What is the End Game in Ukraine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know it’s very egotistical but can it all please end ASAP and ordinary Russians get their Schengen visas and inexpensive plane tickets back?
Maybe Russia is going to be post war Germany, respectable and well to do? A girl can dream!

Yep with an average household income of $6500 the ordinary Russian is clamoring for plane tickets.

It’s more symbolic than anything. If - even in theory- you can board a plane to pretty much any European country - then life is normal. If you can get your McD burger and Ikea couch, a visa to the US without jumping through hoops… you know the old 2019 things.
Can’t wait for it to be back. That’s why I want Ukraine to win - Russia will then get a light or not so light whipping and eventually become a country with a more or less ok reputation again

Well you technically can, you just need to go through Istanbul.

Well Turkey is charging an arm and a leg for tickets and whatnot

[Anonymous]

I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

And what if they do? NATO would destroy Russian forces. Moscow and all the “senior” leadership would be targeted by NATO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble.

Hence the urgency to reclaim ground for the Ukrainians, because *winter is coming* to Europe, with the real possibility that the alliance will fracture under the pressure of citizens to heat themselves without Russian gas. If Ukraine shows NATO it can push back Russia, NATO will follow through with its continued support, despite the terrible cost to the EU.

Putin has been very complacent because he's known all along that winter would pose a particular risk to European unity. I still don't think he's worried, because he knows his troops are entrenched in the south and east of Ukraine in a way they were not in the Kharkiv region. He's counting on a dragged-out conflict and EU splintering and begging him for gas this winter.

The USA is working all out to help Ukraine with real-time intelligence on airstrikes, etc, to give them as much advantage as possible, so that NATO stays together this winter.

These next few weeks and months will be critical for the future of NATO and Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Putin s having to redeploy troops from the south to support a defensive posture along the Oskil River snd to the east of Kharkiv. The Russians have not been able to establish a defensive front east of Kharkiv and continue to abandon tanks, armored vehicles, weaponry and fuel. They have lost all initiative and the idea they will reclaim ground in the face of low morale and a high volume of desertions is magical thinking. The biggest risks to the Ukrainian offensive are battle fatigue and outpacing their own resupply capabilities.

[Anonymous]

Russia is really screwed. Even if the mobilized 500k of their civilians and/or “reserves” (no one really thinks they exist) if would be 4-6 months for poorly trained and poorly equipped soldiers to get to the front.

If the keep hitting critical infrastructures as they started this weekend they will get the terrorist state status Ukraine is pushing for.

Part of me wonders if Russians actually know how hates they are…joking the ranks of n korea is like pretty much as close to subhuman as you can get classification.

[Anonymous]

Russia has to resort to buying munitions and other supplies ftom … checks notes … North Korea. Hahahaha.

[Anonymous]

All these comments are cute, but I don't think you're thinking from a Russian Communists POV. Putin falls ill or leaves his position - so what. The only question is how many more are at the top? Ex. If there was any doubt the head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, is on the crazy train...

Solovyov suggested pundit Yaakov Kedmi should help Simonyan look at the “bright side of life”, even though his prognosis of how Russia’s war against Ukraine would progress turned out to be completely off the mark. Instead of pitching in, Kedmi let out a long cough and refused the opportunity to lighten up the moment. Head of RT claimed that “her conscience and her knowledge about what’s going on” would not allow her to comment any further. After noting that the situation is very difficult, Simonyan decided to sing verses from an old Soviet song, “The March of the Red Cavalry.” Other panelists awkwardly looked down, as she sang and then reiterated the lyrics about moving forward and never backing down.

Simonyan called on the Russian people to push forward until the bitter end, squeezing out “nerus,” a disparaging term, used to describe anyone who is not Russian, along with “vyrus,” the word used to describe those who are Russian, but refuse to self-identify as such.

