Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are strong indications that Belarus may join Russia in the war. What happens if they do? WWIII?

It is not a real country, Belarus. It’s effectively a part of Russia, under Putin’s actual control.

I agree. I don’t think anything happens except maybe some more soldiers and equipment are sent to fight. However, I think the surrounding countries like Poland, get really nervous.

At this point, the Belarus leader may well be considering his options. He knows Putin can't last that long, and that tying himself to this war will just bring him down as well. I think he tries to avoid direct Belarus involvement of troops, to plausibly deny Belarus took part when everything comes to a bloody end.

And if he sends his army to Ukraine there will be fewer troops at home to protect against domestic uprisings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

That is not enough to take any part of the city. If the Ukraine have harden the city and put 150-200k defenders in it will take 650k or more and that will be with over 250k dead on the Russians side. It’s going to be a blood bath. Offering them Russian citizenship is not a big deal. Doubt many will be live to take the deal.

Sending them to do the kidnappings, torture, rapes, which ordinary Russian soldiers may not be able to stomach.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

That is not enough to take any part of the city. If the Ukraine have harden the city and put 150-200k defenders in it will take 650k or more and that will be with over 250k dead on the Russians side. It’s going to be a blood bath. Offering them Russian citizenship is not a big deal. Doubt many will be live to take the deal.

Sending them to do the kidnappings, torture, rapes, which ordinary Russian soldiers may not be able to stomach.

They're already doing all that

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

Some of these guys?

WASHINGTON — The artillery barrage was so intense that the American commandos dived into foxholes for protection, emerging covered in flying dirt and debris to fire back at a column of tanks advancing under the heavy shelling. It was the opening salvo in a nearly four-hour assault in February by around 500 pro-Syrian government forces — including Russian mercenaries — that threatened to inflame already-simmering tensions between Washington and Moscow.

In the end, 200 to 300 of the attacking fighters were killed. The others retreated under merciless airstrikes from the United States, returning later to retrieve their battlefield dead. None of the Americans at the small outpost in eastern Syria — about 40 by the end of the firefight — were harmed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

That is not enough to take any part of the city. If the Ukraine have harden the city and put 150-200k defenders in it will take 650k or more and that will be with over 250k dead on the Russians side. It’s going to be a blood bath. Offering them Russian citizenship is not a big deal. Doubt many will be live to take the deal.

Sending them to do the kidnappings, torture, rapes, which ordinary Russian soldiers may not be able to stomach.

You think a bunch of Syrians will not stand out in the Ukraine? Those volunteers will end up dead and left to rot.

[Anonymous]

The Russians are advancing on Kyiv. I’m not saying they’ll get the political victory they want, but they will probably end up winning from a military standpoint, even if it takes much longer than anyone thought it would.

[Anonymous]

UKRAINE, NOT THE UKRAINE. GODDAMN.

[Anonymous]

Francis Fukuyama - no friend of the Democrats - thinks Biden has been making the right moves and that the Russians will end up losing.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

What about transferring them through Georgia? Georgia is certainly no friend of Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE, NOT THE UKRAINE. GODDAMN.

What's the difference? (this is a real questions, not a political argument)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE, NOT THE UKRAINE. GODDAMN.

What's the difference? (this is a real questions, not a political argument)

The Ukraine is considered offensive. It’s roughly analogous to saying na Ukraine in Russian, rather than v Ukraine. The former implies a region that is “at the edge” of something else (aka Russia) and sort of undercuts the notion of Ukraine as an independent state, while the latter does not. The word “Ukraine” itself is a combination of the words “y kray.” A kray is a region. Y is a preposition meaning “near.” So it literally means something like “near the region” or a “frontier region.”

I hope that’s clear. I know Russian but am not fluent, so if anyone who is fluent finds anything wrong with what I wrote, please correct it.

[Anonymous]

Adding one more thing: since “Ukraine” means “frontier region” saying “the Ukraine” means “the frontier region” and implies Ukraine is not a sovereign country, but is rather a frontier region of Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE, NOT THE UKRAINE. GODDAMN.

What's the difference? (this is a real questions, not a political argument)

It's just how things are called, PP.

I'm French. I wouldn't want you calling my country "the France". It's called "France".
It's "Great Britain", not "the Great Britain". However, it's "the United Kingdom".
It's "Germany", not "the Germany".
It's "Estonia", not "the Estonia".

Using language incorrectly marks you as ignorant, and therefore less credible.

[Anonymous]

Adding one more thing: since “Ukraine” means “frontier region” saying “the Ukraine” means “the frontier region” and implies Ukraine is not a sovereign country, but is rather a frontier region of Russia.

The name is not important. They could call it Putinville and I would still support their right to govern themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Adding one more thing: since “Ukraine” means “frontier region” saying “the Ukraine” means “the frontier region” and implies Ukraine is not a sovereign country, but is rather a frontier region of Russia.

The name is not important. They could call it Putinville and I would still support their right to govern themselves.

No one is disputing that … not sure of what your point is.