Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous's hack onto 3 Russian TV stations and subsequent showing to all of Russia film from the shelling of Ukraine cities and killing of families helps:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/anonymous-wink-ivi-russia-24-channel-1-moscow-24-b2029915.html

But can't Elon Musk help to constantly send the images via Starlink to every Russian cell phone and wifi network ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

There is no end to that. Look at Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, or any other place that was subject to sanctions. Sanctions are ineffective against authoritarian regimes. I'm not saying we shouldn't implement them, just that it's not likely Putin will give in due to sanctions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

There is no end to that. Look at Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, or any other place that was subject to sanctions. Sanctions are ineffective against authoritarian regimes. I'm not saying we shouldn't implement them, just that it's not likely Putin will give in due to sanctions.

Russia was living a Western lifecycle for quite a while. In less than two weeks, they achieved North Korea status. It's going to be quite a shock to the system when the effect of these sanctions really kick in.

[Anonymous]

The military tactics haven't changed much in this East/ West conflict- this is just a replay of Russian tactics used against Ukraine during Stalin , during WWII and during Soviet occupation

What has changed is what can be exploited to spike it to Putin:

**** Russia has become economically dependent on the West over the last 20 years

***** Asymetric tactics like hacking, mass beaming of western media to get the truth to the average Russian

****** EU has an open supply route to send weapons to Ukraine through Poland and Romania - did NOT have that in WW II era or cold war

Lastly, it is almost April.... Spring is here....shut off the damn natural gas payments- F*ck Putin. Every European can put on a sweater, use green energy and get their natural gas from Norway or possibly Kuwaiit/ Qatar- the west did save their A** not that long ago.

Anyway, it is almost April... that is VERY different and easier to bear than if it were November.

Cut ALL SWIFT access, arrest his mistress and take his kids into custody at their Villa in Swizterland and cease all natural gas and oil purchases by EU to Russia NOW

[Anonymous]

A pastebin document supposedly verified by Bellingcat as an FSB officer's observations on the situation in Russia:

https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd?fbclid=IwAR0I-cq9cYP-q-QzRyclFwD3Q4-yd04nuqyPgQaMwRhTKlSVI2eaA0RiIXs

Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing. Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.

One passage I found particularly interesting was the comparison to Russia's war with Japan in the early 20th century -- an attempt to kick a supposedly weak foreign only to have Russian inadequacies revealed which, in turn, spiraled out of control until eventually you've got the Bolsheviks in power.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

There is no end to that. Look at Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, or any other place that was subject to sanctions. Sanctions are ineffective against authoritarian regimes. I'm not saying we shouldn't implement them, just that it's not likely Putin will give in due to sanctions.

Russia was living a Western lifecycle for quite a while. In less than two weeks, they achieved North Korea status. It's going to be quite a shock to the system when the effect of these sanctions really kick in.

Yes but you don't understand how authoritarian regimes work. It does not matter that it's a shock to the system, the regime will quickly turn brutal against its people, as is already happening in Russia. They welcome the brain drain and the sanctions because it means they permanently consolidate power.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I don't think they will overrun the country. They don't have the troops, and as it is, the Ukrainians are taking back territory when the Russians advance. Ukraine will receive a steady supply of weapons and, it appears, foreign volunteers with military experience, including highly trained special ops. 15,000 Soviets were killed in Afghanistan during their ten year war there, and they may have already lost as many as 10,000 now in less than two weeks. The loss of equipment is similar, and their ability to replace it will continue to shrink. Twitter has a video of a Russian train headed toward Ukraine carrying a hodge lodge of civilian vehicles to replace their lost military trucks, many of them already sporting the Z on their sides. So destroyed Red Army trucks are being replaced with Ivan the Plumber's old work van.

The only semi-successful part of this so far is the Russian advance in the south. With the Black Fleet off the coast, they could destroy Odessa and block anything coming into or out of Ukraine through the Black Sea, from where something like 60% of their wheat harvest is exported. This would have a huge impact on both Ukraine and the world. Maybe that would change the calculation of how aggressively outside countries might get involved. (Any experts out there have an idea if/how Ukraine could use a new supply of jets to attack those ships? Would it be too risky for the jets? Even if they get a supply from Poland or wherever, it will still be a limited force.)

This is not to say that it won't get far worse and far bloodier. It's just hard to imagine, given how big the losses have been for Russia so far, that this will go on for years the way it initially seemed. I would expect some kind of catastrophic action by Putin first.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

There is no end to that. Look at Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, or any other place that was subject to sanctions. Sanctions are ineffective against authoritarian regimes. I'm not saying we shouldn't implement them, just that it's not likely Putin will give in due to sanctions.

