Official November Shutdown Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, what is the story this morning?

There will be a CR. If there is a shutdown (very unlikely) it will be for a couple hours Saturday while they work through a procedural hurdle. But the votes are there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, what is the story this morning?

There will be a CR. If there is a shutdown (very unlikely) it will be for a couple hours Saturday while they work through a procedural hurdle. But the votes are there.

The fun comes when they actually have to agree on a budget. I assume they have to negotiate a budget at some point -- or can they CR a whole year??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, what is the story this morning?

There will be a CR. If there is a shutdown (very unlikely) it will be for a couple hours Saturday while they work through a procedural hurdle. But the votes are there.

The fun comes when they actually have to agree on a budget. I assume they have to negotiate a budget at some point -- or can they CR a whole year??

if they don't have a budget by april 30, a 1% automatic sequester back to jan 1 goes into effect. for many (most) agencies, that's actually better than the debt ceiling limit deal budgets, but it cuts defense spending too.

they can continue to pass CRs in January that extend funding into April, and maybe agree on a FY24 budget in April, but IMO it's more likely if they haven't passed regular appropriations by then that they'll just CR the rest of the year, allow the 1% cut to take effect everywhere except defense where they will pass a separate bill with more defense funding + aid for israel and ukraine. the 1% cut everywhere but defense is actually better than the budgets proposed in connection with the debt ceiling limit deal. gop can claim a win ("we cut spending but didn't hurt defense"), dems can claim a win ("we provided aid to ukraine and israel and got more money than we could have otherwise"), and nobody suffers the harm of a shutdown in an election year.

and then they can do it all again for FY25.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, what is the story this morning?

There will be a CR. If there is a shutdown (very unlikely) it will be for a couple hours Saturday while they work through a procedural hurdle. But the votes are there.

The fun comes when they actually have to agree on a budget. I assume they have to negotiate a budget at some point -- or can they CR a whole year??

if they don't have a budget by april 30, a 1% automatic sequester back to jan 1 goes into effect. for many (most) agencies, that's actually better than the debt ceiling limit deal budgets, but it cuts defense spending too.

they can continue to pass CRs in January that extend funding into April, and maybe agree on a FY24 budget in April, but IMO it's more likely if they haven't passed regular appropriations by then that they'll just CR the rest of the year, allow the 1% cut to take effect everywhere except defense where they will pass a separate bill with more defense funding + aid for israel and ukraine. the 1% cut everywhere but defense is actually better than the budgets proposed in connection with the debt ceiling limit deal. gop can claim a win ("we cut spending but didn't hurt defense"), dems can claim a win ("we provided aid to ukraine and israel and got more money than we could have otherwise"), and nobody suffers the harm of a shutdown in an election year.

and then they can do it all again for FY25.

Only a 1% cut across the board when a hard rightwing of the GOP controls the House?

Dems and Biden should take that as W and work to recapture the House in 2024 elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, what is the story this morning?

There will be a CR. If there is a shutdown (very unlikely) it will be for a couple hours Saturday while they work through a procedural hurdle. But the votes are there.

The fun comes when they actually have to agree on a budget. I assume they have to negotiate a budget at some point -- or can they CR a whole year??

if they don't have a budget by april 30, a 1% automatic sequester back to jan 1 goes into effect. for many (most) agencies, that's actually better than the debt ceiling limit deal budgets, but it cuts defense spending too.

they can continue to pass CRs in January that extend funding into April, and maybe agree on a FY24 budget in April, but IMO it's more likely if they haven't passed regular appropriations by then that they'll just CR the rest of the year, allow the 1% cut to take effect everywhere except defense where they will pass a separate bill with more defense funding + aid for israel and ukraine. the 1% cut everywhere but defense is actually better than the budgets proposed in connection with the debt ceiling limit deal. gop can claim a win ("we cut spending but didn't hurt defense"), dems can claim a win ("we provided aid to ukraine and israel and got more money than we could have otherwise"), and nobody suffers the harm of a shutdown in an election year.

and then they can do it all again for FY25.

I doubt it goes over that easy. I get it there's the debt ceiling deal but whatever budget, if any, the Rs coalesce around and pass puts the senate in the tough position of either funding the govt or shutting it down. Big if but if the house passes something with cuts and without crazy policy riders I think it's going to be hard for the senate to vote against it.

[Anonymous]

So does the CR delay 5.2% raise?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So does the CR delay 5.2% raise?

No, not for civilians. Somebody asked in another thread about military and I don't know the answer.