2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This man is drinking some copium. That last poll was a bipartisan poll with a D pollster participating. Mainstream polls like New York Times have found Trump leading in these states. In fact, it’s hard to find polls with Harris leading in North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New polls show a tie in Pennsylvania. Harris is either losing or tied in the past 6 Pennsylvania polls on RCP. Trump’s rally in Butler in October is only going to exacerbate her problems. Because of the assassination attempt Republicans in PA are going to have record turnout and going back to Butler is only going to amp his supporters up more.

Harris is also down by 3% in a new NC poll, showing that this Robinson scandal isn’t doing anything for Harris.

If you look at both state’s polling on RCP you’ll see that Harris peaked in early September and has just been going down ever since. Trump would be wise to adopt Biden’s 2020 basement strategy and just be quiet until Election Day and let Harris spin word salads in every interview.

You can fool yourself if you want to, but Pennsylvania is not falling for Trump again. I posted this in a Pennsylvania thread last week, but some people need to be reminded:

2018 Governor: Wolf 57.77%, Wagner 40.7% (Wolf won by 855K votes)
2018 Senator: Casey 55.74%, Barletta 42.62% (Casey won by 656K votes)

2020 President: Biden 50.01%, Trump 48.84% (Biden won by 81K votes)
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro 50.9%, Heidelbaugh 46.3% (Shapiro won by 307K votes)

2022 Senator: Fetterman 51.25%, Oz 46.33% (Fetterman won by 263k votes)
2022 Governor: Shapiro 56.49%, Mastriano 41.71% (Shapiro won by 792K votes)

Since Trump won in 2016, no Republican has won a state-wide race in Pennsylvania, NOT EVEN TRUMP. 2016 was the fluke (and Trump only won by 44K). And, both Oz and Mastriano were Trump backed candidates. So Trump lost in 2020 and both of his endorsed candidates lost in 2022.

Pennsylvania may elect some Congressman from the more rural areas, but statewide, Pennsylvanians are not voting for Republicans. It hasn't even been that close

Additionally, with the exception of Trump's win in 2016, A GOP candidate for POTUS has not won since Bush ran in 1988. 36 years.

Trump's win in 2016 was a fluke and it was because Clinton's campaign manager was fooled and allowed Trump to campaign in the rural and suburban areas without countering. The Clinton campaign assumed that Pennsylvania was safely blue and Trump turned it. Clinton canvas teams set up and some voters believed that they didn't have to come out and vote. The Biden campaign didn't let that happen and won by 81K votes. The Harris campaign is not letting that happen either. Harris and Walz have both been campaigning in Pennsylvania. There will not be a repeat of 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Pennsylvania

State Treasurer and Auditor General aren’t state-wide offices? You are lying that no Republican won any state-wide race. The Pennsylvania state legislature is also fairly evenly divided.

The margins in both of Trump’s elections in Pennsylvania were very small, both during his win in 2016 and loss in 2020. He has a big base of support in Pennsylvania, and I wouldn’t write him off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This man is drinking some copium. That last poll was a bipartisan poll with a D pollster participating. Mainstream polls like New York Times have found Trump leading in these states. In fact, it’s hard to find polls with Harris leading in North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona.

Took me two seconds. Not that hard

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New polls show a tie in Pennsylvania. Harris is either losing or tied in the past 6 Pennsylvania polls on RCP. Trump’s rally in Butler in October is only going to exacerbate her problems. Because of the assassination attempt Republicans in PA are going to have record turnout and going back to Butler is only going to amp his supporters up more.

Harris is also down by 3% in a new NC poll, showing that this Robinson scandal isn’t doing anything for Harris.

If you look at both state’s polling on RCP you’ll see that Harris peaked in early September and has just been going down ever since. Trump would be wise to adopt Biden’s 2020 basement strategy and just be quiet until Election Day and let Harris spin word salads in every interview.

You can fool yourself if you want to, but Pennsylvania is not falling for Trump again. I posted this in a Pennsylvania thread last week, but some people need to be reminded:

2018 Governor: Wolf 57.77%, Wagner 40.7% (Wolf won by 855K votes)
2018 Senator: Casey 55.74%, Barletta 42.62% (Casey won by 656K votes)

2020 President: Biden 50.01%, Trump 48.84% (Biden won by 81K votes)
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro 50.9%, Heidelbaugh 46.3% (Shapiro won by 307K votes)

2022 Senator: Fetterman 51.25%, Oz 46.33% (Fetterman won by 263k votes)
2022 Governor: Shapiro 56.49%, Mastriano 41.71% (Shapiro won by 792K votes)

Since Trump won in 2016, no Republican has won a state-wide race in Pennsylvania, NOT EVEN TRUMP. 2016 was the fluke (and Trump only won by 44K). And, both Oz and Mastriano were Trump backed candidates. So Trump lost in 2020 and both of his endorsed candidates lost in 2022.

