Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will win

[Anonymous]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html

Harris to win WH

[Anonymous]

Professor Lichtman has never been wrong, except for the Bush-Gore election. He even made the 2016 call for Trump against conventional wisdom. From his mouth to God’s ears.

[Anonymous]

He predicted Biden would win as well. lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He predicted Biden would win as well. lol

Biden did win. Are you OK?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Professor Lichtman has never been wrong, except for the Bush-Gore election. He even made the 2016 call for Trump against conventional wisdom. From his mouth to God’s ears.

Given that the Supreme Court awarded that one to the loser, he hasn’t been wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He predicted Biden would win as well. lol

Biden did win. Are you OK?

Lichtman said the Democrats were being hasty in dumping Biden after the debate debacle this time. He said they still held enough keys to win even with a doddering Biden on the ticket.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He predicted Biden would win as well. lol

Biden did win. Are you OK?

Lichtman said the Democrats were being hasty in dumping Biden after the debate debacle this time. He said they still held enough keys to win even with a doddering Biden on the ticket.

Yeah but he never makes his actual prediction until after Labor Day.

[Anonymous]

He has a pseudoscientific model based on “keys” that is not very empirical. Harris might win, but a lot can happen between now and November that might change the outcome of the election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He predicted Biden would win as well. lol

Biden did win. Are you OK?

Lichtman said the Democrats were being hasty in dumping Biden after the debate debacle this time. He said they still held enough keys to win even with a doddering Biden on the ticket.

Yeah but he never makes his actual prediction until after Labor Day.

+1 If Biden had stayed on, I'm 100% sure he would've lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He has a pseudoscientific model based on “keys” that is not very empirical. Harris might win, but a lot can happen between now and November that might change the outcome of the election.

Finding out that the right wing is being led around by the nose by Russia has been an entertaining development.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Professor Lichtman has never been wrong, except for the Bush-Gore election. He even made the 2016 call for Trump against conventional wisdom. From his mouth to God’s ears.

He was technically not wrong in 2000 either (cough, Florida.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He has a pseudoscientific model based on “keys” that is not very empirical. Harris might win, but a lot can happen between now and November that might change the outcome of the election.

Look, it's a nice prediction but it doesn't mean anything. The only thing that matters is the real polling on election day (i.e., get out and vote folks).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html

Harris to win WH

Agreed.

Harris-Walz 2024

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Professor Lichtman has never been wrong, except for the Bush-Gore election. He even made the 2016 call for Trump against conventional wisdom. From his mouth to God’s ears.

Once the votes were actually counted, Gore won Florida and thus was entitled to the White House, alas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Professor Lichtman has never been wrong, except for the Bush-Gore election. He even made the 2016 call for Trump against conventional wisdom. From his mouth to God’s ears.

Once the votes were actually counted, Gore won Florida and thus was entitled to the White House, alas.

If only we had some sort of system where a few hundred voters can only cause one electoral vote to swing, rather than 25. Oh well.