Alan Lichtman correctly predicted last elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

[Anonymous]

remember 2016 polls?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

I have the dreamy haze but I made sure to remember how terrible it was, which his boosters reduce to “mean tweets.” Yes, there were “mean tweets” but it was what those mean tweets meant. Violence against targeted people, poor policies, destroying NATO, alienating our allies, trying to rig the stock market… it was a terrible time made worse by the clowning of his ratchet supporters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

I have the dreamy haze but I made sure to remember how terrible it was, which his boosters reduce to “mean tweets.” Yes, there were “mean tweets” but it was what those mean tweets meant. Violence against targeted people, poor policies, destroying NATO, alienating our allies, trying to rig the stock market… it was a terrible time made worse by the clowning of his ratchet supporters.

Most people don’t make a point of remembering though. The pandemic was bad for all kinds of reasons, not least of which it knocked us all off our trajectories and plans. That certainty we felt (good or bad) is gone. And Trump is associated with the certainty. What Biden is governing over is the wreckage that Trump left in terms of division and inflation. And yes Biden contributed to the inflation too. But it was going to happen.

People don’t appreciate we didn’t go into recession because it’s a counter factual. And it’s hard for Biden to run on how much worse the economy would have been under a second Trump term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

I have the dreamy haze but I made sure to remember how terrible it was, which his boosters reduce to “mean tweets.” Yes, there were “mean tweets” but it was what those mean tweets meant. Violence against targeted people, poor policies, destroying NATO, alienating our allies, trying to rig the stock market… it was a terrible time made worse by the clowning of his ratchet supporters.

Most people don’t make a point of remembering though. The pandemic was bad for all kinds of reasons, not least of which it knocked us all off our trajectories and plans. That certainty we felt (good or bad) is gone. And Trump is associated with the certainty. What Biden is governing over is the wreckage that Trump left in terms of division and inflation. And yes Biden contributed to the inflation too. But it was going to happen.

People don’t appreciate we didn’t go into recession because it’s a counter factual. And it’s hard for Biden to run on how much worse the economy would have been under a second Trump term.

People knew trump was terrible. He lost as an incumbent....that is what happens to presidents that do that perform.

[Anonymous]

That do not perform*

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

It reminds me of how memories become foggy with the passage of time.

Remember how so many people blamed Obama for the bank bailouts of 2008? How he "didn't hold bankers responsible"? All of that was executed and done during the GWB presidency, when Obama wasn't even in office.

2020 was so traumatic that people have PTSD from that year. Trump supporters and a good chunk of independents remember Trump's presidency prior to COVID and then pretend like Jan 2000 to Feb 2021 never happened (except for the part where the 'election was stolen' and complaining about BLM protests).

Memories are tricky. People experience trauma and then try to fool themselves that the traumatic events either didn't happen or were "not that bad."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

It reminds me of how memories become foggy with the passage of time.

Remember how so many people blamed Obama for the bank bailouts of 2008? How he "didn't hold bankers responsible"? All of that was executed and done during the GWB presidency, when Obama wasn't even in office.

2020 was so traumatic that people have PTSD from that year. Trump supporters and a good chunk of independents remember Trump's presidency prior to COVID and then pretend like Jan 2000 to Feb 2021 never happened (except for the part where the 'election was stolen' and complaining about BLM protests).

Memories are tricky. People experience trauma and then try to fool themselves that the traumatic events either didn't happen or were "not that bad."

I agree with the PP who said that once Trump starts talking, instead of the media making sense of his brain mush via assembled and selectively used quotes, people will remember. You don’t have to scratch too hard at trauma to remember. It’s buried but only barely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump.

Why would current polls not reflect that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump.

Why would current polls not reflect that?

Because the pollsters do not know what to do and haven’t for a while. Plus, they’re clearly doing something weird to sample voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

It reminds me of how memories become foggy with the passage of time.

Remember how so many people blamed Obama for the bank bailouts of 2008? How he "didn't hold bankers responsible"? All of that was executed and done during the GWB presidency, when Obama wasn't even in office.

2020 was so traumatic that people have PTSD from that year. Trump supporters and a good chunk of independents remember Trump's presidency prior to COVID and then pretend like Jan 2000 to Feb 2021 never happened (except for the part where the 'election was stolen' and complaining about BLM protests).

Memories are tricky. People experience trauma and then try to fool themselves that the traumatic events either didn't happen or were "not that bad."

It was really bad and I think it will be even worse this time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

It's not a matter of shooting the messenger. It's that the poll doesn't seem to align with what we're actually seeing.

It's a close race no matter what. Much too close for comfort - and boy if I don't think we're all going to h**l in a handbasket that half the country wants Trump back.

But I think we can see in every election since Dobbs that abortion matters more than polls are saying it does. Will it matter enough to bring Biden back? I sure as f**k hope so.

I am not a polls lolz person - I think we should pay attention to them, and also look how they are moving. But I think we need to look at them in context, too.

Polls also don't capture the dynamic of Trump continuing to malign election integrity and discourage mail-in voting. He's effectively telling people to wait in lines...but hold on, there's no point in waiting in lines because it's all a scam any way.

Yeah - there's that. I think they also don't capture just how much people hate Trump. You don't have to love Biden if you hate Trump.

But we'll see. We'll see! It might be that four years with Trump out of office has let people forget just how exhausting it was with him in the WH. I haven't forgotten - I am basically waking up in a cold sweat every morning at the idea of having him there again. But it's possible other people have gotten that dreamy haze about the past. I don't know.

It reminds me of how memories become foggy with the passage of time.

Remember how so many people blamed Obama for the bank bailouts of 2008? How he "didn't hold bankers responsible"? All of that was executed and done during the GWB presidency, when Obama wasn't even in office.

2020 was so traumatic that people have PTSD from that year. Trump supporters and a good chunk of independents remember Trump's presidency prior to COVID and then pretend like Jan 2000 to Feb 2021 never happened (except for the part where the 'election was stolen' and complaining about BLM protests).

Memories are tricky. People experience trauma and then try to fool themselves that the traumatic events either didn't happen or were "not that bad."

It was really bad and I think it will be even worse this time.

From the Trump supporters in my own life, this is the thing I hear the most often: "The economy was great under Trump! Markets were up, low inflation, low interest rates!"

They completely memory-hole the economic collapse of 2020 where tons of small businesses were suffering under Trump, millions were laid off, and the unemployment rate surged to nearly 15% (a rate not seen since the Great Depression). Where the stock market collapsed and then needed extraordinary resuscitation by the Fed.

It's wild. Those are the people who want Trump back. They act as if 2020 never happened, and even January 6 is part of the brain fog.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade.

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health of all women

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids. When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of abortions and that miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it. Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for unplanned/unwanted pregnancies only

That is a minority understanding. A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women who are dumbfounded by abortion being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity. Every single time. That is just the reality of how this is going.

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.

I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.

It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week. If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration. You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

And therein lies your error. It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34). Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls. But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling. The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling. It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them. In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia). In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year. Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.

Did you not read about the discontent with the youth vote right now? Those previous elections did not have the Gaza war in the news at the time.

[Anonymous]

Young adults don't really care that much about what's going on in Gaza when it comes to voting. The economy and jobs are what they are most concerned with.

The protests you see on campus is a small percentage of young adult voters.

Most people don't care about what goes in in foreign countries. They care about their own lives.