Alan Lichtman correctly predicted last elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

When push comes to shove, young women, facing a life of uncertainty and essential enslavement to Christian fundamentalists, are going to vote for Democrats. I don’t think you understand what bodily autonomy means.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

The young adults are not the ones that are leading the protests on Gaza. The young adults that show up are like lemmings. The true voice behind the Gaza protests are organized pro-Pallastinian organizers who go and draw in students who are willing to join the protests. In most of the camps that have been dispersed, there is a significant group of non-students who come on campuses and start the protests.

As someone else has pointed out, people vote for their self-interests. Abortion as a right, directly affects all of the young voters who are not included in the polls, but who will show up to vote to preserve their right to reproductive freedom (both young men and young women). Young voters may want to protest, but they will not cast their vote based on a war half a world away which doesn't directly affect them.

Same with the border. The southern border is a very significant issue in TX, NM, AZ and CA. But outside of those states, it's not an issue that makes voters come out of the woodwork to vote.

The war in Gaza will not have a significant impact on the November elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

The young adults are not the ones that are leading the protests on Gaza. The young adults that show up are like lemmings. The true voice behind the Gaza protests are organized pro-Pallastinian organizers who go and draw in students who are willing to join the protests. In most of the camps that have been dispersed, there is a significant group of non-students who come on campuses and start the protests.

As someone else has pointed out, people vote for their self-interests. Abortion as a right, directly affects all of the young voters who are not included in the polls, but who will show up to vote to preserve their right to reproductive freedom (both young men and young women). Young voters may want to protest, but they will not cast their vote based on a war half a world away which doesn't directly affect them.

Same with the border. The southern border is a very significant issue in TX, NM, AZ and CA. But outside of those states, it's not an issue that makes voters come out of the woodwork to vote.

The war in Gaza will not have a significant impact on the November elections.

I'm worried it will. Also I'm worried that - unfairly - Biden is seen as not doing right by the people who like Israel and the people who want to destroy Israel. Both groups are unhappy now. I'm worried!

I don't know substantively what the heck he could have done differently to support an ally that seems to be going off the rails after that horrific attack by Hamas. Communications wise there's probably more he could have done and been doing. It's a mess and I'm worried it's become Biden's mess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

When push comes to shove, young women, facing a life of uncertainty and essential enslavement to Christian fundamentalists, are going to vote for Democrats. I don’t think you understand what bodily autonomy means.

Doubt it, I think they will stay home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

The young adults are not the ones that are leading the protests on Gaza. The young adults that show up are like lemmings. The true voice behind the Gaza protests are organized pro-Pallastinian organizers who go and draw in students who are willing to join the protests. In most of the camps that have been dispersed, there is a significant group of non-students who come on campuses and start the protests.

As someone else has pointed out, people vote for their self-interests. Abortion as a right, directly affects all of the young voters who are not included in the polls, but who will show up to vote to preserve their right to reproductive freedom (both young men and young women). Young voters may want to protest, but they will not cast their vote based on a war half a world away which doesn't directly affect them.

Same with the border. The southern border is a very significant issue in TX, NM, AZ and CA. But outside of those states, it's not an issue that makes voters come out of the woodwork to vote.

The war in Gaza will not have a significant impact on the November elections.

It’s not true that the youth vote isn’t showing up in the polls, and there are additional specific polls targeted towards the youth vote that are showing dampened enthusiasm for Biden.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

When push comes to shove, young women, facing a life of uncertainty and essential enslavement to Christian fundamentalists, are going to vote for Democrats. I don’t think you understand what bodily autonomy means.

Doubt it, I think they will stay home.

Their moms are going to march them to the polls if they waiver . They will not stay home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

The young adults are not the ones that are leading the protests on Gaza. The young adults that show up are like lemmings. The true voice behind the Gaza protests are organized pro-Pallastinian organizers who go and draw in students who are willing to join the protests. In most of the camps that have been dispersed, there is a significant group of non-students who come on campuses and start the protests.

As someone else has pointed out, people vote for their self-interests. Abortion as a right, directly affects all of the young voters who are not included in the polls, but who will show up to vote to preserve their right to reproductive freedom (both young men and young women). Young voters may want to protest, but they will not cast their vote based on a war half a world away which doesn't directly affect them.

Same with the border. The southern border is a very significant issue in TX, NM, AZ and CA. But outside of those states, it's not an issue that makes voters come out of the woodwork to vote.

The war in Gaza will not have a significant impact on the November elections.

I'm worried it will. Also I'm worried that - unfairly - Biden is seen as not doing right by the people who like Israel and the people who want to destroy Israel. Both groups are unhappy now. I'm worried!

I don't know substantively what the heck he could have done differently to support an ally that seems to be going off the rails after that horrific attack by Hamas. Communications wise there's probably more he could have done and been doing. It's a mess and I'm worried it's become Biden's mess.

It is a manufactured issue for the US election. PPs in other threads have shared links to reputable outlets showing so. And if Trump ends up winning, then the fascist United States will give Netanyahu its blessing to completely destroy Gaza.

[Anonymous]

What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

Parties usually switch after 8 years of the same no matter what, so you’re not saying anything revelatory here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

I like Biden. And if the GOP can nominate someone who isn't a complete lunatic in 2028, then good for them! It'd be a gd relief to have an R nominee with whom I have reasonable policy disagreements instead of you taking a giant orange s**t on the ground and telling me it's gd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

Biden has done a fine job. Especially when you consider where we were on 20 Jan 2021. Fresh off an attempted coup, in the middle of a global pandemic, economy in the toilet, etc.

