Reply to What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don't think Putin read the room when he met with Xi and Modi.  Or if he did, he forgot to send the memo to the mouthpieces to cut it out.

Implying NATO ground forces are involved is super dangerous propaganda.  I've seen this type of pretense before.  I would expect some type of "chicken" or fake damage to Russian military assets being played out with NATO within the next 30 days?[/quote]

Putin is playing to an audience in Russia. There’s no other way for him to hide behind the fact that the invasion has been a debacle and laid bare the fact that the Russian military is inept and hollowed out by corruption. Russian supply lines to Donbas have been severed, troops are deserting and Russia is attempting to conscript prisoners with promises of clemency. It’s forced to bring T62 tanks into service that were outdated back in the mid-70s.

OTOH the situation in UKR would be entirely different without NATO intelligence capabilities, logistics and armaments. Putin bet the house on NATO splintering and yet two more nations are in the process of joining and all most members have punched above their weight. Germany stands out as a disappointment and the jury is still out on whether Italy will start to wobble. [/quote]

Hence the urgency to reclaim ground for the Ukrainians, because *winter is coming* to Europe, with the real possibility that the alliance will fracture under the pressure of citizens to heat themselves without Russian gas. If Ukraine shows NATO it can push back Russia, NATO will follow through with its continued support, despite the terrible cost to the EU.

Putin has been very complacent because he's known all along that winter would pose a particular risk to European unity. I still don't think he's worried, because he knows his troops are entrenched in the south and east of Ukraine in a way they were not in the Kharkiv region. He's counting on a dragged-out conflict and EU splintering and begging him for gas this winter.

The USA is working all out to help Ukraine with real-time intelligence on airstrikes, etc, to give them as much advantage as possible, so that NATO stays together this winter.

These next few weeks and months will be critical for the future of NATO and Ukraine.

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