So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm honestly so pissed by the failure of the US government that I kind of want to go protest with the Tea Partiers in Michigan. I don't think it would be that hard to make common cause with them. They're responding to the reality that the US government does not appear to have any functioning plan other than "stay at home."

Well except for the confederate flags and MAGA hats...

Yes, they'll have to put the confederate flags away.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do a lot of lobbying work and have heard from a number of people that the region's leaders will soon agree on June 10 as target for reopening

That's interesting, thanks for sharing!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do a lot of lobbying work and have heard from a number of people that the region's leaders will soon agree on June 10 as target for reopening

You say that like it’s top secret Intel. That’s when the VA stay at home order ends, so it seems like common sense

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Might as well prepare yourselves for June 1 or later if you think you can emotionally stand it, and then be pleasantly surprised.

Also emotionally and otherwise prepare yourselves for another shutdown 2-4 weeks after things open up.

Once things open up there's no going back. I highly doubt most people will stand for another shutdown. govt. will have to make it work somehow.

Clueless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Maybe if our government taxes our salaries at 50% too, we'd be able to get a larger check.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm honestly so pissed by the failure of the US government that I kind of want to go protest with the Tea Partiers in Michigan. I don't think it would be that hard to make common cause with them. They're responding to the reality that the US government does not appear to have any functioning plan other than "stay at home."

+1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do a lot of lobbying work and have heard from a number of people that the region's leaders will soon agree on June 10 as target for reopening

Ohio already announced reopening starting on May 1st. Texas and Florida and most of the south and parts of the midwest will likely follow suit. They have low levels of cases. Michigan is the anomaly in the midwest.

If large parts of the country starts reopening it'll be hard for the mid Atlantic states to hold off reopening for another whole month past the 15th. The political and economic pressures will be too great. My money is still on the 15th as the beginning of the formal reopening. We can't let NYC dictate to Maryland or Virginia when to reopen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Exactly. And their support is being done in a much less disruptive way that allows for companies to keep employees on the payroll instead of firing them. And let's not even get started on our completely absurd small-business support loans, which were scooped up by greedy hedge funds.

You're ignoring the very generous unemployment insurance on both state and federal levels. Haven't you been paying attention to the stimulus package? When you add up all the unemployment it's very generous and for quite a few people, adds up to more than what they made.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Exactly. And their support is being done in a much less disruptive way that allows for companies to keep employees on the payroll instead of firing them. And let's not even get started on our completely absurd small-business support loans, which were scooped up by greedy hedge funds.

You're ignoring the very generous unemployment insurance on both state and federal levels. Haven't you been paying attention to the stimulus package? When you add up all the unemployment it's very generous and for quite a few people, adds up to more than what they made.

It would have been much less disruptive to just give direct payroll support to businesses, obviously. And the cluster f*ck of the small-business loans is awful. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/hedge-fund-managers-are-claiming-bailouts-as-small-businesses

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Exactly. And their support is being done in a much less disruptive way that allows for companies to keep employees on the payroll instead of firing them. And let's not even get started on our completely absurd small-business support loans, which were scooped up by greedy hedge funds.

You're ignoring the very generous unemployment insurance on both state and federal levels. Haven't you been paying attention to the stimulus package? When you add up all the unemployment it's very generous and for quite a few people, adds up to more than what they made.

It would have been much less disruptive to just give direct payroll support to businesses, obviously. And the cluster f*ck of the small-business loans is awful. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/hedge-fund-managers-are-claiming-bailouts-as-small-businesses

\

More:

"The rules for qualifying for the loans, however, were so loose that the program was opened up to many businesses and people who weren't the intended recipients, one of the reasons the program hit its ceiling so quickly. It has become a huge benefit for private clubs, law firms, investment managers and accounting firms that have the resources to complete their applications quickly. Some wealthy individuals have set up limited liability companies, or LLCs, which technically qualify for the loans, and they put their yachts and planes and personal staffs in the companies to qualify.

But it's been much more difficult for small and struggling storefront businesses to apply and get their money, and they were the ones that were supposed to get the lifeline."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-stop-business-loan-program-benefiting-rich-n1185811

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing) daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county). I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all - but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start. IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team. (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend. Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off. DC no downward trend. Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE. those are all projections anyway. The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them. i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?

Virginia is much more difficult to get testing than in DC or MD.

Is there any reason for this? Aren't we all supposed to be using CDC guidelines?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Maybe if our government taxes our salaries at 50% too, we'd be able to get a larger check.

Are Taiwan and South Korea's tax rates 50%? I don't think so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like they can open up stores, etc. while the majority of people work from home. I work for a massive company that has one (or more) offices in every state and I would wager that 90% of us can easily work from home, the other 10% can limit their time in the office or easily social distance while there due to the fact that many others can WFH.

Go ahead and open the stores and restaurants but they will still suffer. It's going to be a while before traffic is more than 25% of normal.

This may be a dumb question as I have no experience running a store or restaurant, but wouldn't bringing in some income be better than none? And even if they're not able to re-hire everyone, some people would be employed?

Potentially. But most businesses will fold with such anemic revenue.

This. It costs money to keep a store open. They are spending money to be open (utilities, salaries) when no one is shopping. So more money going out than coming in.

Restaurants are designed on an economic model of numbers of seats in the house x turnover during open hours. If you have to have fewer seats for distancing, and less turnover because people are afraid to go out, you break the model.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I do a lot of lobbying work and have heard from a number of people that the region's leaders will soon agree on June 10 as target for reopening

Ohio already announced reopening starting on May 1st. Texas and Florida and most of the south and parts of the midwest will likely follow suit. They have low levels of cases. Michigan is the anomaly in the midwest.

If large parts of the country starts reopening it'll be hard for the mid Atlantic states to hold off reopening for another whole month past the 15th. The political and economic pressures will be too great. My money is still on the 15th as the beginning of the formal reopening. We can't let NYC dictate to Maryland or Virginia when to reopen.

Your choice of words is odd. NY isn't "dictating" -- we are seeing from their situation what to avoid. Also, a very large part of "business as usual" on the East coast is travel to and from NY to all the cities up and down the coast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Americans: how come you get free masks and we don’t?
The rest of the world: I’ll trade you for that $1200 check

Have you seen what other countries are giving out to their citizens? It makes that $1200 look like pennies.

From Newsweek:

UK: 80% of workers' salaries

Denmark: 75% of workers' salaries

S Korea: 70% of workers' salaries

Netherlands: 90% of workers' salaries

Canada: $2k per month

Australia: $1k per month

US: One time $1200 check that may take months to arrive

Exactly. And their support is being done in a much less disruptive way that allows for companies to keep employees on the payroll instead of firing them. And let's not even get started on our completely absurd small-business support loans, which were scooped up by greedy hedge funds.

You're ignoring the very generous unemployment insurance on both state and federal levels. Haven't you been paying attention to the stimulus package? When you add up all the unemployment it's very generous and for quite a few people, adds up to more than what they made.

Sure as hell does! Over 43,000 US millionaires will get ‘stimulus’ averaging $1.6 million each https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/43k-us-millionaires-will-get-stimulus-averaging-1-6m-each/