Reply to So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing)  daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county).   I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all -  but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall  So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start.   IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team.  (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend.  Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off.  DC no downward trend.  Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE.  those are all projections anyway.   The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions  - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them.  i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?

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Virginia is much more difficult to get testing than in DC or MD. [/quote]

Is there any reason for this?  Aren't we all supposed to be using CDC guidelines?
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