2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

But 538 is a right wing pollster so we don’t believe them.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Ralston calls it for Harris. I will trust him on it.

He’s a Democrat partisan and Trump hater. Last election, he said Biden would win by 4%. Biden won by 2.4%. No way he has the ability to call the race down to a 0.3% margin. He is assuming a massive independent vote in favor of Harris, but last election, Biden won independents by 6%.

LOL, he's an expert in Nevadan politics. He correctly called Nevada for Biden when your type was still bleating 'stop the count!' I guess when you are so detached from reality, anybody who says anything remotely unflattering about your god is a partisan and hater. How pathetic.

It’s hilarious that Ralston is good now for making his opinion known that he thinks Harris will win when he’s been abused for weeks for just reporting basic facts about early voting because it was favorable to Republicans.

He has ALWAYS been an expert in NV politics! What he hasn't talked about much, and what he probably can't really predict because there is so little information about it, is that about 1/3 of the voters are Independents. Nevada has always had a high number of Independents, but those numbers have sort of accelerated recently, because of automatic registration in place since 2020. Because of that, I felt that his early analysis was flawed. He should have at least caveated his analysis.

I still feel that way, BTW. I'm glad he feels that Harris will squeak this one out because that's the outcome I want, but I don't feel there is any actual basis for it. He's essentially going with his gut, based on what he knows about Nevada and its electorate, and that's basically all in the feels.

He is predicting Independents will vote more for Harris than they did for Obama, and that 20% of Republicans will vote for Harris.

Could you point to where he said that? On his blog, he assumes a 5 point split.

This Indy will vote red for the first time. The way she was swept in…. No.

That just means you are not grossly offended by Trump and don't realize how unfit for office he is both morally and mentally, and so you would have voted for him anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

But 538 is a right wing pollster so we don’t believe them.

What's to believe? Saying it's a 50% chance of victory is as brave as calling a coin toss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

But 538 is a right wing pollster so we don’t believe them.

What's to believe? Saying it's a 50% chance of victory is as brave as calling a coin toss.

He wants to call it correctly and has switched to favoring Harris. Seems relevant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So 538 with a last-minute swerve to Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

But 538 is a right wing pollster so we don’t believe them.

What's to believe? Saying it's a 50% chance of victory is as brave as calling a coin toss.

He wants to call it correctly and has switched to favoring Harris. Seems relevant.

This also scary.

[Anonymous]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20241104_NH_Dartmouth.pdf

Presidential election poll from Dartmouth shows Harris winning 61.9% to 33.5%. I was unable to find their results for 2020 and whether they've been credible in the past. Still, that's another shock poll in a very white state.

[Anonymous]

I say a little prayer!

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

It’s concerning for the people on this board, many of whom honestly thought that Harris would get 175 million votes and trump would get 0 votes.

We can now confirm that trump will get at least 3 votes, which is infinitely more than people on this board thought he would get.

Haha. My favorite comment of this thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh. SO you don't know how all this works? Okay.

This is going to be a rough day ahead for you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dixville Notch results. Split - 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump

It's a cute tradition. The voters are 4R-2I, and all 6 voted for Haley in the primaries.

How concerning is this for Harris? In 2020, it was 5-0 Biden. Are those five Biden voters part of the six who voted tonight?

No idea. All 6 voted in the Republican primary this year (for Haley). In 2020, 4 voted in the Democratic primary (Bloomberg got 2, Pete got 1, Bernie got 1) and 1 in the Republican primary (wrote in Bloomberg). The last time they tied was Obama-Romney.

It means they’re extremely moderate, presumably white and older voters, and if Trump is doing this well with people like this the Blue Wall is toast because he is going to be running up the numbers with the kind of people who fly Let’s Go Brandon flags on their lifted F 150s.

I’d be very, very concerned if I was Harris right now and Trump was doing this well with a 5-0 Haley crowd after all that happened on J6. The moderates are not holding at all.

This feels like Guam and the red wave of 2022 all over again!

I, for one, was absolutely overwhelmed by the searing success of the GOP in 2022, just as predicted. Crashing red wave, brother. Grown men cried.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022 though. Try again.

Oh he was.

He was? There was a presidential election in 2022?

These people flying Trump flags were not showing up in 2022. They don’t care about politics, they care about Trump. You are going to be very, very sad when Virginia is only at +5 or +6 for Harris tonight.

[Anonymous]

This is getting really sad and more than a little embarrassing.