What is the End Game in Ukraine?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Endgame? Get Russia out of a sovereign country, including Crimea.


Am bumping this response from the first page of the thread.

I hope that once the Russians leave Crimea, Ukraine is admitted to NATO with its legal boundaries intact.


Any eventual cessation of hostilities will likely include an agreement on the part of Ukraine to withhold joining NATO for a specified number of years. It also could include a referendum on independence for Crimea. Ukraine has lost upwards of 10,000 soldiers and countless civilian casualties. Then there’s the matter of the thousands sent to filtration camps and resettled throughout Russia. Defining victory in the face of genocidal war crimes will not be a simple matter for Ukraine.


At this point, given said War Crimes, other than getting out and staying out, Russia doesn't deserve any concessions. They will also need to pay reparations for the death and destruction they have needlessly caused.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Endgame? Get Russia out of a sovereign country, including Crimea.


Am bumping this response from the first page of the thread.

I hope that once the Russians leave Crimea, Ukraine is admitted to NATO with its legal boundaries intact.


Any eventual cessation of hostilities will likely include an agreement on the part of Ukraine to withhold joining NATO for a specified number of years. It also could include a referendum on independence for Crimea. Ukraine has lost upwards of 10,000 soldiers and countless civilian casualties. Then there’s the matter of the thousands sent to filtration camps and resettled throughout Russia. Defining victory in the face of genocidal war crimes will not be a simple matter for Ukraine.


At this point, given said War Crimes, other than getting out and staying out, Russia doesn't deserve any concessions. They will also need to pay reparations for the death and destruction they have needlessly caused.


I see you're an avid consumer of atrocity porn. https://scheerpost.com/2022/09/18/patrick-lawrence-atrocity-porn/
Anonymous
War crimes, schmar crimes: Zelensky Wants to be Just Like Israel.

“We cannot talk about ‘Switzerland of the future,’” the president informed reporters. “But we will definitely become a ‘big Israel’ with its own face.”

For those wondering what a “big Israel” would actually look like, Zelensky quickly elaborated on his disturbing prophecy.

“We will not be surprised that we will have representatives of the Armed Forces or the National Guard in all institutions, supermarkets, cinemas — there will be people with weapons,” Ukraine’s president said, predicting a bleak existence for his citizens. “I am sure that our security issue will be number one in the next ten years.”

Though the web post was based on comments Zelensky made to reporters, the president’s office mysteriously excised a section of his remarks in which he declared a future Ukraine would not be “absolutely liberal, European.” Instead, along with his vision for a heavily militarized Ukraine, the post emphasized Zelensky’s readiness to join NATO “already tomorrow.”

For NATO’s power brokers, however, Zelensky’s intimated willingness to join the military alliance was perhaps the least remarkable aspect of his statement. Instead, within 48 hours of his comments, the Atlantic Council – NATO’s semi-official think tank in Washington – published a “road map” exploring how to transform Ukraine into “a big Israel.”

Authored by Daniel B. Shapiro, the former US Ambassador to Israel under President Barack Obama, the document posited that “the two embattled countries share more than you might think.”

https://scheerpost.com/2022/09/19/zelensky-and-nato-plan-to-transform-post-war-ukraine-into-hyper-militarized-police-state/
Anonymous
Russia is doomed to a terrorist state. Lock them all down in the largest country on the planet. We can live without their hockey players- the only thing they are good for.
Anonymous
There are a few things valuable in Ukraine that Russia could want.
1. Greater warm water port access. The Black Fleet is bottlenecked and there aren't many warm water ports Russia can expand to. The Black Sea (Sevastopol in Crimea) and the Mediterranean Sea (Tartus in Syria) are it. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/JEMEAA/Journals/Volume-02_Issue-1/Chauhan.pdf
2. Europe's breadbasket. Lots of grain produced.
3. Better pipeline access to European oil markets. Why pay Ukraine rights when you can get it for free?
4. Access to former Soviet heavy industries. Kharkiv, for example, was once synonymous with the Malyshev Factory, aka Kharkov Locomotive Factory. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/industry.htm
5. Validates Russian Propaganda. Russians still have difficulty believing (a) Ukes would turn against them, and (b) that they received so much Western support. That's why so many Russians refused to fight, abandoned vehicles, etc. It was difficult for many to imagine. A rough analogy might like Canada fighting the U.S., and Canada receiving weapons from China. That's why Russian propaganda is careful to only label Ukrainian leaders, and not ordinary citizens, as "bandera" or "nazi's". Side note: bandera likely comes from Stepan Bandera (1909-59, a Ukrainian ultranationalist and quasi-Fascist. Ukrainian people were supposed to be cheering and welcoming the Russians into Ukraine with flowers, btw.

