we know how to deal with that. But if Russia melts down into partisan infighting with nuclear weaponry sold off to terrorists and juntas, then we may have an extinction scenario on our hands.

It's when a nuclear-capable autocrat's hold on power slips that things are at their most dangerous.
This is why every country has their eyes on this conflict right now.

[Anonymous]

The WSJ is reporting that Prigozhin wanted to capture Shoigu and another Russian Army leader (with or without the knowledge of some other generals), but that the FSB got wind of his plot and that's why he decided to march on Moscow in a show of public discontent to get a little public sympathy... otherwise he'd have been assassinated rapidly. Which could still happen, but he bought himself some time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-military-leaders-805345cf?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any bets on how Putin tries to kill Prigozhin for the first attempt?

Thing is that the first attempt cleared the runway for the next attempt.

It definitely made Putin look incredibly weak and clownish. Here he funded his own private military with billions in Russian taxpayer dollars (after lying to the Russian public about it) only to have that private army turn on him, and they got all the way to the Moscow suburbs unopposed.

They didn't turn on him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any bets on how Putin tries to kill Prigozhin for the first attempt?

Thing is that the first attempt cleared the runway for the next attempt.

It definitely made Putin look incredibly weak and clownish. Here he funded his own private military with billions in Russian taxpayer dollars (after lying to the Russian public about it) only to have that private army turn on him, and they got all the way to the Moscow suburbs unopposed.

They didn't turn on him.

Who didn't turn on who now? Let's recap: Prigozhin's troops captured the Southern Military District from Putin and marched to the Moscow suburbs, shooting down any of Putin's military assets that fired on them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any bets on how Putin tries to kill Prigozhin for the first attempt?

Thing is that the first attempt cleared the runway for the next attempt.

It definitely made Putin look incredibly weak and clownish. Here he funded his own private military with billions in Russian taxpayer dollars (after lying to the Russian public about it) only to have that private army turn on him, and they got all the way to the Moscow suburbs unopposed.

They didn't turn on him.

Are you sure? The first goal is Shoigu’s ouster. What do you think the second might be? After occupying the top military positions, do you think they (Prigo and generals) won’t seek a bit more influence in the decision-making process?

You need to step back and think big, PP.

ALL these maneuvers are a threat to Putin, and his lack of lethal response has shown that he’s been forced to compromise… never a good look for a dictator.

[Anonymous]

Lushenko (spelling?) ‘s speech certainly made Putin look very small and weak. He basically took credit for averting a civil war and dealing with Putin. Putin must be boiling.

It doesn’t seem wise to allow a private army that opposes you to take up residence in a vassal state that you are sending nuclear weapons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gee this all seems to have taken some of the wind out of the pro-Russia trolls' sails 😆

Because so far it’s been a nothingburger
Let’s see what comes next

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lushenko (spelling?) ‘s speech certainly made Putin look very small and weak. He basically took credit for averting a civil war and dealing with Putin. Putin must be boiling.

It doesn’t seem wise to allow a private army that opposes you to take up residence in a vassal state that you are sending nuclear weapons.

Indeed. It's always been a concern of NATO that a transition to a different power structure in Russia would be fraught with risk. Putin put his own neck in a noose with this Ukraine war and now everyone's in a pickle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lushenko (spelling?) ‘s speech certainly made Putin look very small and weak. He basically took credit for averting a civil war and dealing with Putin. Putin must be boiling.

It doesn’t seem wise to allow a private army that opposes you to take up residence in a vassal state that you are sending nuclear weapons.

Indeed. It's always been a concern of NATO that a transition to a different power structure in Russia would be fraught with risk. Putin put his own neck in a noose with this Ukraine war and now everyone's in a pickle.

A smart leader would realize that Russia needs to change course and strategically rebalance and extricate itself from Ukraine and conflict with NATO, while reining in the deranged warmongering hardliners that got them into this mess in the first place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lushenko (spelling?) ‘s speech certainly made Putin look very small and weak. He basically took credit for averting a civil war and dealing with Putin. Putin must be boiling.

