Reply to Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]PRE-K 3

Garrison Elementary School	In-boundary	Waitlisted - #7	
2	Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #11	
3	H.D. Cooke Elementary School		Waitlisted - #32	
4	Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #111	
5	John Lewis Elementary School		Waitlisted - #34	
6	Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #126	
7	Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS		Waitlisted - #210	
8	Hyde-Addison Elementary School		Waitlisted - #139	
9	Seaton Elementary School		Waitlisted - #7	
10	Military Road Early Learning Center		Waitlisted - #5	
11	Tubman Elementary School		Waitlisted - #36[/quote]

LN here:

You have a good chance at several of these:

Garrison Elementary School	In-boundary	Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance. 
Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot. 
H.D. Cooke Elementary School		Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot. 
Seaton Elementary School		Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+.
Military Road Early Learning Center		Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year.

All the others, you're not going to get an offer from. [/quote]

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