But neither Venezuela or NK are waging a war against their neighbors. It’s one thing to be sanctioned, and another sanctioned and bleeding money on an active war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I don't think they will overrun the country. They don't have the troops, and as it is, the Ukrainians are taking back territory when the Russians advance. Ukraine will receive a steady supply of weapons and, it appears, foreign volunteers with military experience, including highly trained special ops. 15,000 Soviets were killed in Afghanistan during their ten year war there, and they may have already lost as many as 10,000 now in less than two weeks. The loss of equipment is similar, and their ability to replace it will continue to shrink. Twitter has a video of a Russian train headed toward Ukraine carrying a hodge lodge of civilian vehicles to replace their lost military trucks, many of them already sporting the Z on their sides. So destroyed Red Army trucks are being replaced with Ivan the Plumber's old work van.

The only semi-successful part of this so far is the Russian advance in the south. With the Black Fleet off the coast, they could destroy Odessa and block anything coming into or out of Ukraine through the Black Sea, from where something like 60% of their wheat harvest is exported. This would have a huge impact on both Ukraine and the world. Maybe that would change the calculation of how aggressively outside countries might get involved. (Any experts out there have an idea if/how Ukraine could use a new supply of jets to attack those ships? Would it be too risky for the jets? Even if they get a supply from Poland or wherever, it will still be a limited force.)

This is not to say that it won't get far worse and far bloodier. It's just hard to imagine, given how big the losses have been for Russia so far, that this will go on for years the way it initially seemed. I would expect some kind of catastrophic action by Putin first.

The train with the hodge pledge equipment could be for propaganda video or smuggling their operatives under guise of displaced people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed.

I imagine that the economic sanctions will only get worse as Russia increases the brutality. How long can they afford to maintain the occupation of Ukraine under these crushing sanctions?

There is no end to that. Look at Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, or any other place that was subject to sanctions. Sanctions are ineffective against authoritarian regimes. I'm not saying we shouldn't implement them, just that it's not likely Putin will give in due to sanctions.

Russia was living a Western lifecycle for quite a while. In less than two weeks, they achieved North Korea status. It's going to be quite a shock to the system when the effect of these sanctions really kick in.

Yes but you don't understand how authoritarian regimes work. It does not matter that it's a shock to the system, the regime will quickly turn brutal against its people, as is already happening in Russia. They welcome the brain drain and the sanctions because it means they permanently consolidate power.

Not for a western country living high on the hog. There is a vibrant UC, UMC, and MC in Russia -- lots of poor as well. It will hit the others pretty bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The military tactics haven't changed much in this East/ West conflict- this is just a replay of Russian tactics used against Ukraine during Stalin , during WWII and during Soviet occupation

What has changed is what can be exploited to spike it to Putin:

**** Russia has become economically dependent on the West over the last 20 years

***** Asymetric tactics like hacking, mass beaming of western media to get the truth to the average Russian

****** EU has an open supply route to send weapons to Ukraine through Poland and Romania - did NOT have that in WW II era or cold war

Lastly, it is almost April.... Spring is here....shut off the damn natural gas payments- F*ck Putin. Every European can put on a sweater, use green energy and get their natural gas from Norway or possibly Kuwaiit/ Qatar- the west did save their A** not that long ago.

Anyway, it is almost April... that is VERY different and easier to bear than if it were November.

Cut ALL SWIFT access, arrest his mistress and take his kids into custody at their Villa in Swizterland and cease all natural gas and oil purchases by EU to Russia NOW

All of it except the bolded. Do not use loved ones as leverage, PP. It's morally wrong. Also, and more to the point, you could kill them and Putin wouldn't care one little bit!

[Anonymous]

Russia is going to have to rely largely on China for imports of materials, but the longer this goes on, the more it will drag on the global economy. I wonder how much China will tolerate that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch. They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.
What a third rate military power.

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger.

Not quite wasted. The world is a very dangerous place. That Russia can't compete means nothing if we are at war with China which is pretty darn likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The military tactics haven't changed much in this East/ West conflict- this is just a replay of Russian tactics used against Ukraine during Stalin , during WWII and during Soviet occupation

What has changed is what can be exploited to spike it to Putin:

**** Russia has become economically dependent on the West over the last 20 years

***** Asymetric tactics like hacking, mass beaming of western media to get the truth to the average Russian

****** EU has an open supply route to send weapons to Ukraine through Poland and Romania - did NOT have that in WW II era or cold war

Lastly, it is almost April.... Spring is here....shut off the damn natural gas payments- F*ck Putin. Every European can put on a sweater, use green energy and get their natural gas from Norway or possibly Kuwaiit/ Qatar- the west did save their A** not that long ago.

Anyway, it is almost April... that is VERY different and easier to bear than if it were November.

Cut ALL SWIFT access, arrest his mistress and take his kids into custody at their Villa in Swizterland and cease all natural gas and oil purchases by EU to Russia NOW

All of it except the bolded. Do not use loved ones as leverage, PP. It's morally wrong. Also, and more to the point, you could kill them and Putin wouldn't care one little bit!

And it sets a dangerous precedent that makes it open season on families of officials everywhere.