Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody likes Harris but we have to stop Trump.

I like Harris. The more I learn about her, the more I like. I was focused on other candidates during the 2020 primaries, and Vice Presidents are generally invisible. I'm pleasantly surprised. Of course, she's helped by the fact that "not ancient" and "fairly normal" are like a breath of fresh air in this country.

This.
She is just so normal! It’s great.

Normal people don’t have a 92% staff turnover.

Can you provide a citation for this? Genuinely curious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody likes Harris but we have to stop Trump.

I like Harris. The more I learn about her, the more I like. I was focused on other candidates during the 2020 primaries, and Vice Presidents are generally invisible. I'm pleasantly surprised. Of course, she's helped by the fact that "not ancient" and "fairly normal" are like a breath of fresh air in this country.

This.
She is just so normal! It’s great.

Normal people don’t have a 92% staff turnover.

And Trump's turnover is way better:

https://www.statista.com/chart/15071/how-does-trumps-turnover-compare-to-other-presidents/

+1 The best turnover. There’s nothing else like it.

"I had the best numbers. Just ask those people who worked for me."



And let's not forget that some like 90% of his former cabinet members don't want to return.

I wish his supporters would accept this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody likes Harris but we have to stop Trump.

I like Harris. The more I learn about her, the more I like. I was focused on other candidates during the 2020 primaries, and Vice Presidents are generally invisible. I'm pleasantly surprised. Of course, she's helped by the fact that "not ancient" and "fairly normal" are like a breath of fresh air in this country.

This.
She is just so normal! It’s great.

Normal people don’t have a 92% staff turnover.

Not only did Trump have a worse turnover, but he also almost had his VP hanged.

Sooooo, they’re both not normal, maybe?

Lol, you keep trying. Harris can move through the world like a normal person. I think Donald Trump would struggle to make an online purchase or interact with someone who isn’t one of his underlings he can order around. And let’s not get started on the couch clucker JD.

Lichtman could be wrong, but he’s been right for 40 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Political Science has long had physics envy.

But political science cannot quantify all the variables in the human and historical experience.

Weird shit happens at odd times. And there’s no formula for that.

I think Harris will win. And I can point to data in Michigan or Wisconsin or wherever and it all seems logical.

And then Pearl Harbor happens. Or Kennedy gets assassinated. Or 9/11 happens.

And your little PhD models are useless. Because human beings remain unpredictable

The best we can manage are patterns, not predictions

In 2020, the Washington Post said Biden was up 17 percent in Wisconsin and New York Times put the figure at 11 percent. The actual margin was 0.6 percent! So much for polls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Political Science has long had physics envy.

But political science cannot quantify all the variables in the human and historical experience.

Weird shit happens at odd times. And there’s no formula for that.

I think Harris will win. And I can point to data in Michigan or Wisconsin or wherever and it all seems logical.

And then Pearl Harbor happens. Or Kennedy gets assassinated. Or 9/11 happens.

And your little PhD models are useless. Because human beings remain unpredictable

The best we can manage are patterns, not predictions

In 2020, the Washington Post said Biden was up 17 percent in Wisconsin and New York Times put the figure at 11 percent. The actual margin was 0.6 percent! So much for polls.

You think Allan Lichtman represents a poll?

[Anonymous]

Even as I hold my breath on how well we will all be off and happy for Walz/Harris, I am 1000000% they will win over Trump. Any other GOP candidate without drama and with some sense of sanity, I would say it's a really hard call and honestly, I think with Kamala, GOP stands a higher chance of winning.

However, v Donald Duck in current times, you honestly have to be an idiot of the highest caliber to lose. Even Kamala is not that although again, I don't think she's the best suited for POTUS. She'll have her issues and come 2028, we'll all be seeking GOP. She is going to drive us all to hell on the domestic front. But you know, Trump is just too much drama all around.

[Anonymous]

Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

Every Democrat remembers 2016. No one is complacent. Trump is the Ivermectin sloughed-off lining of someone’s gut in a toilet, but he still might win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody likes Harris but we have to stop Trump.

I like Harris. The more I learn about her, the more I like. I was focused on other candidates during the 2020 primaries, and Vice Presidents are generally invisible. I'm pleasantly surprised. Of course, she's helped by the fact that "not ancient" and "fairly normal" are like a breath of fresh air in this country.

This.
She is just so normal! It’s great.

Normal people don’t have a 92% staff turnover.

Not only did Trump have a worse turnover, but he also almost had his VP hanged.

Sooooo, they’re both not normal, maybe?

Those are our options - weird and more weird.

