Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m dumb, can someone put this all into context for me???

A significant part of the Russian forces in ukraine which is a private army suddenly turns back into Russia and takes one of the border cities (no victims). The head demands talks with the army top officials. The talks take place. Not clear what’s next. Many cities are on high alert; roads between them blocked.
Not much change for ordinary civilians going about their day

[Anonymous]

Prigozhin negotiating with captured senior defense officials 😳

https://t.me/grey_zone/19270

[Anonymous]

Y'all I have a cold beer, it's Friday night, and I am here for this.

[Anonymous]

Now I’m starting to think that the Ukrainian invasion was started to deal with Prigozhin, who has been building his own mercenary power base for 15+ years. Putin threw Wagner into the meat grinder, thinking that this would neutralize Prigozhin as his forces suffer heavy losses and inadequate supplies.

But, instead, troops are endeared to Prigozhin as he’s the only elite actually on the front lines of the battle. He’s savvy on social media and knows he was sent on a suicide mission by Putin and the generals. Instead, he starts using social media to push forth a populist and anti-establishment message.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now I’m starting to think that the Ukrainian invasion was started to deal with Prigozhin, who has been building his own mercenary power base for 15+ years. Putin threw Wagner into the meat grinder, thinking that this would neutralize Prigozhin as his forces suffer heavy losses and inadequate supplies.

But, instead, troops are endeared to Prigozhin as he’s the only elite actually on the front lines of the battle. He’s savvy on social media and knows he was sent on a suicide mission by Putin and the generals. Instead, he starts using social media to push forth a populist and anti-establishment message.

Nope. The invasion was created to salve Putin's desire to restitch the USSR and he thought it would happen in a matter of days, and has doubled down since.

This will get a lot worse for Russia, and it has domestic implications for the GOP- they will lose their funding and IRA support, and likely internal Russian proof of the alliance between Russia and the GOP will be exposed.

If I were Tulsi Gabbard RFK Jr. and the like, I wouldn't be sitting too comfortably either.

[Anonymous]

If Putin truly wants peace, he should be willing to make territorial concessions to Wagner and end this invasion. Right?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Machiavelli said using mercenaries is bad. Too bad his book was so obscure. Maybe it’s not available in Russian.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m dumb, can someone put this all into context for me???

Here's the Reader's Digest version:
1. The Wagner Group, arguably the most successful military unit in Ukraine responsible for taking Bakhmut, pulled out his troops recently and dismissed about 30K of his troops (a mix of mercenaries, hardcore volunteers and convicts) back to Russia for fulfilling their contracts.
2. Someone in the Russian military killed about 2K of his troops that were in encampment off the front lines.
3. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the group, made an eye-for-an-eye announcement that the FSB has labeled treasonous and issued a warrant for his arrest.
4. Prigozhin has moved his troops into Rostov-on-Don, complete with tanks and appears to be solidifying positions currently. He may also be marshaling more troops there.
5. It's currently unclear if he will (a) consolidate power there and form a breakaway region from Russia (the smart move), or (b) move further in on a death march (unlikely). (a) is a good move for Prigozhin, since he basically is now an Enemy of the State and a great thing for the Ukraine offensive, since it would be difficult for Russia to send reinforcements while a major supply route runs through a 'rebel' area - Prigozhin could 'intercept' any such move.
6. No matter what happens, the RT propagandists and Kremlin won't be able to keep a lid on this or control spin with the Public. Putin's authority will diminish each and every day Prigozhin is alive with his troops. In a country whose authority with the Public rests in only one person (Putin), this is a very dangerous situation for anyone supporting Putin, since the Informant Network works both ways and a lot of enemies are made. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26549853

Does this help clarify, or are there specific points you're looking for?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Now I’m starting to think that the Ukrainian invasion was started to deal with Prigozhin, who has been building his own mercenary power base for 15+ years. Putin threw Wagner into the meat grinder, thinking that this would neutralize Prigozhin as his forces suffer heavy losses and inadequate supplies.

But, instead, troops are endeared to Prigozhin as he’s the only elite actually on the front lines of the battle. He’s savvy on social media and knows he was sent on a suicide mission by Putin and the generals. Instead, he starts using social media to push forth a populist and anti-establishment message.

Nope. The invasion was created to salve Putin's desire to restitch the USSR and he thought it would happen in a matter of days, and has doubled down since.

This will get a lot worse for Russia, and it has domestic implications for the GOP- they will lose their funding and IRA support, and likely internal Russian proof of the alliance between Russia and the GOP will be exposed.

If I were Tulsi Gabbard RFK Jr. and the like, I wouldn't be sitting too comfortably either.

That is some nutty conspiracy thinking there, Skippy.
This isn't going to end the way you seem to think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m dumb, can someone put this all into context for me???

A significant part of the Russian forces in ukraine which is a private army suddenly turns back into Russia and takes one of the border cities (no victims). The head demands talks with the army top officials. The talks take place. Not clear what’s next. Many cities are on high alert; roads between them blocked.
Not much change for ordinary civilians going about their day

This is the best pro-Russian spin you can do? lol. You need to talk to your own propagandists, since they seem to be taking it seriously?

Today, Solovev returned from visiting the Ukrainian front line troops..

"All the questions I heard today were about one thing - what's happening back home in the rear?"
"Are we really going to allow civil strife now? And lose our country?"
"We could lose our country. There's nothing more frightening than civil war."
https://twitter.com/i/status/1672364115417788418

Solovev was pretty morose even before the Wagner rebellion.

"Yesterday I was talking to very serious people who hold high government positions. They have a total understanding of these times we're in. They don't have the slightest illusions. It's very important for people to hot have illusions."
[5:32 / 8:46] [6:15 / 8:46] [7:05 / 8:46] Outtakes of his emotional state. Look closely at his eyes and facial expressions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI_bbQUvlT0

NOTE the subtle pro-Chinese support message (background artwork on the wall.

[Anonymous]

I lived/studied/worked in Russia for many years so following the news closely. My own two cents is the regular Russian army and Russian people would have to turn against Putin before a real coup could occur. I don’t believe Prigozhin has the manpower to march to Moscow and take over the Kremlin. I also don’t see Putin’s government removing him. This will definitely affect the war in Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m dumb, can someone put this all into context for me???

A significant part of the Russian forces in ukraine which is a private army suddenly turns back into Russia and takes one of the border cities (no victims). The head demands talks with the army top officials. The talks take place. Not clear what’s next. Many cities are on high alert; roads between them blocked.
Not much change for ordinary civilians going about their day

Yeah. Talks must be going well. No change for the civilians. Yup.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I lived/studied/worked in Russia for many years so following the news closely. My own two cents is the regular Russian army and Russian people would have to turn against Putin before a real coup could occur. I don’t believe Prigozhin has the manpower to march to Moscow and take over the Kremlin. I also don’t see Putin’s government removing him. This will definitely affect the war in Ukraine.

There have been signs that some of the Rosgvardia and Russian Army have joined Prigozhin, or at least aren't offering any resistance.

Others are fighting or vowing to fight. Kadyrov's "Akhmat" Tik Tok Brigade is headed toward Rostov-On-Don to fight Prigozhin... or to film tik tok videos.