Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain what’s happening in Russia like I’m 5? Thank you.

Imagine the US hired the Oath Keepers to fight the drug war in central and south America, and then after it became a quagmire, the Oath Keepers decided to turn around and face US troops from Texas on their way to DC.

That is where we are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Woohoo - Amanpour is now taking the lead on CNN. Finally some real news/reporters. Now get Hertling on as a guest and we can get some actual insight.

I've been watching BBC. Is CNN finally getting up to speed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

These are hardcore bada$$e$. The guys who take sledgehammers to the heads of traitors who cross them. Once word of this spreads along the Russian front-line troops in Ukraine, it will likely cause a panic.

It is a good question. if I am a Russian troop in Ukraine, how do I know I am getting provisions or will get paid? Things in Ukraine could devolve for the Russians very quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[Yesterday] I returned from work insanely tired and went to bed immediately. I saw the news when I woke up. It’s like the start of the war, when we went to bed in a relatively familiar (but nonetheless terrible) situation, and the next morning you’re insanely scared for the lives of your loved ones.

At first, I thought this was just another hoax, but in the morning [on Saturday], I realized we’re living through another historic day. I never supported the Putin regime, but the prospect of rule-by-sledgehammer in our country horrifies me.

It’ll be the same story as when the Russian army challenge the military and economic strength of NATO — defeat. It’s not hard to guess what result this rebellion will have on the front lines.

I go to bed at around midnight [on Friday], look at the news like I always do, and I can’t believe what’s happening. At about 1:00 a.m., my 15-year-old sister comes out of her room and knocks on the bathroom door, saying, “Mom, mom, come out, the civil war has started.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/24/mom-come-out-the-civil-war-has-begun

Excellent. Let them start to get a taste of what they put Ukraine through. Did they think these Wagner guys rolled up to Ukrainian homes with bouquets of roses? No, they came for murder and rape.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

These are hardcore bada$$e$. The guys who take sledgehammers to the heads of traitors who cross them. Once word of this spreads along the Russian front-line troops in Ukraine, it will likely cause a panic.

It is a good question. if I am a Russian troop in Ukraine, how do I know I am getting provisions or will get paid? Things in Ukraine could devolve for the Russians very quickly.

The war in Ukraine is over. Whatever does or does not happen in Moscow and Russia, Ukraine has won.

[Anonymous]

So who is in control of the nukes pointed at the USA? Seems like a good time to launch and blame it on chaos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain what’s happening in Russia like I’m 5? Thank you.

It's a coup attempt

It's led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. He runs the Wagner Group, which is a mercenary force that has long been used by Russia to advance its interests in Syria and Africa. They are known for their brutality. There is a core group of soldiers but they are mostly made up of convicts. Prigozhin himself spent years in prison in the 80s for I believe robbery.

The Wagner Group has been heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, particularly in Bakhmut, which was the main front for many months. Tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides lost their lives there. Prigozhin has been very vocal in his criticism of regular Russian forces, in particular the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. This led to armed conflict between regular Russian forces and Wagner.

It's clear this coup attempt has been planned for a long time. Prigozhin is a war criminal, but he's extremely smart and charismatic. The immediate cause of this mutiny was the Russian army destroying a Wagner camp well behind the lines. Allegedly, more than 2000 Wagner soldiers died

And so now he's rolling towards Moscow.

It's unclear whether Putin and Shoigu command the loyalty of regular Russian military forces. Years of corruption, incompetence, and losses in Ukraine have taken their toll

Thus the drama

[Anonymous]

I have to wonder how many times Prigozhin watched Gladiator or Hunger Games?

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain what’s happening in Russia like I’m 5? Thank you.

Imagine the US hired the Oath Keepers to fight the drug war in central and south America, and then after it became a quagmire, the Oath Keepers decided to turn around and face US troops from Texas on their way to DC.

That is where we are.

To put this in more realistic terms, imagine that in the midst of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, thousands of Blackwater mercenaries landed in Jacksonville, Florida and took it over. Then, started marching on Washington, DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Woohoo - Amanpour is now taking the lead on CNN. Finally some real news/reporters. Now get Hertling on as a guest and we can get some actual insight.

I've been watching BBC. Is CNN finally getting up to speed?

So far so good. Amanpour is the only credible journalist they have and she's doing her thing with aplomb. If they switch back to Wolf, Anderson or any of the other idiotic newsreaders then I'll switch the channel. The FT is doing some solid print coverage as well.

(I don't get BBC unfortunately and usually rely on Bloomberg but this isn't in their wheelhouse)

[Anonymous]

Wagner will eventually run out of ammunition and weaponry unless a foreign entity steps in as a supplier, which is doubtful. They need Russian soldiers to join the fight. It’s a long shot. Definitely a diversion from war in Ukraine that helps Ukraine refortify and recover more of its land.

[Anonymous]

Has Fix News released a statement yet?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wagner will eventually run out of ammunition and weaponry unless a foreign entity steps in as a supplier, which is doubtful. They need Russian soldiers to join the fight. It’s a long shot. Definitely a diversion from war in Ukraine that helps Ukraine refortify and recover more of its land.

All they need is for Russian soldiers to not fight.

It's a long shot, yes, but Prigozhin has friends in lots of places. It's more of a longshot for Putin to come through this unscathed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So who is in control of the nukes pointed at the USA? Seems like a good time to launch and blame it on chaos.

Nukes are a different story. The Strategic Rocket Forces are generally very professional, low-humor types. Just like in the US, there are safeguards against unilateral actors launching or detonating a nuke. That said, there was a point in the 90's where senior commanders looking for a score did a bit of mischief.

The missile shot in 95 or the uranium in a suitcase in 92-93 type of thing:
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/1997/1201/6012264a.html?sh=4eb63be03f00

The time a nuclear sub was almost sold to a drug cartel:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/risky-business-soviet-union-almost-sold-submarine-drug-cartel-200226

This is why whomever is in power in Russia needs to be given unconditional, no-questions-asked, no-monkey-business support to help keep their nuclear arsenal safe. They need to understand that NATO and the US are not really their enemies at all and to cut it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wagner will eventually run out of ammunition and weaponry unless a foreign entity steps in as a supplier, which is doubtful. They need Russian soldiers to join the fight. It’s a long shot. Definitely a diversion from war in Ukraine that helps Ukraine refortify and recover more of its land.

No. It all depends on which way the Russian air forces goes. They may just stand down or join the rebels.