Alan Lichtman correctly predicted last elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden is way too old for 4 more years

And Trump isn't?

He is but 4 year age gap is a big difference in the 80’s. Like children, age gaps do start to matter more once elderly

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

Not true that post menopausal women don't care. We remember the horror stories of women dying from self induced abortion and we never want to see that again! I also want unconditional reproductive rights not only for my daughter but great, great, great to infinity grandchildren for all women.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

You obviously did not pay attention to the 2022 or 2023 elections. In both elections, post-overturn of RvW, wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, the young, 18-25 and 26-35 demographics came out in record numbers. These categories typically range from about 20% for off-year elections to about 40% for presidential elections. Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Virginia all had abortion rights as a major item on the ballots and in each case, the two lowest voting demographics came out nearly double what they normally show (between 40-65% of those registered in those age brackets) and they voted between 70-85% in favor of abortion rights. Biden and state candidates will be pushing abortion rights as a critical platform and the youth vote is likely to once again show up in record numbers to protect their reproductive rights. And it isn't just young women, but young men who also want their partners to have the right to reproductive choice.

The Republican party did not heed the warning signs in 2022 or 2023, and the Democratic party will once again put this issue front and center of their platform and once again, young voters will turn out in record numbers to preserve their right to reproductive choice.

The very states that are a battleground where Biden needs the youth vote have already protected abortion rights. You’re counting on youth going out to vote for a disappointing candidate to protect women in other states, and often in a way that conflicts with the message they want to send to the Dems for a more pressing concern in their minds (Israel). It’s not that clear cut.

It is clear as day. Young voters want an anti-women, anti-Palestine, anti-minority rights, anti-climate solutions candidate like trump in power like they want a hole in the head. They are motivated to turn out. Very motivated.

And yet polls don’t support that theory. Youth turnout is depressed not up. Republican voters are more motivated than Dems.

Youth vote was up in some states and down in others in 2022. Among the states where it was up are battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

From the Hill.....

Nearly 30 percent of young adults between the ages 18 and 29 are estimated to have voted in the 2022 midterm elections, marking the second-highest youth turnout in three decades.

That’s according to new research from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, or CIRCLE.

Although votes are still being counted in races across the country, “it’s clear that young people had a major impact on the 2022 midterms,” the report reads.

Figures also indicate youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states where exit poll data are available. In Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, turnout for this age group was measured at 31 percent compared with 27 percent overall. However, totals may shift in the coming days as outcomes are finalized.

2022 isn’t 2024. I’m talking about turnout for Biden. A lot has happened at the state level to resolve abortion law in the last 2-3 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

You obviously did not pay attention to the 2022 or 2023 elections. In both elections, post-overturn of RvW, wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, the young, 18-25 and 26-35 demographics came out in record numbers. These categories typically range from about 20% for off-year elections to about 40% for presidential elections. Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Virginia all had abortion rights as a major item on the ballots and in each case, the two lowest voting demographics came out nearly double what they normally show (between 40-65% of those registered in those age brackets) and they voted between 70-85% in favor of abortion rights. Biden and state candidates will be pushing abortion rights as a critical platform and the youth vote is likely to once again show up in record numbers to protect their reproductive rights. And it isn't just young women, but young men who also want their partners to have the right to reproductive choice.

The Republican party did not heed the warning signs in 2022 or 2023, and the Democratic party will once again put this issue front and center of their platform and once again, young voters will turn out in record numbers to preserve their right to reproductive choice.

The very states that are a battleground where Biden needs the youth vote have already protected abortion rights. You’re counting on youth going out to vote for a disappointing candidate to protect women in other states, and often in a way that conflicts with the message they want to send to the Dems for a more pressing concern in their minds (Israel). It’s not that clear cut.

It is clear as day. Young voters want an anti-women, anti-Palestine, anti-minority rights, anti-climate solutions candidate like trump in power like they want a hole in the head. They are motivated to turn out. Very motivated.

The irony, which is lost on your hypothetical young voters, is that Palestine is VERY anti minority rights, very anti gay rights, very anti-women's rights and very anti abortion. WWYD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think this election or the 1-2 before it are typical elections where the populace is so inclined to keep an incumbent. In other words, I don’t think his pre Trump calls are that informative going forward. I think we are in new terrority and the polarization of the electorate and the feeling that half the voters are deeply unpopular with whoever will win, means that the stakes are higher and the swings more volatile. I think this comes down to which voters turn out.

Low turnout usually favors Republicans.

Youth will not turn out for this election.

You obviously did not pay attention to the 2022 or 2023 elections. In both elections, post-overturn of RvW, wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, the young, 18-25 and 26-35 demographics came out in record numbers. These categories typically range from about 20% for off-year elections to about 40% for presidential elections. Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Virginia all had abortion rights as a major item on the ballots and in each case, the two lowest voting demographics came out nearly double what they normally show (between 40-65% of those registered in those age brackets) and they voted between 70-85% in favor of abortion rights. Biden and state candidates will be pushing abortion rights as a critical platform and the youth vote is likely to once again show up in record numbers to protect their reproductive rights. And it isn't just young women, but young men who also want their partners to have the right to reproductive choice.

The Republican party did not heed the warning signs in 2022 or 2023, and the Democratic party will once again put this issue front and center of their platform and once again, young voters will turn out in record numbers to preserve their right to reproductive choice.

The very states that are a battleground where Biden needs the youth vote have already protected abortion rights. You’re counting on youth going out to vote for a disappointing candidate to protect women in other states, and often in a way that conflicts with the message they want to send to the Dems for a more pressing concern in their minds (Israel). It’s not that clear cut.

It is clear as day. Young voters want an anti-women, anti-Palestine, anti-minority rights, anti-climate solutions candidate like trump in power like they want a hole in the head. They are motivated to turn out. Very motivated.

The irony, which is lost on your hypothetical young voters, is that Palestine is VERY anti minority rights, very anti gay rights, very anti-women's rights and very anti abortion. WWYD?

Even with that irony, voting for trump will not be happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

This menopausal woman cares about her daughter’s rights.

[Anonymous]

Good chart that tracks Lichtman's Keys for 2024 election. It will be a nail biter:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Table

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

This menopausal woman cares about her daughter’s rights.

+1

And all of the other girls/women across the US.

Right here in the US, millions of girls/young women are MORE oppressed than I was at their age.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

Other way around. Menopausal women have lived and seen a lot of what nature and life dishes out. And the elderly remember clearly what life was like for women before contraception and abortion were legal. They are among the most furious.

Younger people have less concept of how quickly life can change on a dime or what a society in which women had no control over their lives was actually like. They don’t believe things can actually get worse.