All are important, but I believe #5 is the most significant reason.
  • Russians invaded and then left Ukraine in 2014. They did get access to #1, #2, #3, #4, but as we've seen, it wasn't the strategic goal of the invasion, since they just would have stayed put.
    After the 2014 invasion, Ukraine becomes even closer with the West.
    In December 2019, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine started working with the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA).
    In July 2020, the Law “On Defense Procurement” was approved by the Ukrainian Parliament."
    Russia held the Zapad-2021 exercises Sep 2021, then sat on the borders.
    Russia peaked in covid cases on February 11, 2022 (202,211 new cases reported that day).
    Then the Russian special operation in Ukraine started in February 24, 2022.


  • I think this is why the Russian end-state in Ukraine is a unicorn. They want a result that isn't going to happen. Then what?
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:Russia is doomed to a terrorist state. Lock them all down in the largest country on the planet. We can live without their hockey players- the only thing they are good for.


    What an insightful comment.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    As bad as the Russian army is, it would have had the upper hand if Ukraine didn't get outside assistance. IMO it's a bit of an unrealistic bar to expect one country to stand up to a global effort to arm its opponent.

    I also don't quite know if Ukraine is the right country to carry the anti-corruption flag. It was named the most corrupt in Europe just before the war.


    Before you go around disparaging the Ukrainians, I would take into account they are literally in a battle for their lives. Try criticizing them after you've helped them rebuild their country. Only then do you have that right, For people unfamiliar with the communist system, yes, it will take decades to undo, However, it's not something that changes overnight.

    Your analysis is completely off on the military aspect.

    The population of Russia before the war was 144 million, Ukraine 44 (about a third). Russia was the unilateral aggressor, so was well prepared in advance; even sitting on their borders for a few weeks (in the Zapad war preparations). All the West did was supply arms and aid retroactively; and only after Ukrainians showed they weren't going to cave like they did in '14.

    It's clear you know nothing about the Russian system of government or its Army. Against non-Ukrainians (ex. Syrians, Africa, etc.) they are brutal and effective. The problem is they are fighting what they consider to be brethren, and as line troops realize their own propaganda is a lie, their morale is impacted.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.


    Ted Cruz kept using parliamentary procedures to delay the Biden Admin a vote on their ambassador nominee.

    https://www.govexec.com/management/2022/02/state-dept-nominees-can-move-forward-now-gop-senator-has-lifted-his-holds/362465/
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.


    Ted Cruz kept using parliamentary procedures to delay the Biden Admin a vote on their ambassador nominee.

    https://www.govexec.com/management/2022/02/state-dept-nominees-can-move-forward-now-gop-senator-has-lifted-his-holds/362465/

    Typical Republican.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.


    Ted Cruz kept using parliamentary procedures to delay the Biden Admin a vote on their ambassador nominee.

    https://www.govexec.com/management/2022/02/state-dept-nominees-can-move-forward-now-gop-senator-has-lifted-his-holds/362465/



    Oh yeah, the reason for Biden's incompetence at foreign affairs is Ted Cruz

    You're in middle school, right?
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.


    Ted Cruz kept using parliamentary procedures to delay the Biden Admin a vote on their ambassador nominee.

    https://www.govexec.com/management/2022/02/state-dept-nominees-can-move-forward-now-gop-senator-has-lifted-his-holds/362465/



    Oh yeah, the reason for Biden's incompetence at foreign affairs is Ted Cruz

    You're in middle school, right?


    Ted Cruz uses middle school tactics ALL THE TIME to try to prevent the Dems from accomplishing what they want. Have you ever read his Twitter account? He is a pathetic, little man.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:🙄

    Sure, that Muzhuk-Vorontsov DOJ case was nonsense, pal. Also the Kolomoisky-Boholiubov case. Just two popping up with a quick search.

    Where’s the oversight of US taxpayer money and US weaponry pouring in?


    Nobody is arguing that there isn’t any corruption or money laundering, pal. But you know that, right? Waste, fraud and abuse are inherent in any federal program, whether it’s PPP under Trump or decades spent in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is focused on transhipping military equipment not handing out cash to bribe tribal leaders. The DOD IG and Congress will be exercising oversight because that’s their job.


    Pal, State isn’t even cooperating with SIGAR. What makes you think DoD cooperation w/ an ACTING IG be any better? The latest $$$ dump is going for the long game. At least there has been a new US ambassador to the Russian Federation nominated.

    Ukrainian officials do their accounting of American equipment with “hand receipts, it’s all paper.”

    Biden designated a nominee ten days after Sullivan said he was going to resign.



    Do we already have an Ambassador to Ukraine? It bordered on the incredible we didn't have one in place with everything happening earlier in the year.


    Ted Cruz kept using parliamentary procedures to delay the Biden Admin a vote on their ambassador nominee.

    https://www.govexec.com/management/2022/02/state-dept-nominees-can-move-forward-now-gop-senator-has-lifted-his-holds/362465/



    Oh yeah, the reason for Biden's incompetence at foreign affairs is Ted Cruz

    You're in middle school, right?


    Well cruz is not a natural born American. He and his family should be put on a plane.
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