Reply to What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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[quote=Anonymous]There are a few things valuable in Ukraine that Russia could want.
1.  Greater warm water port access.  The Black Fleet is bottlenecked and there aren't many warm water ports Russia can expand to. The Black Sea (Sevastopol in Crimea) and the Mediterranean Sea (Tartus in Syria) are it.  https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/JEMEAA/Journals/Volume-02_Issue-1/Chauhan.pdf
2.  Europe's breadbasket.  Lots of grain produced.
3.  Better pipeline access to European oil markets.  Why pay Ukraine rights when you can get it for free?
4.  Access to former Soviet heavy industries.  Kharkiv, for example, was once synonymous with the Malyshev Factory, aka Kharkov Locomotive Factory.  https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/industry.htm
5.  Validates Russian Propaganda.  Russians still have difficulty believing (a) Ukes would turn against them, and (b) that they received so much Western support.  That's why so many Russians refused to fight, abandoned vehicles, etc.  It was difficult for many to imagine.  A rough analogy might like Canada fighting the U.S., and Canada receiving weapons from China.  That's why Russian propaganda is careful to only label Ukrainian leaders, and not ordinary citizens, as "bandera" or "nazi's".  Side note: bandera likely comes from Stepan Bandera (1909-59, a Ukrainian ultranationalist and quasi-Fascist.  Ukrainian people were supposed to be cheering and welcoming the Russians into Ukraine with flowers, btw.

All are important, but I believe #5 is the most significant reason.  
[list]Russians invaded and then left Ukraine in 2014.  They did get access to #1, #2, #3, #4, but as we've seen, it wasn't the strategic goal of the invasion, since they just would have stayed put.
After the 2014 invasion, Ukraine becomes even closer with the West.
In December 2019, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine started working with the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). 
In July 2020, the Law “On Defense Procurement” was approved by the Ukrainian Parliament."  
Russia held the Zapad-2021 exercises Sep 2021, then sat on the borders.  
Russia peaked in covid cases on February 11, 2022 (202,211 new cases reported that day).  
Then the Russian special operation in Ukraine started in February 24, 2022.[/list]

I think this is why the Russian end-state in Ukraine is a unicorn.  They want a result that isn't going to happen.  Then what?[/quote]

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