It doesn’t seem wise to allow a private army that opposes you to take up residence in a vassal state that you are sending nuclear weapons.

Indeed. It's always been a concern of NATO that a transition to a different power structure in Russia would be fraught with risk. Putin put his own neck in a noose with this Ukraine war and now everyone's in a pickle.

A smart leader would realize that Russia needs to change course and strategically rebalance and extricate itself from Ukraine and conflict with NATO, while reining in the deranged warmongering hardliners that got them into this mess in the first place.

Unfortunately he's not smart anymore. Years in power tend to do that to people. He was always the mentally-rigid, paranoid sort, (KGB/CIA types are often like that) and now his paranoia is out of control. It makes him take risks and precautions that aren't appropriate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT is reporting that the former top Russian commander in Ukraine had advance knowledge of Prigozhin's rebellion, and may have helped him plan the logistics. There are also signs of support from other Russian generals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Wow.

Wait. Just to oust Shoigu, who is despised by a lot of people?
... or for a real coup to oust Putin?!?

Because if it's the latter, Putin better watch his back. They're not done with him yet. On the other hand, Putin's been picking off oligarchs one by one, through various means, and Surovikin may be next. But he's just one man, and there's a whole lot of "them".

Thing is, surovikin isn't really an oligarch though.He's a respected general who earned the nickname of 'Armageddon' for his alleged propensity to rain down unspeakable levels of violence on opponents . If putin—through the FSB—chooses to off him, what are the chances that his loyalists choose not to retaliate?

But... where does that leave Putin, then, if he lets other powerful men make very significant decisions for him?

It smells like a "soft coup" from a group of generals in the army. World history tells us that's usually how coups happen, actually.

And then we have Russia governed by hardline, "Armageddon" generals???

Delightful.

So many people cheering for Putin's ouster don't realize just how good we have it. He governs in a very restrained manner, and reels in many of the more extreme elements in Russian society.

These people should note that disaffection with Putin is coming from the side that doesn't want to hold back as much.

Actually disaffection from Putin's moderate democratic opponents started years ago, PP, but those people went to jail.
You're correct that the only ones willing to use force are the hardliners right now.

However the WORST, for NATO and the world, is if the Russian Federation disintegrates into several lawless regions because no one is iron-fisted enough to take over. NATO has much experience in managing autocratic countries. If Russia staggers from autocrat to autocrat, we know how to deal with that. But if Russia melts down into partisan infighting with nuclear weaponry sold off to terrorists and juntas, then we may have an extinction scenario on our hands.

It's when a nuclear-capable autocrat's hold on power slips that things are at their most dangerous.
This is why every country has their eyes on this conflict right now.

Will Russia lose the war? Yes
Is Russia under extreme (self induced) stress as a country? Yes
Will RF disintegrate? Most likely no

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lushenko (spelling?) ‘s speech certainly made Putin look very small and weak. He basically took credit for averting a civil war and dealing with Putin. Putin must be boiling.

It doesn’t seem wise to allow a private army that opposes you to take up residence in a vassal state that you are sending nuclear weapons.

Indeed. It's always been a concern of NATO that a transition to a different power structure in Russia would be fraught with risk. Putin put his own neck in a noose with this Ukraine war and now everyone's in a pickle.

And since we can’t expect rational decisions from Putin - the other side either needs to be very decisive and effective (basically kicking them out of Ukraine) or smart and rational and offer a solution that will finally stop the conflict.

[Anonymous]

Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

Not really. Someone had to be responsible for the helicopters being shot down and soldiers killed. Prigozhin is no longer a traitor so Putin had to move on to the next oligarch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

Not really. Someone had to be responsible for the helicopters being shot down and soldiers killed. Prigozhin is no longer a traitor so Putin had to move on to the next oligarch.

Punish the guy who tried resisting the coup; treat the ones who cowered and did nothing like heroes.