+1000.. OMG best true statement ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

Every Democrat remembers 2016. No one is complacent. Trump is the Ivermectin sloughed-off lining of someone’s gut in a toilet, but he still might win.

+1 the swing state polls are very close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

Every Democrat remembers 2016. No one is complacent. Trump is the Ivermectin sloughed-off lining of someone’s gut in a toilet, but he still might win.

But it's not 2016. Key considerations that swing the tide to Dems this time around:

1. Trump has had a shot. In 2016 he was a shiny new thing - nuts and over the top, lots of drama and weird - but an outsider people were willing to try out. He represented in 2016 a hope for a lot of people, right or wrong. The anger was tangible and he was the populist candidate in a sense. No longer. We know what he stands for.

2. Trump has serious legal issues this time around - conviction in 2024 v none in 2016.

3. Hillary had her own drama. She was never the most popular person as Dems would like to believe. She had been in the rodeo so everyone knew her name but she wasn't exactly a star. She ran a horrible campaign in the sense that her and her team went in to play a game they never prepped for. Overconfident, no prep and never saw the loss coming. We've all experienced 2016 and it's 2024 now.

Kamala has the distinct advantage over Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nobody likes Harris but we have to stop Trump.

I like Harris. The more I learn about her, the more I like. I was focused on other candidates during the 2020 primaries, and Vice Presidents are generally invisible. I'm pleasantly surprised. Of course, she's helped by the fact that "not ancient" and "fairly normal" are like a breath of fresh air in this country.

This.
She is just so normal! It’s great.

Normal people don’t have a 92% staff turnover.

And Trump's turnover is way better:

https://www.statista.com/chart/15071/how-does-trumps-turnover-compare-to-other-presidents/

+1 The best turnover. There’s nothing else like it.

"I had the best numbers. Just ask those people who worked for me."



And let's not forget that some like 90% of his former cabinet members don't want to return.

He is the only president in the last forty-years to have cabinet members walk away in one-year or less. They raised their hands and said, "I'm out. I can't deal with the crazies".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

Every Democrat remembers 2016. No one is complacent. Trump is the Ivermectin sloughed-off lining of someone’s gut in a toilet, but he still might win.

But it's not 2016. Key considerations that swing the tide to Dems this time around:

1. Trump has had a shot. In 2016 he was a shiny new thing - nuts and over the top, lots of drama and weird - but an outsider people were willing to try out. He represented in 2016 a hope for a lot of people, right or wrong. The anger was tangible and he was the populist candidate in a sense. No longer. We know what he stands for.

2. Trump has serious legal issues this time around - conviction in 2024 v none in 2016.

3. Hillary had her own drama. She was never the most popular person as Dems would like to believe. She had been in the rodeo so everyone knew her name but she wasn't exactly a star. She ran a horrible campaign in the sense that her and her team went in to play a game they never prepped for. Overconfident, no prep and never saw the loss coming. We've all experienced 2016 and it's 2024 now.

Kamala has the distinct advantage over Trump.

Trump has the biggest advantage - A white man in America.

[Anonymous]

You know Hillary was better at policy than politics. Bill was the politician. Kamala is a politician. You gotta be able to sell your lies as a politician. It's an amazing gift Bill had - that charisma. That ability to sell. Hillary wasn't likeable. Likeability is number one must have in sales. People like Kamala. I personally do not but she can connect in a way Hillary never could.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any fool can see that (barring any crazy event close to election day) Kamala is going to win. I mean the amount of money she's raised, Trump's age and legal issues, Vance selection, economy is still above board, etc. You don't really have to be that academic or brilliant to see this.

Every Democrat remembers 2016. No one is complacent. Trump is the Ivermectin sloughed-off lining of someone’s gut in a toilet, but he still might win.

But it's not 2016. Key considerations that swing the tide to Dems this time around:

1. Trump has had a shot. In 2016 he was a shiny new thing - nuts and over the top, lots of drama and weird - but an outsider people were willing to try out. He represented in 2016 a hope for a lot of people, right or wrong. The anger was tangible and he was the populist candidate in a sense. No longer. We know what he stands for.

2. Trump has serious legal issues this time around - conviction in 2024 v none in 2016.

3. Hillary had her own drama. She was never the most popular person as Dems would like to believe. She had been in the rodeo so everyone knew her name but she wasn't exactly a star. She ran a horrible campaign in the sense that her and her team went in to play a game they never prepped for. Overconfident, no prep and never saw the loss coming. We've all experienced 2016 and it's 2024 now.

Kamala has the distinct advantage over Trump.

Trump has the biggest advantage - A white man in America.

Obama won as a black man. Not sure the advantage is still there.