2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I say a little prayer!

I’m an atheist but I have been praying (don’t know to what or who) for the past two weeks that Harris wins. I’ve also been praying that I’m able to graciously accept the results if she loses as difficult as that will be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

the way I read it, it's still a toss-up and they also say "it's a toss-up"

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

He was? There was a presidential election in 2022?

These people flying Trump flags were not showing up in 2022. They don’t care about politics, they care about Trump. You are going to be very, very sad when Virginia is only at +5 or +6 for Harris tonight.

He has a very loyal base but it's just not enough. I don't see that he's put in the work to get the voters outside of his base that he needs.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

He was? There was a presidential election in 2022?

These people flying Trump flags were not showing up in 2022. They don’t care about politics, they care about Trump. You are going to be very, very sad when Virginia is only at +5 or +6 for Harris tonight.

He has a very loyal base but it's just not enough. I don't see that he's put in the work to get the voters outside of his base that he needs.

When turning up the base of about 30% means turning off the rest of the 70% of the country, that becomes a mathematics problem. Over the last week or so, Trump has really amped up the racism and xenophobia. I think it's negatively impacting the "undecided" crowd who seem to be breaking for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

the way I read it, it's still a toss-up and they also say "it's a toss-up"

It is indeed a toss up, but the measuring of "enthusiasm" which is at Obama levels, and the late break of Puerto Ricans/Latinos and women over the last week has been off the charts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

He was? There was a presidential election in 2022?

These people flying Trump flags were not showing up in 2022. They don’t care about politics, they care about Trump. You are going to be very, very sad when Virginia is only at +5 or +6 for Harris tonight.

Nonsense. The MAGA agenda was very much on the ballot in 2022, which is why Republicans didn't get their touted "red wave."

[Anonymous]

When turning up the base of about 30% means turning off the rest of the 70% of the country, that becomes a mathematics problem. Over the last week or so, Trump has really amped up the racism and xenophobia. I think it's negatively impacting the "undecided" crowd who seem to be breaking for Harris.[youtube]

This- but wonder how many with vote 3rd party instead of Harris?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

the way I read it, it's still a toss-up and they also say "it's a toss-up"

It is indeed a toss up, but the measuring of "enthusiasm" which is at Obama levels, and the late break of Puerto Ricans/Latinos and women over the last week has been off the charts.

+1

I've been saying for a month or so that this felt like 2012 to me. In the last few days, it's started to feel like 2008. She's going to win, and I don't think it will be close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

the way I read it, it's still a toss-up and they also say "it's a toss-up"

It is indeed a toss up, but the measuring of "enthusiasm" which is at Obama levels, and the late break of Puerto Ricans/Latinos and women over the last week has been off the charts.

+1

I've been saying for a month or so that this felt like 2012 to me. In the last few days, it's started to feel like 2008. She's going to win, and I don't think it will be close.

I certainly hope so! One of the news networks played a short clip of Obama 2008 final rally in Manassas(!) and then shortly after showed part of Harris’s rally last night in Pittsburgh and there were similarities! And it got me hopeful!

[jsteele]

Polls are no longer relevant and this thread has gone off topic so I believe that it is time to retire it.