Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The playbook is Grozny - pound Ukraine into submission, even if destroys all infrastructure and the populace is decimated. Elevate a ruthless strongman Ukrainian-native mobster to be the Governor that answers only to Putin.

Look at all the Chechen forces Putin has at his disposal. They are all the kids born during or after the Chechen war; they've been thoroughly placated and brainwashed to fight on behalf of the monster who murdered all their relatives.

That's the playbook for Ukraine.

This. P is a monster. He's destroying infrastructure as we speak. It's even in his interests if most of the Ukrainians flee to Europe as it will inevitably cause more instability in the region. Look at how Germany reacted to 1 million immigrants. What do they think about letting in millions more?

Yes, Europe loves Ukrainians now, but the population of Ukraine is over 40 million. Where will all those people go?

I agree that the Grozny/Aleppo playbook may come up since Russia did not have it easy as when it invaded Crimea and unless it goes for a very bloody (for Russians) block by block urban warfare its only option is bombing Ukraine down to the ground.

however, I think there is one major issue. Chechens, Syrians and so on were seen as "others", Chechen especially were likely seen by most Russians as sort of semi-barbaric tribes from far in the mountains, easier for the Russian propaganda to smear them and justify the mayhem. with the Ukrainians, this is a totally another story. they are the same as Russians, they look the same, speak the same, have the same religion mostly, Kyiv was a capital for slavish people when Moscow was a village, their towns look like Russian towns. it will be much more difficult for the Russian propaganda to have Russian accept tons of Russian deaths and gazillion civilian Ukrainian deaths and the destruction of Kyiv and other town Grozny-style

[Anonymous]

Just listened to a great Atlantic podcast on all this stuff today that some of you would find really interesting. With Russia/nuclear policy experts Tom Nichols and Anne Appelbaum. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ticket-politics-from-the-atlantic/id1258635512?i=1000552521000

[Anonymous]

Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

You care about Syria? This will go on for 10-15 years and be a blood bath.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

Optics/the human element has been a big part of why the world has mobilized so extensively and decisively. Think back a week. It took a couple of days for the world leaders to really be galvanized and it was significantly due to the images and appeals of Ukrainians.

[Anonymous]

Left-over (but air worthy) Mig 29s litter several EU / NATO nations.

Ukrainian pilots will be gifted these fighter/bombers.

The beauty of this plan is that the Migs can continually return to bases in the EU to refuel and re-arm, while keeping up sustained air attacks on the Russian invaders/aggressors, until they retreat or are completely destroyed.

Vlad- had enough yet?

[Anonymous]

Facts from fictions
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fact-check-video-shows-american-train-carrying-tanks-not-russian-military-convoy/ar-AAUx6S1?li=BBnb7Kz

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

You care about Syria? This will go on for 10-15 years and be a blood bath.

I think this looks way worse than other conflicts since WWII, because this isn’t about one group of extremists that’s stuck in an endless waltz of violence against its dance partner. Ukraine has been a little irked at Russia but, at least until 2014, were close to Russia, and seemed to really want to have a warm peace with Russia. The only people in favor of this war were Putin and simple people completely fooled by Putin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

You care about Syria? This will go on for 10-15 years and be a blood bath.

Oh this will be a blood bath indeed, but this is nothing like Syria. Europe cannot give up Ukraine, for reasons that they will soon become self-evident.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Left-over (but air worthy) Mig 29s litter several EU / NATO nations.

Ukrainian pilots will be gifted these fighter/bombers.

The beauty of this plan is that the Migs can continually return to bases in the EU to refuel and re-arm, while keeping up sustained air attacks on the Russian invaders/aggressors, until they retreat or are completely destroyed.

Vlad- had enough yet?

That’s not true. The Poles and Bulgarians have largely picked off serviceable airframes for their own air forces and cannibalized for spares what remained. The Slovaks might have less than a squadron’s worth of aircraft in various states of maintenance. These are also earlier versions which lacked the air-ground capability you are referencing. It wasn’t until the Fulcrum-C that a very limited AtG capability was introduced.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

You care about Syria? This will go on for 10-15 years and be a blood bath.

I think this looks way worse than other conflicts since WWII, because this isn’t about one group of extremists that’s stuck in an endless waltz of violence against its dance partner. Ukraine has been a little irked at Russia but, at least until 2014, were close to Russia, and seemed to really want to have a warm peace with Russia. The only people in favor of this war were Putin and simple people completely fooled by Putin.

Syria was fought by some people who’s mindset was stuck 400 to 800 years in the past.

Putin’s mindset is stuck in 1988. Europe will not go back to the status quo ante.

Vlad- you have miscalculated badly here. To save face: negotiate to keep the Crim and 2 breakaway regions, and call it a success.

Otherwise, to put it in Soviet terms:

- we will bury you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Grozny was like mid 90s - no one had camera phones. I think that is the biggest weapon against Russia in Ukrain compared to 1995.

We are past the optics phase, the czar does not care.

You care about Syria? This will go on for 10-15 years and be a blood bath.

I think this looks way worse than other conflicts since WWII, because this isn’t about one group of extremists that’s stuck in an endless waltz of violence against its dance partner. Ukraine has been a little irked at Russia but, at least until 2014, were close to Russia, and seemed to really want to have a warm peace with Russia. The only people in favor of this war were Putin and simple people completely fooled by Putin.

Syria was fought by some people who’s mindset was stuck 400 to 800 years in the past.

Putin’s mindset is stuck in 1988. Europe will not go back to the status quo ante.

Vlad- you have miscalculated badly here. To save face: negotiate to keep the Crim and 2 breakaway regions, and call it a success.

Otherwise, to put it in Soviet terms:

- we will bury you.

Will he take the Bibi Netanyahu package and go live his remaining days in his billion dollar yacht?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Left-over (but air worthy) Mig 29s litter several EU / NATO nations.

Ukrainian pilots will be gifted these fighter/bombers.

The beauty of this plan is that the Migs can continually return to bases in the EU to refuel and re-arm, while keeping up sustained air attacks on the Russian invaders/aggressors, until they retreat or are completely destroyed.

Vlad- had enough yet?

Is this true?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Left-over (but air worthy) Mig 29s litter several EU / NATO nations.

Ukrainian pilots will be gifted these fighter/bombers.

The beauty of this plan is that the Migs can continually return to bases in the EU to refuel and re-arm, while keeping up sustained air attacks on the Russian invaders/aggressors, until they retreat or are completely destroyed.

Vlad- had enough yet?

Is this true?

No.