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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent.  In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward.  I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile.  I think this comes down to which voters turn out.[/quote]

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election. [/quote]

You obviously did not pay attention to the 2022 or 2023 elections.  In both elections, post-overturn of RvW, wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, the young, 18-25 and 26-35 demographics came out in record numbers.  These categories typically range from about 20% for off-year elections to about 40% for presidential elections.  Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Virginia all had abortion rights as a major item on the ballots and in each case, the two lowest voting demographics came out nearly double what they normally show (between 40-65% of those registered in those age brackets) and they voted between 70-85% in favor of abortion rights.  Biden and state candidates will be pushing abortion rights as a critical platform and the youth vote is likely to once again show up in record numbers to protect their reproductive rights.  And it isn't just young women, but young men who also want their partners to have the right to reproductive choice.

The Republican party did not heed the warning signs in 2022 or 2023, and the Democratic party will once again put this issue front and center of their platform and once again, young voters will turn out in record numbers to preserve their right to reproductive choice.[/quote]

The very states that are a battleground where Biden needs the youth vote have already protected abortion rights.  You’re counting on youth going out to vote for a disappointing candidate to protect women in other states, and often in a way that conflicts with the message they want to send to the Dems for a more pressing concern in their minds (Israel). It’s not that clear cut.[/quote]

It is clear as day.   Young voters want an anti-women, anti-Palestine,  anti-minority rights, anti-climate solutions candidate like trump in power like they want a hole in the head.  They are motivated to turn out.  Very motivated.[/quote]

And yet polls don’t support that theory.  Youth turnout is depressed not up. Republican voters are more motivated than Dems.  [/quote]

Youth vote was up in some states and down in others in 2022.   Among the states where it was up are battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

From the Hill.....

Nearly 30 percent of young adults between the ages 18 and 29 are estimated to have voted in the 2022 midterm elections, marking the second-highest youth turnout in three decades.

That’s according to new research from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, or CIRCLE.

Although votes are still being counted in races across the country, “it’s clear that young people had a major impact on the 2022 midterms,” the report reads.

Figures also indicate youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states where exit poll data are available. In Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, turnout for this age group was measured at 31 percent compared with 27 percent overall. However, totals may shift in the coming days as outcomes are finalized.[/quote]

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