Pennsylvania may elect some Congressman from the more rural areas, but statewide, Pennsylvanians are not voting for Republicans. It hasn't even been that close

Additionally, with the exception of Trump's win in 2016, A GOP candidate for POTUS has not won since Bush ran in 1988. 36 years.

Trump's win in 2016 was a fluke and it was because Clinton's campaign manager was fooled and allowed Trump to campaign in the rural and suburban areas without countering. The Clinton campaign assumed that Pennsylvania was safely blue and Trump turned it. Clinton canvas teams set up and some voters believed that they didn't have to come out and vote. The Biden campaign didn't let that happen and won by 81K votes. The Harris campaign is not letting that happen either. Harris and Walz have both been campaigning in Pennsylvania. There will not be a repeat of 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Pennsylvania

State Treasurer and Auditor General aren’t state-wide offices? You are lying that no Republican won any state-wide race. The Pennsylvania state legislature is also fairly evenly divided.

The margins in both of Trump’s elections in Pennsylvania were very small, both during his win in 2016 and loss in 2020. He has a big base of support in Pennsylvania, and I wouldn’t write him off.

Stop eating the shrooms, brah. Ask someone to help you read the posts before you reply

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New polls show a tie in Pennsylvania. Harris is either losing or tied in the past 6 Pennsylvania polls on RCP. Trump’s rally in Butler in October is only going to exacerbate her problems. Because of the assassination attempt Republicans in PA are going to have record turnout and going back to Butler is only going to amp his supporters up more.

Harris is also down by 3% in a new NC poll, showing that this Robinson scandal isn’t doing anything for Harris.

If you look at both state’s polling on RCP you’ll see that Harris peaked in early September and has just been going down ever since. Trump would be wise to adopt Biden’s 2020 basement strategy and just be quiet until Election Day and let Harris spin word salads in every interview.

You can fool yourself if you want to, but Pennsylvania is not falling for Trump again. I posted this in a Pennsylvania thread last week, but some people need to be reminded:

2018 Governor: Wolf 57.77%, Wagner 40.7% (Wolf won by 855K votes)
2018 Senator: Casey 55.74%, Barletta 42.62% (Casey won by 656K votes)

2020 President: Biden 50.01%, Trump 48.84% (Biden won by 81K votes)
2020 Attorney General: Shapiro 50.9%, Heidelbaugh 46.3% (Shapiro won by 307K votes)

2022 Senator: Fetterman 51.25%, Oz 46.33% (Fetterman won by 263k votes)
2022 Governor: Shapiro 56.49%, Mastriano 41.71% (Shapiro won by 792K votes)

Since Trump won in 2016, no Republican has won a state-wide race in Pennsylvania, NOT EVEN TRUMP. 2016 was the fluke (and Trump only won by 44K). And, both Oz and Mastriano were Trump backed candidates. So Trump lost in 2020 and both of his endorsed candidates lost in 2022.

Pennsylvania may elect some Congressman from the more rural areas, but statewide, Pennsylvanians are not voting for Republicans. It hasn't even been that close

Additionally, with the exception of Trump's win in 2016, A GOP candidate for POTUS has not won since Bush ran in 1988. 36 years.

Trump's win in 2016 was a fluke and it was because Clinton's campaign manager was fooled and allowed Trump to campaign in the rural and suburban areas without countering. The Clinton campaign assumed that Pennsylvania was safely blue and Trump turned it. Clinton canvas teams set up and some voters believed that they didn't have to come out and vote. The Biden campaign didn't let that happen and won by 81K votes. The Harris campaign is not letting that happen either. Harris and Walz have both been campaigning in Pennsylvania. There will not be a repeat of 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Pennsylvania

State Treasurer and Auditor General aren’t state-wide offices? You are lying that no Republican won any state-wide race. The Pennsylvania state legislature is also fairly evenly divided.

The margins in both of Trump’s elections in Pennsylvania were very small, both during his win in 2016 and loss in 2020. He has a big base of support in Pennsylvania, and I wouldn’t write him off.

The Pennsylvania State Legislature is MUCH more evenly divided since 2016 after which Democrats have made huge gains.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Every rando with a Twitter account is suddenly a polling expert.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908

Yeah, it's a stupid take by the X poster. The poll shows that Trump at 48 and Harris at 47 among likely voters and even in a two way race. Also, look at their breakdown of support by age:

Harris-Trump 48% to 45% among 18-34 years old? Really????????
Harris-Trump 47% to 50% among 35-50 years old? Really????????
Harris-Trump 52% to 45% among women Hmmmm....
Harris-Trump 83% to 10% among black Hmmmm....

These look pretty suspect to me.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-virginia-poll-harris-52-trump-44/

I think that previous poll is an outlier. Emerson is a good polling outfit and shows her up 52-44.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

It’ll sure be interesting to see in a few weeks here what the actual tally is.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Only +1 in AZ?

They are panicking.

[Anonymous]

How was Biden doing v Trump in polls four years ago at this point? I remember it being a lot of double digit leads, even Wisconsin +17 before Election Day. If everything is a smaller Harris lead and the polls are as wrong as before she can't win.