2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cool Political Report posted first forecast since Walz:

226 Harris
219 Trump
93 tossup

https://www.270towin.com/maps/cook-political-...oral-college-ratings

So… just about no help at all.

[Anonymous]

If Harris wins every Clinton ‘16 state + PA, MI, and WI, she wins. She can even lose NV and win those states and still win. Polling is strong for her in the Midwest states and was also strong for Biden before he dropped out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where can one see reliable swing state polls? The overall polls don’t really mean much.

270 to Win aggregator
https://www.270towin.com

Nate Silver f/k/a 538

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024...election-polls-model

[Anonymous]

I’m afraid she is losing Pennsylvania.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cool Political Report posted first forecast since Walz:

226 Harris
219 Trump
93 tossup

https://www.270towin.com/maps/cook-political-...oral-college-ratings

So… just about no help at all.

Not much better than Biden 2020.

Much, much better than Biden July 2024

[Anonymous]

Harris is at her high watermark right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m afraid she is losing Pennsylvania.

If she does, I ***think*** she's still good with any 2 of these:

NC
GA
NV
AZ

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where can one see reliable swing state polls? The overall polls don’t really mean much.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

Average of the last 5 polls by state, post DNC. You will see all the polls for each state if you click the state. It is really close!!!

Harris-Trimp

Arizona: 46-46
Michigan: 47-46
North Carolina: 46-47
Georgia: 47-48
Pennsylvania: 48-47
Wisconsin: 49-45
Virginia: 46-43

So Virginia is back to being a swing state?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where can one see reliable swing state polls? The overall polls don’t really mean much.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

Average of the last 5 polls by state, post DNC. You will see all the polls for each state if you click the state. It is really close!!!

Harris-Trimp

Arizona: 46-46
Michigan: 47-46
North Carolina: 46-47
Georgia: 47-48
Pennsylvania: 48-47
Wisconsin: 49-45
Virginia: 46-43

So Virginia is back to being a swing state?

Yes.

[Anonymous]

Harris winning by 32 points in Maryland, in case anyone was wondering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m afraid she is losing Pennsylvania.

Do know anything about every election that has occurred in Pennsylvania since 2016?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Voter registration comparison between these past few weeks of 2024 vs. the same weeks in 2020.

Deeper dive into this:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Voter registration comparison between these past few weeks of 2024 vs. the same weeks in 2020.

Deeper dive into this:

This should be overlaid with where the registrations are happening. It's all well and good to have higher registration in New York, but it won't move the needle one bit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m afraid she is losing Pennsylvania.

If she does, I ***think*** she's still good with any 2 of these:

NC
GA
NV
AZ

Getting to two of those will be a stretch but not impossible.

[Anonymous]

Watch that clip with the pollster until the end. The comparison to 2023 OH prior to abortion ballot. In Ohio, there was a 70% increase in women voter registration and the pro-choice side won in OH by 7-8pts. Very Interesting.

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1828...YCPcSWI-u_z1N-CM.jpg