Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are strong indications that Belarus may join Russia in the war. What happens if they do? WWIII?

It is not a real country, Belarus. It’s effectively a part of Russia, under Putin’s actual control.

I agree. I don’t think anything happens except maybe some more soldiers and equipment are sent to fight. However, I think the surrounding countries like Poland, get really nervous.

Why? Belarus committing troops in Ukraine removes them from Poland’s border. Poland is also a NATO country. Any attack on Poland is an attack on NATO. Belarus will enjoy the same regime of sanctions Russia does. Nbd for us or NATO.

[Anonymous]

Apparently Russians planes are now targeting the Belarus border to provoke them to join in with their own troops and weapons, as if the attack had come from Ukrainian planes.

Ukraine sent a warning after it apparently witnessed Russian planes start from Ukraine territory and prepare to bomb right over the border into Belarus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Apparently Russians planes are now targeting the Belarus border to provoke them to join in with their own troops and weapons, as if the attack had come from Ukrainian planes.

Ukraine sent a warning after it apparently witnessed Russian planes start from Ukraine territory and prepare to bomb right over the border into Belarus.

Link?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Apparently Russians planes are now targeting the Belarus border to provoke them to join in with their own troops and weapons, as if the attack had come from Ukrainian planes.

Ukraine sent a warning after it apparently witnessed Russian planes start from Ukraine territory and prepare to bomb right over the border into Belarus.

Link?

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-russian-aircraft-fired-belarus-ukrainian-air-space-2022-03-11/

[Anonymous]

Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

How does it work?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

Russians announced they will heavily attack all arms shipment. The window for sending in arms has closed or closing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

Russians announced they will heavily attack all arms shipment. The window for sending in arms has closed or closing.

Lol. Just like the US stopped weapons coming in to Iraq from Iran. Or into Vietnam from anywhere.

The western borders of Ukraine are huge, and far away.

Russia will be lucky to hit one truck actually carrying anything of value. They will end up blowing up lots of humanitarian aid probably.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

Russians announced they will heavily attack all arms shipment. The window for sending in arms has closed or closing.

Lol. Just like the US stopped weapons coming in to Iraq from Iran. Or into Vietnam from anywhere.

The western borders of Ukraine are huge, and far away.

Russia will be lucky to hit one truck actually carrying anything of value. They will end up blowing up lots of humanitarian aid probably.

Weren’t the weapons in Iraq in 2003 and beyond there from before America’s invasion?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

Russians announced they will heavily attack all arms shipment. The window for sending in arms has closed or closing.

The window for sending them openly in big convoys will not close until the Russians hit the first convoy, which, I have to believe, are driven by Ukrainians inside Ukraine.

Also, if donating countries have any wits about them, since the threat, convoys should be accompanied by soldiers with surface to air weapons, and donating countries should be passing intelligence to UKR about convoy threats.

Even if the Russians successfully attack the large convoys, you can bet that arms will still flow through multiple unofficial border points. I think it will be hard to stop. But attacks would definitely decrease the rate of weapons shipments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

Russians announced they will heavily attack all arms shipment. The window for sending in arms has closed or closing.

The window for sending them openly in big convoys will not close until the Russians hit the first convoy, which, I have to believe, are driven by Ukrainians inside Ukraine.

Also, if donating countries have any wits about them, since the threat, convoys should be accompanied by soldiers with surface to air weapons, and donating countries should be passing intelligence to UKR about convoy threats.

Even if the Russians successfully attack the large convoys, you can bet that arms will still flow through multiple unofficial border points. I think it will be hard to stop. But attacks would definitely decrease the rate of weapons shipments.

Agree, convoys should be done with intel, alerts and an armed convoy equipped to shoot down anything that comes their way.

[Anonymous]

Fascinating (and long) Twitter thread about why the incompetence and ineffectiveness of the Russian Army is a feature not a bug.

This guy has had several really, really informative threads. Worth checking out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s see what happens when counter battery system get in country. The Russians will have to move their artillery in 2–3 minutes after their first firing.

How does it work?

There are multiple portable radar system that pulses, track the income shells back to the firing position, rely those coordinates to artillery system which fire on the position. The friendly rounds are in the air before the incoming shells have reached their apogee.

[Anonymous]

Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is outsourcing their next phase of fighting to 16,000 middle eastern men from Syria. They say these men are experts in urban combat and will offer Russian citizenship. Meanwhile the 300 advisors (CIA and DOD) are having fun outside Kyiv.

That is not enough to take any part of the city. If the Ukraine have harden the city and put 150-200k defenders in it will take 650k or more and that will be with over 250k dead on the Russians side. It’s going to be a blood bath. Offering them Russian citizenship is not a big deal. Doubt many will be live to take the deal.