Biden is not particularly charismatic and there are policy choices that I disagree with. But, the u.s. economy is incredibly (and surprisingly) strong, unemployment at all time lows, etc. If everyone has time to be concerned about transgender rights, they are clearly not looking for their next meal.

If Congress would only get to work on immigration and debt, working with the White House - we’d be in great shape.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

Biden has done a fine job. Especially when you consider where we were on 20 Jan 2021. Fresh off an attempted coup, in the middle of a global pandemic, economy in the toilet, etc.

Biden is not particularly charismatic and there are policy choices that I disagree with. But, the u.s. economy is incredibly (and surprisingly) strong, unemployment at all time lows, etc. If everyone has time to be concerned about transgender rights, they are clearly not looking for their next meal.

If Congress would only get to work on immigration and debt, working with the White House - we’d be in great shape.

+1

Biden’s done a great job and generally speaking the only retorts to that are pure right wing fantasy or something almost totally outside his control (but that the Democrats attempted to address only to be shut down by the GOP).

Trump won the Maryland primary with 75% of the vote, with Haley getting about 25%. That’s a klaxon and flashing lights for the GOP, that their voters are willing to take the time to go vote against Trump for a woman who dropped out months ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

The young adults are not the ones that are leading the protests on Gaza. The young adults that show up are like lemmings. The true voice behind the Gaza protests are organized pro-Pallastinian organizers who go and draw in students who are willing to join the protests. In most of the camps that have been dispersed, there is a significant group of non-students who come on campuses and start the protests.

As someone else has pointed out, people vote for their self-interests. Abortion as a right, directly affects all of the young voters who are not included in the polls, but who will show up to vote to preserve their right to reproductive freedom (both young men and young women). Young voters may want to protest, but they will not cast their vote based on a war half a world away which doesn't directly affect them.

Same with the border. The southern border is a very significant issue in TX, NM, AZ and CA. But outside of those states, it's not an issue that makes voters come out of the woodwork to vote.

The war in Gaza will not have a significant impact on the November elections.

I'm worried it will. Also I'm worried that - unfairly - Biden is seen as not doing right by the people who like Israel and the people who want to destroy Israel. Both groups are unhappy now. I'm worried!

I don't know substantively what the heck he could have done differently to support an ally that seems to be going off the rails after that horrific attack by Hamas. Communications wise there's probably more he could have done and been doing. It's a mess and I'm worried it's become Biden's mess.

Damn right it's Biden's mess!! As an avid Trump hater, I am so angry at Biden for his incompetence. Anyone reasonably aged and competent is a sure winner v Trump but no, it's the ultimate politician Biden who's lost his marbles running the show. After 30k dead, it's a bit too late to suggest he's suddenly now worried about humanitarian concerns no? He was always pro Israel and he either needed to have the intelligence and wisdom of foresight not to get to this messy point or he needed to own up to where his loyalties lie. The back tracking and insincerity contributes to his mess!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

Biden has done a fine job. Especially when you consider where we were on 20 Jan 2021. Fresh off an attempted coup, in the middle of a global pandemic, economy in the toilet, etc.

Biden is not particularly charismatic and there are policy choices that I disagree with. But, the u.s. economy is incredibly (and surprisingly) strong, unemployment at all time lows, etc. If everyone has time to be concerned about transgender rights, they are clearly not looking for their next meal.

If Congress would only get to work on immigration and debt, working with the White House - we’d be in great shape.

+1

OMG you've lost your mind. Biden can't do shit. He's basically re-enacting Trumps policies!

Seriously? Like addressing debt and immigration is as easy as waving your presidential wand in Congress?

Oh no my friend, he has dug us into a whole with 100% tariffs to come on China, Gaza political mess, debt forgiveness to those he wants voting for him and a disaster on the immigration front. You like Biden I get that except you have nothing to substantiate he is anything better than Trump.

Abortion is not a Trump thing it's a GOP thing. Right wing GOP is there regardless of Trump!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What I think is pathetic is how easily people bash the obvious evil of Trump while not blinking an eye and accepting the mess that's Jos Biden. I guarantee that in 4 years if Biden is elected, GOP will win the Presidency with any candidate that isn't like Trump. Kamala/Biden is a dangerous combo of idiocy and mediocrity that we have not imagined because we're so busy fearing Trump. Not that Trump is better. It I'm just saying, we are so F'd with Biden who is all we're left with.

Biden has done a fine job. Especially when you consider where we were on 20 Jan 2021. Fresh off an attempted coup, in the middle of a global pandemic, economy in the toilet, etc.

Biden is not particularly charismatic and there are policy choices that I disagree with. But, the u.s. economy is incredibly (and surprisingly) strong, unemployment at all time lows, etc. If everyone has time to be concerned about transgender rights, they are clearly not looking for their next meal.

If Congress would only get to work on immigration and debt, working with the White House - we’d be in great shape.

+1

Biden’s done a great job and generally speaking the only retorts to that are pure right wing fantasy or something almost totally outside his control (but that the Democrats attempted to address only to be shut down by the GOP).

Trump won the Maryland primary with 75% of the vote, with Haley getting about 25%. That’s a klaxon and flashing lights for the GOP, that their voters are willing to take the time to go vote against Trump for a woman who dropped out months ago.

Trump will go down badly come November. Only folks that want to go backwards in time are ol white guys and there are less and less of them every day