Reply to 22% of MD’s cases and 50% of the deaths are in nursing homes

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Reply to "22% of MD’s cases and 50% of the deaths are in nursing homes"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Except it IS community spread, and workers there can and do spread the infection outside of their workplace and into the community, including hospitals, other nursing homes, group homes, and prisons... all places with people highly likely to catch it, and perhaps die from it.

[/quote]

No. It’s not. Treat nursing home workers totally differently. You can isolate them until this is over. We need a strong public health response to this. This is NOT the same as general community spread. [/quote]

Unless all the residents/workers of these nursing homes took recent vacations to Wuhan, it IS community spread. Members of the COMMUNITY SPREAD the virus to workers and patients.

I get that you are advocating for some plan that isolates these sub-communities to allow the rest of society to open up, and there may very well be a way to do that if you can actually test and measure the spread of the virus elsewhere, but you don't get to just redefine established words and phrases that have real meaning and implications. Unless there is some data that shows the spread in these nursing homes is all due to resident patient zeros, the fact is the rest of society brought the virus to the nursing homes, not the other way around. So even if you isolate them, that means the virus is still floating around the rest of us. [/quote]

Ok, but community spread does mean that you don't know where the virus came from. While you might not be able to identify patient zero as a resident, [b]you can probably determine where a resident today contracted the virus[/b]. They just don't come into contact with that many people who don't live in the nursing home. [/quote]

I'm not even sure that's theoretically possible at this point. I suppose if you throw enough resources at the problem you can maybe trace the chain of transmission for more recent patients but you are never going to get to patient zero at this point. And it doesn't matter anyway. What does that get you at this point?

Even if we somehow seal these facilities off from the rest of the world, if they account for 22% of cases that means nearly 80% of the cases are not in nursing homes. If those 80% are plateauing or going down and it's only the cases in the nursing facilities that are going up, then I guess it could be reasonable to ignore them but I'm not sure that's really happening. It's the trend that matters here - not the absolute numbers - especially in a case like ours where there is no massive testing/tracing program in place.

The bottom line is you have a problem outside of the nursing facilities - you can't just ignore that 80% and what those cases are doing. [/quote]

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