Concluding her bizarre performance on Solovyov’s show, Simonyan said: “People ask when, where and how our special operation will end. It will end when all the ‘nerus,’ all the ‘vyrus,’ everyone who wants to turn us into yahoos, everyone who directs them, everyone who brainwashes them, will suffer infamy and shame. It may take 3 months, 3 years or 30 years, so be it. What other choice do we have?” Solovyov replied: “Our other choice? Reduce the whole world to dust. Just not yet.” Smiling, Simonyan replied, “And we will go to heaven.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rts-margarita-simonyan-belts-out-song-on-russian-state-tv-in-awkward-push-for-more-troops-in-ukraine?via=rss&source=articles_fancylink

Note that the final verse of the song is "we sacrifice our lives for the struggle"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4kvVbEEtMY

[Anonymous]

^^Another note about the song. It is an allusion to Semyon Budyonny, who firmly believed in horse cavalry over tanks.

"After the Soviet forces under Budyonny's command suffered unprecedented defeats in the battles of Kiev and Uman, he had to be removed from frontline command because of his unfitness to command a modern army." [..] he remarked, "You won't convince me. As soon as war is declared, everyone will shout, "Send for the Cavalry!"

"In July–September 1941, Budyonny was Commander-in-Chief (главком, glavkom) of the Soviet armed forces of the Southwestern Direction (Southwestern and Southern Fronts) facing the German invasion of Ukraine. [..] Budyonny's forces were eventually surrounded during the Battle of Uman and the Battle of Kiev by Nazi forces. The disasters which followed the encirclement cost the Soviet Union 1.5 million men killed or taken prisoner. This was the largest encirclement in military history."

"Despite his bravery as a cavalry commander, the view of his fellow officers was that Budyonny was demonstrably incompetent at commanding an army in a mechanized war. Soon after the war, Marshal Konev told the Yugoslav communist, Milovan Đilas: "Budyonny never knew much, and he never studied anything. He showed himself to be completely incompetent and permitted awful mistakes to be made."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semyon_Budyonny


Someone could draw a parallel between Budyonny's horse cavalry and Putin's failed war in Ukraine? The question is how close an analogy did Margarita intend?

[Anonymous]

^^ and the cherry on top of the icing -

Margarita isn't ethnic Russian. She is nerus herself. Both her parents are descendants of Armenian refugees from the Ottoman Empire.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margarita_Simonyan

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is really screwed. Even if the mobilized 500k of their civilians and/or “reserves” (no one really thinks they exist) if would be 4-6 months for poorly trained and poorly equipped soldiers to get to the front.

If the keep hitting critical infrastructures as they started this weekend they will get the terrorist state status Ukraine is pushing for.

Part of me wonders if Russians actually know how hates they are…joking the ranks of n korea is like pretty much as close to subhuman as you can get classification.

That's mostly in your head you know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble.

As bad as the Russian army is, it would have had the upper hand if Ukraine didn't get outside assistance. IMO it's a bit of an unrealistic bar to expect one country to stand up to a global effort to arm its opponent.

I also don't quite know if Ukraine is the right country to carry the anti-corruption flag. It was named the most corrupt in Europe just before the war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble.

As bad as the Russian army is, it would have had the upper hand if Ukraine didn't get outside assistance. IMO it's a bit of an unrealistic bar to expect one country to stand up to a global effort to arm its opponent.

I also don't quite know if Ukraine is the right country to carry the anti-corruption flag. It was named the most corrupt in Europe just before the war.

It’s where western Elites launder money and produce illegal germ weapons. That’s why it’s a total freak out. It will end with Russia winning or else being nuked into rubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi. Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda. I've seen this type of pretense before. I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble.

As bad as the Russian army is, it would have had the upper hand if Ukraine didn't get outside assistance. IMO it's a bit of an unrealistic bar to expect one country to stand up to a global effort to arm its opponent.

I also don't quite know if Ukraine is the right country to carry the anti-corruption flag. It was named the most corrupt in Europe just before the war.

Ukraine isn't "the country carrying the anti-corruption flag" (although Zelenskyy ran on an anti-corruption campaign and won so there's that) but is carrying a sovereign country anti-being-invaded flag.