Official November Shutdown Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not going to happen, it was part of the deal to get the speaker votes.

It being a clean CR through January or April like Johnson has mentioned in the press?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not going to happen, it was part of the deal to get the speaker votes.

Here's hoping...!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Probably not. Johnson said he favored a clean CR before the speaker vote and he got elected, which indicates there’s not enough opposition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less. [/quote

PP doesn't know - none of us do. We just have to wait and see.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Did you switch to one of the credit unions that give feds free loans?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

[Anonymous]

My agency is pushing the bonuses from FY23 through as quickly as possible because I think they knew shutdown is likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

[Anonymous]

I think there will be a CR til January or April.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

Saaame. Getting money obligated is a big part of my job. An April CR would be a nightmare. It would basically give our contracting and grants divisions 4 months to get out probably 80% of the year's worth of work.

[Anonymous]

Johnson definitely wants a CR. The problem remains that there are still a number on the far right that want conditions on that CR that will not pass the Senate. Johnson is going to have to tightrope the situation in a way that McCarthy couldn't.