Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He won’t be wrong this time. He hasn’t had a miss except for Bush v. Gore.

As stated above, that wasn’t a miss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Lichtman will update his prediction before the election and say Trump.
He has changed his predictions before, gutsiest was he switched to Trump in 2016.

Why do YOU think he will update his prediction?

So, which keys do you expect to change? Right now 1-7 and 13 are not changing before the election. That is 6 True and 2 False

Of the remainder. 8-9 are True and 10-12 are False. For Lichtman to change his prediction, both 8 and 9 have to become false. That means that there has to be sustained social unrest in the nation. With only 54 days left to the election, sustained really means something has to happen soon and be sustained until the election. Additionally, that means that the current administration needs to have a major scandal occur. I don't really think that both of those will happen in the next 54 days, but you never know (knock on wood!) Last, if by some chance, the US is behind a major success in either Ukraine or the Middle East (unlikely, I agree), then it Lichtman's prediction would not change before the election.



The Keys are statements that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If I never hear the word "keys" again it will be too soon.

[Anonymous]

?Nate is a maga, who knew (

[Anonymous]

So full of hubris, these guys.

I think Harris is going to win, just because MAGAs are seeing Trump decline pretty badly right now. It will depress turnout. She won’t win on the issues. People just want their candidate to be able to pronounce words, speak in complete sentences and not shut down a Q&A with 30 minutes of standing around in a daze. Or scream THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS randomly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win with 306 electoral votes.

Show me your keys.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win with 306 electoral votes.

Show me your keys.

I love you

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Lichtman will update his prediction before the election and say Trump.
He has changed his predictions before, gutsiest was he switched to Trump in 2016.

Why do YOU think he will update his prediction?

So, which keys do you expect to change? Right now 1-7 and 13 are not changing before the election. That is 6 True and 2 False

Of the remainder. 8-9 are True and 10-12 are False. For Lichtman to change his prediction, both 8 and 9 have to become false. That means that there has to be sustained social unrest in the nation. With only 54 days left to the election, sustained really means something has to happen soon and be sustained until the election. Additionally, that means that the current administration needs to have a major scandal occur. I don't really think that both of those will happen in the next 54 days, but you never know (knock on wood!) Last, if by some chance, the US is behind a major success in either Ukraine or the Middle East (unlikely, I agree), then it Lichtman's prediction would not change before the election.



The Keys are statements that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

His model is not based off one side having a majority. I think it is 8-5 or 9-4

[Anonymous]

Allan Lichtman

He was great in the movie "Die Hard" as a bad guy.

[Anonymous]

Allan was always annoying and pompous.

—his former neighbor

[Anonymous]

What happened this time, Allan??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What happened this time, Allan??

He doesn’t really care. Someone from Harris camp filled his deep pockets to say what he said and he’s enjoying a book by a fire somewhere- same as Selzer.

[Anonymous]

Al baby!

You had ONE JOB.

What happened?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win with 306 electoral votes.

Show me your keys.

Pretty good guess on that 306. It was actually 312.