Official November Shutdown Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

Yup!
Me too.
Also, and I realize this is totally self-centered, but I will be SO annoyed if we have a CR through the holidays, and then a shutdown in January. if I'm going to have to deal with a shutdown, I'd far prefer to have some time off over the holidays, rather than in the duldrum gray of winter.

I'm with you. A shutdown over the holidays also means I wouldn't have to burn any leave and could keep the 30+ hours I'm planning to take off.

[Anonymous]

Seems like nobody wants a shutdown this time, but there’s also not a plan yet for how to avoid it. I’m not looking forward to next week.

[Anonymous]

Supposedly the latest holdup on the House GOP funding bill is a dispute over abortion. This week should be fun.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Our budget/ Hill people heard "rumors of a CR" and everyone seems more relaxed this time around, only one prep meeting so far. It feels like the expectation is for a last minute resolution but that's all it is, a feeling. This stuff drives me crazy, I hate that they always go right up to the deadline.

Ours said they “don’t see a path forward” but our agency also seems pretty relaxed about the whole thing.

Ours is relaxed because they just did all the procedures a month ago so we are prepped.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly the latest holdup on the House GOP funding bill is a dispute over abortion. This week should be fun.

Isn't that just for the one bill for defense and not all of them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

Yup!
Me too.
Also, and I realize this is totally self-centered, but I will be SO annoyed if we have a CR through the holidays, and then a shutdown in January. if I'm going to have to deal with a shutdown, I'd far prefer to have some time off over the holidays, rather than in the duldrum gray of winter.

I'm with you. A shutdown over the holidays also means I wouldn't have to burn any leave and could keep the 30+ hours I'm planning to take off.

I'd rather have a January shutdown. I have 2+ week of use or lose to use up for the holidays.

[Anonymous]

Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TLDR: Will we have a shutdown or no?

Yes, we will.

Johnson won’t work with the democrats, or he’ll get booted out like McCarthy did.

He doesn’t have the votes for another CR with just the GOP. Nothing that the GOP House passes will pass the Senate and the White House.

There will be a shutdown.

How are you so certain? DH is a Fed and with the rising costs of everything, I'm extremely worried about a shutdown. Around the holidays, no less.

Pp here. I’m sorry about the stress you are facing. It shouldn’t be that way and I don’t understand why the House GOP takes such pleasure in messing with people’s livelihoods.

Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball. But I don’t see how a shutdown can be avoided.

McCarthy got booted out of his Speakership because the GOP would not support him on a CR. The hard right insisted on cuts and refused to countenance continuing FY23 spending levels. McCarthy only passed the CR by working with the Democrats. So the GOP removed him.

Johnson faces the same forces. So far the only bills he has passed will not get passed by the Senate and White House. So Johnson would need to either work with the Democrats to pass a CR (and anger the hard right GOP) or persuade the hard right GOP to join him in a CR with promises to make further cuts later. But Johnson can’t guarantee those cuts because he won’t be able to get them past the senate and White House if they cut further than what was agreed in the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year.

It strikes me that Johnson will want to prove his strength and seriousness as a GOP leader by going through with a government shutdown.

I hope I’m wrong though.

My two cents: The hard right faction hated McCarthy but likes Johnson. They're aware they made the party look stupid, and most of their colleagues are pissed at them. Nobody wants either a shutdown or another speaker vote. The hard right will pretend to be appeased by something Johnson can do, maybe money for the border, and let the CR go.

There have been articles within the past week where FC folks said Johnson deserves time to work things out which to me indicates there will be a CR. Johnson has also publicly stated he supports a CR to Jan or April although I can't recall if that was during or after the speaker vote.

This isn't about me - but man - a long CR just screws with my job so much. UGH

Yup!
Me too.
Also, and I realize this is totally self-centered, but I will be SO annoyed if we have a CR through the holidays, and then a shutdown in January. if I'm going to have to deal with a shutdown, I'd far prefer to have some time off over the holidays, rather than in the duldrum gray of winter.

I'm with you. A shutdown over the holidays also means I wouldn't have to burn any leave and could keep the 30+ hours I'm planning to take off.

I'd rather have a January shutdown. I have 2+ week of use or lose to use up for the holidays.

I have a plane trip booked mid-January and am starting a new job, so I already have to negotiate that with new boss. Being on call to return at the end of a shutdown would be pretty crappy.

Should have spent the extra $250 for refundable tickets....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly the latest holdup on the House GOP funding bill is a dispute over abortion. This week should be fun.

Isn't that just for the one bill for defense and not all of them?

They added it to the FSGG bill which they pulled because they didn't have the votes for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

Good grief

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

Good grief

I read on Reuters that they are planning to introduce the CR tomorrow.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-republicans-aim-release-shutdown-averting-measure-saturday-2023-11-10/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

Let them eat cake.

[Anonymous]

I expect a shutdown until second week of December.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

Good grief

I read on Reuters that they are planning to introduce the CR tomorrow.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-republicans-aim-release-shutdown-averting-measure-saturday-2023-11-10/

It doesn’t seem like a good sign when the “knowledgeable source” says they still can’t agree on the form or the substance of such a measure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Johnson sent everyone home and went to Paris. Cutting it pretty fine.

Good grief

I read on Reuters that they are planning to introduce the CR tomorrow.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-republicans-aim-release-shutdown-averting-measure-saturday-2023-11-10/

It doesn’t seem like a good sign when the “knowledgeable source” says they still can’t agree on the form or the substance of such a measure.

At least they're willing to work on a Saturday? I assumed they'd be flying home per usual so that is slightly encouraging. The bar is so low!