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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I really am wondering if even a third of their nukes actually would launch.  They are using vehicles and tanks literally from the 1980s.  
What a third rate military power.  [/quote]

Russians military power has always been over rated and built up by the defense industry. I know military experts who did war games after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They went to each country inspected the military and were just shocked. The common theme was the West wasted so much money because the Russians military was a paper tiger. [/quote]

And yet! They are currently murdering hundreds of Ukrainians!!! It doesn't matter how bad their army is, if they're willing to fight dirty, they will manage to massacre the population.
[/quote]

They are not fighting dirty they are fighting the only way they are capable of fighting. It’s a WW2. Just line troops up and have them attack. If the Ukraine can hold the cities and can get resupplied the the casualties could be in the 100k. Russia will most likely over run the country and at that point it will become a pacification operation. The Russians will kill civilians and de- people towns and cities. It is going to get much much worst. This will go on for 10 years or until, Putin is removed. [/quote]

I don't think they will overrun the country. They don't have the troops, and as it is, the Ukrainians are taking back territory when the Russians advance. Ukraine will receive a steady supply of weapons and, it appears, foreign volunteers with military experience, including highly trained special ops. 15,000 Soviets were killed in Afghanistan during their ten year war there, and they may have already lost as many as 10,000 now in less than two weeks. The loss of equipment is similar, and their ability to replace it will continue to shrink. Twitter has a video of a Russian train headed toward Ukraine carrying a hodge lodge of civilian vehicles to replace their lost military trucks, many of them already sporting the Z on their sides. So destroyed Red Army trucks are being replaced with Ivan the Plumber's old work van.

The only semi-successful part of this so far is the Russian advance in the south. With the Black Fleet off the coast, they could destroy Odessa and block anything coming into or out of Ukraine through the Black Sea, from where something like 60% of their wheat harvest is exported. This would have a huge impact on both Ukraine and the world. Maybe that would change the calculation of how aggressively outside countries might get involved. (Any experts out there have an idea if/how Ukraine could use a new supply of jets to attack those ships? Would it be too risky for the jets? Even if they get a supply from Poland or wherever, it will still be a limited force.)

This is not to say that it won't get far worse and far bloodier. It's just hard to imagine, given how big the losses have been for Russia so far, that this will go on for years the way it initially seemed. I would expect some kind of catastrophic action by Putin first.[/quote]

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