22% of MD’s cases and 50% of the deaths are in nursing homes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We should not be destroying so many livelihoods for this. Anyone who wishes to is free to stay home as long as they’d like. Others need to be free to earn a living. Nursing home residents should not drive public policy.

That's right, doctors, researchers and scientists should, and they're telling us to keep the economy shut down for now.

NO They. Are. NOT. Not uniformly, and not all across the country.

Exactly. This ER doctor who works in NYC says we need to open back up: https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

Ignore the fact that it's published in the NY Post. That doesn't change the fact that this is someone with experience working the frontlines.

+1
From the article, written by an ER doc in a poor area of NYC:

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New reporting on nursing home breaks down staff versus residents

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/pages/hcf-resources

I wish VA provided this level of indo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread.

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread.

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us.

Ok, but community spread does mean that you don't know where the virus came from. While you might not be able to identify patient zero as a resident, you can probably determine where a resident today contracted the virus. They just don't come into contact with that many people who don't live in the nursing home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We should not be destroying so many livelihoods for this. Anyone who wishes to is free to stay home as long as they’d like. Others need to be free to earn a living. Nursing home residents should not drive public policy.

That's right, doctors, researchers and scientists should, and they're telling us to keep the economy shut down for now.

NO They. Are. NOT. Not uniformly, and not all across the country.

Exactly. This ER doctor who works in NYC says we need to open back up: https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

Ignore the fact that it's published in the NY Post. That doesn't change the fact that this is someone with experience working the frontlines.

+1
From the article, written by an ER doc in a poor area of NYC:

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

Meanwhile, the other 99 ER doctors are still too busy to write an oped for the Post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We should not be destroying so many livelihoods for this. Anyone who wishes to is free to stay home as long as they’d like. Others need to be free to earn a living. Nursing home residents should not drive public policy.

That's right, doctors, researchers and scientists should, and they're telling us to keep the economy shut down for now.

NO They. Are. NOT. Not uniformly, and not all across the country.

Exactly. This ER doctor who works in NYC says we need to open back up: https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

Ignore the fact that it's published in the NY Post. That doesn't change the fact that this is someone with experience working the frontlines.

+1
From the article, written by an ER doc in a poor area of NYC:

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

Meanwhile, the other 99 ER doctors are still too busy to write an oped for the Post.

You really just can't help but hate on anything that doesn't comport with your pre-conceived notions.

You know that doctors do shift work and have days off, right? It doesn't take long to write an op-ed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We should not be destroying so many livelihoods for this. Anyone who wishes to is free to stay home as long as they’d like. Others need to be free to earn a living. Nursing home residents should not drive public policy.

That's right, doctors, researchers and scientists should, and they're telling us to keep the economy shut down for now.

NO They. Are. NOT. Not uniformly, and not all across the country.

Exactly. This ER doctor who works in NYC says we need to open back up: https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

Ignore the fact that it's published in the NY Post. That doesn't change the fact that this is someone with experience working the frontlines.

+1
From the article, written by an ER doc in a poor area of NYC:

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

Meanwhile, the other 99 ER doctors are still too busy to write an oped for the Post.

You really just can't help but hate on anything that doesn't comport with your pre-conceived notions.

You know that doctors do shift work and have days off, right? It doesn't take long to write an op-ed.

WTF, docs not doing enough you expect them to write for WaPo?

- np

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We should not be destroying so many livelihoods for this. Anyone who wishes to is free to stay home as long as they’d like. Others need to be free to earn a living. Nursing home residents should not drive public policy.

That's right, doctors, researchers and scientists should, and they're telling us to keep the economy shut down for now.

NO They. Are. NOT. Not uniformly, and not all across the country.

Exactly. This ER doctor who works in NYC says we need to open back up: https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

Ignore the fact that it's published in the NY Post. That doesn't change the fact that this is someone with experience working the frontlines.

+1
From the article, written by an ER doc in a poor area of NYC:

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

Meanwhile, the other 99 ER doctors are still too busy to write an oped for the Post.

