Official November Shutdown Thread

[Anonymous]

After bad election results heading into 2024, shutting down the government over nothing really wouldn’t make any sense at all for the GOP. So of course they’ll do it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:After bad election results heading into 2024, shutting down the government over nothing really wouldn’t make any sense at all for the GOP. So of course they’ll do it.

MAGA will always double down on crazy.

[Anonymous]

Well. The GOP House is busy passing bills reducing cabinet members’ salaries to $1. Not focusing on funding the government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well. The GOP House is busy passing bills reducing cabinet members’ salaries to $1. Not focusing on funding the government.

even better, attaching them as amendments to agency funding bills. no way the senate is going to pass these. good times. m

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Johnson definitely wants a CR. The problem remains that there are still a number on the far right that want conditions on that CR that will not pass the Senate. Johnson is going to have to tightrope the situation in a way that McCarthy couldn't.

I can’t understand why anyone would want this job. It seems impossible.

[Anonymous]

I think there will be a CR to January to avoid the holidays (when they are likely not to be in DC). But, that may just be wishful thinking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there will be a CR to January to avoid the holidays (when they are likely not to be in DC). But, that may just be wishful thinking.

My thought as well. No way anyone is going to expect him to cram through 12 separate budget bills in like the 3 weeks since he became speaker. I get it some of these people are a-holes but they like him more than the last guy so I'm sure they'll give him a chance esp. given what a fiasco the speaker vote was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

I think this, as well. Everyone hated and mistrusted McCarthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

I think this, as well. Everyone hated and mistrusted McCarthy.

I also think this. And one a*hole can’t take him down anymore, so he’s on solider ground than McCarthy was in pushing back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

Yup!
Me too.
Also, and I realize this is totally self-centered, but I will be SO annoyed if we have a CR through the holidays, and then a shutdown in January. if I'm going to have to deal with a shutdown, I'd far prefer to have some time off over the holidays, rather than in the duldrum gray of winter.

[Anonymous]

So... anyone with gossip to share?

[Anonymous]

Our budget/ Hill people heard "rumors of a CR" and everyone seems more relaxed this time around, only one prep meeting so far. It feels like the expectation is for a last minute resolution but that's all it is, a feeling. This stuff drives me crazy, I hate that they always go right up to the deadline.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Our budget/ Hill people heard "rumors of a CR" and everyone seems more relaxed this time around, only one prep meeting so far. It feels like the expectation is for a last minute resolution but that's all it is, a feeling. This stuff drives me crazy, I hate that they always go right up to the deadline.

+1

[Anonymous]

Right on time, wapo is out with panic over the CR:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/09/shutdown-federal-government-preparations/?outputType=comment

I find this all performative at this point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Our budget/ Hill people heard "rumors of a CR" and everyone seems more relaxed this time around, only one prep meeting so far. It feels like the expectation is for a last minute resolution but that's all it is, a feeling. This stuff drives me crazy, I hate that they always go right up to the deadline.

Ours said they “don’t see a path forward” but our agency also seems pretty relaxed about the whole thing.