2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[246] Tossup October 4, 2022
Inside Elections[247] Tossup August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[248] Lean R November 7, 2022
Politico[249] Tossup June 8, 2022
RCP[250] Tossup August 14, 2022
Fox News[251] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[252] Tossup October 15, 2022
538[253] Tossup November 7, 2022
The Economist[254] Tossup November 1, 2022
Debates

What does 2022 have to do with anything??

PP is pointing out that all of the poll aggregators and forecasts showed the 2022 Senate race between Fetterman and Oz as a tossup when Fetterman then won by five points which is a landslide in a 50-50 state.

[Anonymous]

Harris’s margin in Nebraska’s 2nd is DOUBLE what Biden’s was.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Harris’s margin in Nebraska’s 2nd is DOUBLE what Biden’s was.

Where are the numbers coming from? You are quoting a betting site FFS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[246] Tossup October 4, 2022
Inside Elections[247] Tossup August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[248] Lean R November 7, 2022
Politico[249] Tossup June 8, 2022
RCP[250] Tossup August 14, 2022
Fox News[251] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[252] Tossup October 15, 2022
538[253] Tossup November 7, 2022
The Economist[254] Tossup November 1, 2022
Debates

What does 2022 have to do with anything??

PP is pointing out that all of the poll aggregators and forecasts showed the 2022 Senate race between Fetterman and Oz as a tossup when Fetterman then won by five points which is a landslide in a 50-50 state.

Oh yeah all the polls far OVER estimated R candidates in the 2022 midterms. That was the red wave that never materialized. I’m wondering why that was. Trump himself was obviously not on the ballot in 2022, so of course no one benefited from riding his coattails. Dr. Oz was also a weak candidate. And we don’t seem to be seeing Trump making a difference for Kari Lake or Mark Robinson. Are the polls over-stating Trump’s support in an effort to correct for 2016??

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Virginia’s early vote numbers are devastating for Dems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Harris’s margin in Nebraska’s 2nd is DOUBLE what Biden’s was.

Where are the numbers coming from? You are quoting a betting site FFS.

What are you taking about? The Nebraska poll was done by SurveyUSA which is A+ rated.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a2cca672-f0d1-45ca-be33-b1cdcc8324e1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I have never heard of this "Christian Crystal Ball" - is this some right wing take on the Sabato Crystal Ball?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

It's good to report outlier polls because it keeps us honest. But this seems... improbable.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Hillary says, "hello".