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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
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Muhelenberg College Pennsylvania poll
Trump 48% Harris 48% https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aboutus/polling/politicselectionssurveys/papresidentialelectionsurvey-september2024/ |
Anonymous
The cross tabs here are shocking even for me. Trump +23 with men Harris +21 with women Trump +19 all demos with no college education Harris +32 all demos with 4 year college education Economy as the biggest issue (no surprise) at 35%, but abortion is the second biggest issue at 13%— beating out immigration. Maybe we need the revelation a cabal of immigrants skinning humans in a ritual sacrifice from Trump? Generic House ballot split at 45%/45%, but Casey (Dem Senator) at +4 |
Anonymous
Q27: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST) 1. Male………………………………………………..48% 2. Female………………………………………….…..51% |
Anonymous
If you are implying they are oversampling women, they definitely are not. In fact, the number of women actually looks low.ill show my work. Women make up 51.1% of the Us population (the general population is women +2.2 points) . And the divide gets larger the older people get. And the older people get, the more likely they are to vote. Across the life cycle, more girls than boys are born, and that never corrects— up to the point when die before women/ have a lower life expectancy. https://www.statista.com/statistics/737923/us-population-by-gender/#:~:text=Gender%20ratios%20by%20U.S.%20state,of%20the%20population%20since%202013.A And the larger number of women are also more likely to vote for President than men. In 2020, 68.4% of women voted vs 65% of men (women +3.4 pts). So, unless there is something unusual in PA specifically, there are more women in the general population by 2 points, and those women are more likely in presidential elections by +3.5 points. The 3 point different in this poll is very conservative on this issue. The correct number would probably be women +4 or even women +5. https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout |
Anonymous
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1. Less than High School……………....…. 2% What.....
18-29 35%- 61% Harris basically winning 18-29 year olds by 2-1. If they all showed up to vote they will win. |
Anonymous
| in PA 2022 polling was a few points off in favor of Dr. OZ. |
Anonymous
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Predictions
Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report[246] Tossup October 4, 2022 Inside Elections[247] Tossup August 25, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball[248] Lean R November 7, 2022 Politico[249] Tossup June 8, 2022 RCP[250] Tossup August 14, 2022 Fox News[251] Tossup October 25, 2022 DDHQ[252] Tossup October 15, 2022 538[253] Tossup November 7, 2022 The Economist[254] Tossup November 1, 2022 Debates |
Anonymous
What does 2022 have to do with anything?? |
Anonymous
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Women are not monolith but polls show vast majority of pro-legal abortion. And they are voting on it too.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/645836/record-share-electorate-pro-choice-voting.aspx |
Anonymous
A record-high 32% of U.S. voters say they would only vote for a candidate for major office who shares their views on abortion. The importance of a candidate’s abortion stance to one’s vote is markedly higher among pro-choice voters than it was during the 2020 presidential election cycle, while pro-life voters’ intensity about voting on the abortion issue has waned. Also, voters’ greater intensity on the issue today compared with 2020 is explained mainly by Democrats, while Republicans and independents have shown little change. |