Alan Lichtman correctly predicted last elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a judgement based assessment and by my count, and I’m no Trump fan, Biden is just on the precipice. Doesn’t seem as sure as the headline. Though I assume he’s got a detailed methodology to counter individual bias, I see a very rocky road.

FWIW Lichtman hasn’t decided yet but he does think Democrats were smart to nominate Biden again in a drama-free primary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who likes Biden right now? Last election it was more Trump lost than Biden won. Where are people excited to reelect him? If he wins it’s because a third party took a lot of votes away from Trump.

That is every election for the most part. People vote to protect their families from the worst option. That Trump is the worst option is even more clear than it was in 2020. The GOP made a big mistake in nominating the same candidate that lost last time around. Here is an obvious tip...don't nominate proven losers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who likes Biden right now? Last election it was more Trump lost than Biden won. Where are people excited to reelect him? If he wins it’s because a third party took a lot of votes away from Trump.

That is every election for the most part. People vote to protect their families from the worst option. That Trump is the worst option is even more clear than it was in 2020. The GOP made a big mistake in nominating the same candidate that lost last time around. Here is an obvious tip...don't nominate proven losers.

I agree in theory, but if Republicans nominated anyone besides Trump, he would have said that the primaries were rigged by the RNC, refused to endorse the nominee, and Biden would have won all 50 states. Republicans were stuck: Either nominate Trump or suffer the biggest defeat in history.

[Anonymous]

I wish we could pin these ridiculous threads.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think that Lichtman is correct. I think that ultimately, people are too disgusted with Trump to vote for him. While he will have his fans and he must be the luckiest person ever, there's a sense of balance that will come into play and even though I will not vote for either Biden or Trump, there's enough people who are so scared of Trump that they will vote for whomever runs against him. People are emotional creatures - NOT rational.

By not voting, you are essentially voting for trump especially if you are in a swing state. That's not very rational either.

[Anonymous]

I feel like GOP sends any other young competent reasonably moderate and sophisticated non nutjob candidate in v Biden, they got this election wrapped. If Dems had any younger moderate Dem who had any record of achievement and basically just looked the part of POTUS with gravitas, they would win hands down v the Orange Fool. Ironic both are in such dire straits. Unsure if this is a pathetic warning on our culture that we can't produce anyone worthy or anyone interested in the biggest job in the country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who likes Biden right now? Last election it was more Trump lost than Biden won. Where are people excited to reelect him? If he wins it’s because a third party took a lot of votes away from Trump.

I don't like or dislike Biden -- I don't know him personally. But I do like democracy and women's rights and protecting the planet and being part of a global community. And I very much dislike wanna-be-dictators and self-dealing criminals whose only reason for running is to avoid jail time.

So, I think I know who I'm voting for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like GOP sends any other young competent reasonably moderate and sophisticated non nutjob candidate in v Biden, they got this election wrapped. If Dems had any younger moderate Dem who had any record of achievement and basically just looked the part of POTUS with gravitas, they would win hands down v the Orange Fool. Ironic both are in such dire straits. Unsure if this is a pathetic warning on our culture that we can't produce anyone worthy or anyone interested in the biggest job in the country.

Agree on all counts

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who likes Biden right now? Last election it was more Trump lost than Biden won. Where are people excited to reelect him? If he wins it’s because a third party took a lot of votes away from Trump.

I don't like or dislike Biden -- I don't know him personally. But I do like democracy and women's rights and protecting the planet and being part of a global community. And I very much dislike wanna-be-dictators and self-dealing criminals whose only reason for running is to avoid jail time.

So, I think I know who I'm voting for.

So in a "global community", if there's a zero sum game on resources, whose side are you on? Your country or the opposing country?

[Anonymous]

Biden is way too old for 4 more years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

Agree

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:From immigration reform, aiding Russia against Ukraine, stoking protests on campus and tanking the economy, the GOP is doing everything it can to ensure things go wrong.

You are 100% delusional. Good grief.
NP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

The youth seem to be very engaged right now. unless they want Netanyahu's bestie, trump, in the white house, they will will turn out.