You really just can't help but hate on anything that doesn't comport with your pre-conceived notions.

You know that doctors do shift work and have days off, right? It doesn't take long to write an op-ed.

WTF, docs not doing enough you expect them to write for WaPo?

- np

Is that what I said?

My point is that we shouldn't excoriate them if they decide to write an op-ed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pattern of nursing home infections is almost exactly the same in my state-- about a quarter of cases in LT care, and 50% of the fatalities.
It's both good information for community spread and a national disgrace/tragedy. It can be both.

OP here. Exactly. I said in my post how awful this is for these people. It is a tragedy. It also radically changes how we should be thinking about this pandemic and its impact on the general population.

It is also a tragedy to rot away in a nursing home until you’re 95 and eventually die from sitting in your feces and urine soaked infected bed sores- or severe dementia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pattern of nursing home infections is almost exactly the same in my state-- about a quarter of cases in LT care, and 50% of the fatalities.
It's both good information for community spread and a national disgrace/tragedy. It can be both.

OP here. Exactly. I said in my post how awful this is for these people. It is a tragedy. It also radically changes how we should be thinking about this pandemic and its impact on the general population.

It is also a tragedy to rot away in a nursing home until you’re 95 and eventually die from sitting in your feces and urine soaked infected bed sores- or severe dementia.

Ummm ... yes. I said it's a tragedy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pattern of nursing home infections is almost exactly the same in my state-- about a quarter of cases in LT care, and 50% of the fatalities.
It's both good information for community spread and a national disgrace/tragedy. It can be both.

OP here. Exactly. I said in my post how awful this is for these people. It is a tragedy. It also radically changes how we should be thinking about this pandemic and its impact on the general population.

It is also a tragedy to rot away in a nursing home until you’re 95 and eventually die from sitting in your feces and urine soaked infected bed sores- or severe dementia.

Ummm ... yes. I said it's a tragedy.

Covid at 80+ in a nursing home sounds like a better alternative

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread.

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us.

Ok, but community spread does mean that you don't know where the virus came from. While you might not be able to identify patient zero as a resident, you can probably determine where a resident today contracted the virus. They just don't come into contact with that many people who don't live in the nursing home.

I'm not even sure that's theoretically possible at this point. I suppose if you throw enough resources at the problem you can maybe trace the chain of transmission for more recent patients but you are never going to get to patient zero at this point. And it doesn't matter anyway. What does that get you at this point?

Even if we somehow seal these facilities off from the rest of the world, if they account for 22% of cases that means nearly 80% of the cases are not in nursing homes. If those 80% are plateauing or going down and it's only the cases in the nursing facilities that are going up, then I guess it could be reasonable to ignore them but I'm not sure that's really happening. It's the trend that matters here - not the absolute numbers - especially in a case like ours where there is no massive testing/tracing program in place.

The bottom line is you have a problem outside of the nursing facilities - you can't just ignore that 80% and what those cases are doing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pattern of nursing home infections is almost exactly the same in my state-- about a quarter of cases in LT care, and 50% of the fatalities.
It's both good information for community spread and a national disgrace/tragedy. It can be both.

OP here. Exactly. I said in my post how awful this is for these people. It is a tragedy. It also radically changes how we should be thinking about this pandemic and its impact on the general population.

It is also a tragedy to rot away in a nursing home until you’re 95 and eventually die from sitting in your feces and urine soaked infected bed sores- or severe dementia.

Ummm ... yes. I said it's a tragedy.

Covid at 80+ in a nursing home sounds like a better alternative

Exactly. So why are we destroying our country to save nursing home residents. It is literally insane.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread.

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us.

Hogan has already said he is not considering high occupancy living, like nursing homes, and I assume jails, as community spread for obvious reasons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread.

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us.

Hogan has already said he is not considering high occupancy living, like nursing homes, and I assume jails, as community spread for obvious reasons.

It makes sense. For very different reasons both places are locked places with residents who aren't free to come and go.