Alan Lichtman correctly predicted last elections
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
You mean like Democrats in 2020 and 2024 (and before)? https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/03/one-billion-dark-money-2020-electioncycle/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/politics/democrats-dark-money-donors.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/politics/dark-money-democrats-joe-biden/index.html https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/03/unprecedented-surge-in-dark-money-floods-2024-elections/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/pro-biden-dark-money-group-invs/index.html |
Anonymous
There were 8 candidates, several of whom were moderate, who entered the race and dropped out before the first primary. 4 other candidates, 3 of whom were bat-sh*t crazy (Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy). Hutchinson was moderate and critical of Trump. He qualified for one debate and never got more than 2% of the vote. He had the lowest vote total in the Iowa caucuses and dropped out. So, where are these candidate that would have this election wrapped? The majority of them never broke 10%. Only Haley did and she was still only a distant second. Dean Phillips is 55 years old and moderate. He wanted to challenge Biden and yet never broke 10% of the Democratic vote, except for New Hampshire where Biden did not make it onto the ballot and Biden still won almost 80% of the vote as a write-in candidate. Phillips dropped out after Super Tuesday after he had gotten zero delegates in the various primaries up through Super Tuesday. So, other than wishful thinking, who are these younger candidates that you think would sweep the popular vote if given the chance? Where do you think you are going to materialize candidates who are both interested in running, have national name recognition, and have enough of a following that upset the party leading candidates? Offer one name for each side who you think could possibly win even one quarter of the electoral candidates of their party. |
Anonymous
You obviously did not pay attention to the 2022 or 2023 elections. In both elections, post-overturn of RvW, wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, the young, 18-25 and 26-35 demographics came out in record numbers. These categories typically range from about 20% for off-year elections to about 40% for presidential elections. Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Virginia all had abortion rights as a major item on the ballots and in each case, the two lowest voting demographics came out nearly double what they normally show (between 40-65% of those registered in those age brackets) and they voted between 70-85% in favor of abortion rights. Biden and state candidates will be pushing abortion rights as a critical platform and the youth vote is likely to once again show up in record numbers to protect their reproductive rights. And it isn't just young women, but young men who also want their partners to have the right to reproductive choice. The Republican party did not heed the warning signs in 2022 or 2023, and the Democratic party will once again put this issue front and center of their platform and once again, young voters will turn out in record numbers to preserve their right to reproductive choice. |
Anonymous
And Trump isn't? |
Anonymous
The very states that are a battleground where Biden needs the youth vote have already protected abortion rights. You’re counting on youth going out to vote for a disappointing candidate to protect women in other states, and often in a way that conflicts with the message they want to send to the Dems for a more pressing concern in their minds (Israel). It’s not that clear cut. |
Anonymous
It is clear as day. Young voters want an anti-women, anti-Palestine, anti-minority rights, anti-climate solutions candidate like trump in power like they want a hole in the head. They are motivated to turn out. Very motivated. |
Anonymous
And yet polls don’t support that theory. Youth turnout is depressed not up. Republican voters are more motivated than Dems. |
Anonymous
Youth vote was up in some states and down in others in 2022. Among the states where it was up are battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. From the Hill..... Nearly 30 percent of young adults between the ages 18 and 29 are estimated to have voted in the 2022 midterm elections, marking the second-highest youth turnout in three decades. That’s according to new research from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, or CIRCLE. Although votes are still being counted in races across the country, “it’s clear that young people had a major impact on the 2022 midterms,” the report reads. Figures also indicate youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states where exit poll data are available. In Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, turnout for this age group was measured at 31 percent compared with 27 percent overall. However, totals may shift in the coming days as outcomes are finalized. |
Anonymous
| Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade. |
Anonymous
This is called opinion shaping. |
Anonymous
I believe that Dan Goldman is up and coming for the Dems. He is smart. Charismatic, good looking, and vastly wealthy but no scandal. In 2028, he will have 6 years experience as a member of Congress so he is a great candidate for President. |
Anonymous
Is that why Republicans have been winning all those special elections? |
Anonymous
Republicans like to keep running into the brick wall of reality. |
Anonymous
Honestly I don't think it's "Israel/Palestine" at this point- its a basic difference of opinion where the older generation think that the United States is the wealthiest, most powerful global superpower that has an obligation to bail out our allies and support the world order. The youth grew up exposed to crumbing schools with potholed roads- they are nominating their cities for dominos to fix the potholes in the roads. In a nutshell- the older people know they are rich an the younger generations feel like they are POOR, even the ones who are very very wealthy and doing well for themselves such as people in my social circle which is NW/NE DC openly acknowledge that they bough their homes with family help, its impossible otherwise,sometimes they even acknowledge that parents pay for their kids activities/tuition. It's pervasive, the sense that you as a top 5% + are not able to pay your own way and that begs the question- what about everyone else? Younger people know that the US isn't a wealthy country anymore, they feel it and through their own travel or social media they can see other countries and the lifestyle there and want to know why we are giving away our tax money to support people who seem to be wealthier than us. The infrastructure in developing nations has surpassed ours at a rapid pace- everywhere is Japan now. Countries that receive aid from us have stuff that we are told we cant afford like parental leave, bullet trains, cheap health care and education systems. This sense is emotional- its better to be a middle class working class person in USA than equivalent anywhere else but it is the perception and once someone feels poor or that they are in a state of scarcity, no amount of facts can talk them out of that feeling and Americans born after 2000 feel like we are a poor, cash strapped, crumbling country that is falling behind and getting scammed, all of congress looks like senior citizens getting scammed. |
Anonymous
Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care. You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women |