how many overpaid jobs in DMV can be automated out to AI like ChatGPT?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a AI post for me

We can tell. Its grammar is atrocious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:AI judges would be less biased…

More likely to go the opposite way.

https://time.com/5520558/artificial-intelligence-racial-gender-bias/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/15/technology/artificial-intelligence-google-bias.html

https://nihcm.org/publications/artificial-intelligences-racial-bias-in-health-care

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We all will learn to do our own repairs etc. No need to hire plumbers and trades people. Anyways, most of us have money, 401K, pensions...so we will be ok. AI is not restricted to chatGPT. AI will produce robots that can wipe our butts when we are old and also repair our plumbing and mow our lawns. We will have self driving cars and we won't even need the uber drivers.

We will have robots hauling away our trash and cleaning our streets. Life will be lovely.

Ironically simple manual jobs are extremely hard for AI to replace. We still don't have a perfect roomba, lol And I can only dream until robotic housekeepers emerge. My dishwasher cannot even properly clean the dishes. And don't get me started on antiquated computer systems and PITA integration tech at most companies

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

Electric blackout and it's all gone

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

Electric blackout and it's all gone

Haha, totally. It's not ok to rely on something that's so easy to wipe out and is so fragile. I mean AI can be killed easily while humans can survive and have survived for millions of years without electricity.

AI is only as good as its "training set" - data provided for its learning algorithms to form and apply patterns to new inputs to generate results.
For some things this works really well, like where problem space is well defined and AI can efficiently process tons of information (related info) and produce very good results sometimes surpassing slow humans. AI had become more sophisticated because speed of processing increased exponentially and huge volumes of input data can be processed like never before. But I don't see that the fundamentals how AI learns about the world have changed. In a vast problem space that's poorly defined AI struggles and stumbles. It's why it's so hard to replace functions of a human housecleaner, for example. Even though it's a low skill job for a human, it requires AI to learn exponentially more things about space and objects in it and their properties and purpose, and maneuvering, and interacting and dealing with pets, etc that AI has to practically become "human" (in its understanding of the universe and objects) and also get very sophisticated sensors to do this simple job.

Natural language processing where AI made leaps and bounds is "patternable" and the receiver of information is also the "interpreter". When AI "talks" to us we tend to "fill in the blanks" and assign meaning - "humanize" the entity on the other end. It's how communication works and why it's easier for AI to pretend to be human and get away with it when it's about language.

In everything AI related Quality of training data determines how well AI "learns". And universe of data AI gets is limited to what humans allow it to access. Emergent conscious AI (arising from the network of interconnected objects and their unrelated information) for now is domain of science fiction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

Electric blackout and it's all gone

Haha, totally. It's not ok to rely on something that's so easy to wipe out and is so fragile. I mean AI can be killed easily while humans can survive and have survived for millions of years without electricity.

AI is only as good as its "training set" - data provided for its learning algorithms to form and apply patterns to new inputs to generate results.
For some things this works really well, like where problem space is well defined and AI can efficiently process tons of information (related info) and produce very good results sometimes surpassing slow humans. AI had become more sophisticated because speed of processing increased exponentially and huge volumes of input data can be processed like never before. But I don't see that the fundamentals how AI learns about the world have changed. In a vast problem space that's poorly defined AI struggles and stumbles. It's why it's so hard to replace functions of a human housecleaner, for example. Even though it's a low skill job for a human, it requires AI to learn exponentially more things about space and objects in it and their properties and purpose, and maneuvering, and interacting and dealing with pets, etc that AI has to practically become "human" (in its understanding of the universe and objects) and also get very sophisticated sensors to do this simple job.

Natural language processing where AI made leaps and bounds is "patternable" and the receiver of information is also the "interpreter". When AI "talks" to us we tend to "fill in the blanks" and assign meaning - "humanize" the entity on the other end. It's how communication works and why it's easier for AI to pretend to be human and get away with it when it's about language.

In everything AI related Quality of training data determines how well AI "learns". And universe of data AI gets is limited to what humans allow it to access. Emergent conscious AI (arising from the network of interconnected objects and their unrelated information) for now is domain of science fiction.

Absolutely SciFi, but I don’t mean androids that appear to be human. More in the sense that they could learn how to learn, and then behave in manners we can’t predict. Or be used in manners we can’t control. All of this stated….that’s not what ChatGPT is doing. As absolutely impressive as it is…..it’s not doing what people seem to think it’s doing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

To defend a traffic violation. Not to defend a patent infringement case for a pharma company.

Did AI go to law school with the prosecutor who will be willing to work out a deal and present it to the judge (who happened to have a cocktail with the prosecutor the night before at a bar event), who will then offer a reduced sentence to the reckless driver? Didn’t think so. Not going to be replaced with AI. The people in this thread have no idea what they’re talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

To defend a traffic violation. Not to defend a patent infringement case for a pharma company.

Did AI go to law school with the prosecutor who will be willing to work out a deal and present it to the judge (who happened to have a cocktail with the prosecutor the night before at a bar event), who will then offer a reduced sentence to the reckless driver? Didn’t think so. Not going to be replaced with AI. The people in this thread have no idea what they’re talking about.

The people on this thread are all the people you don’t want to get stuck talking to at a party.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

To defend a traffic violation. Not to defend a patent infringement case for a pharma company.

Did AI go to law school with the prosecutor who will be willing to work out a deal and present it to the judge (who happened to have a cocktail with the prosecutor the night before at a bar event), who will then offer a reduced sentence to the reckless driver? Didn’t think so. Not going to be replaced with AI. The people in this thread have no idea what they’re talking about.

So basically law is about who your lawyer knows, not about fitting the appropriate punishment to the crime?

I would love AI to replace lawyers and real estate agents. Most expensive and useless people on the planet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

To defend a traffic violation. Not to defend a patent infringement case for a pharma company.

What is it like to be so oblivious?

Did AI go to law school with the prosecutor who will be willing to work out a deal and present it to the judge (who happened to have a cocktail with the prosecutor the night before at a bar event), who will then offer a reduced sentence to the reckless driver? Didn’t think so. Not going to be replaced with AI. The people in this thread have no idea what they’re talking about.

So basically law is about who your lawyer knows, not about fitting the appropriate punishment to the crime?

I would love AI to replace lawyers and real estate agents. Most expensive and useless people on the planet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So many white collar jobs could be easily replaced by ChatGPT:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/chatgpt-ai-economy-automation-jobs/672767/

Law is a field that could be gutted easily by AI. In fact, the first AI defended case is coming soon:

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ai-powered-robot-lawyer-takes-its-first-court-case/

It's only a matter of time until tons of grossly overpaid legal work is automated out. Same for so many lobbyists, consultants, sales, heck tons and tons of programming work. Is the DMV going to survive 20 years from now? So many people in this area have zero skills in fields that are harder to automate like the trades. Tons of people get vastly overpaid for white collar work that could easily be automated out with emerging AI. It's only a matter of time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

Electric blackout and it's all gone

Haha, totally. It's not ok to rely on something that's so easy to wipe out and is so fragile. I mean AI can be killed easily while humans can survive and have survived for millions of years without electricity.

AI is only as good as its "training set" - data provided for its learning algorithms to form and apply patterns to new inputs to generate results.
For some things this works really well, like where problem space is well defined and AI can efficiently process tons of information (related info) and produce very good results sometimes surpassing slow humans. AI had become more sophisticated because speed of processing increased exponentially and huge volumes of input data can be processed like never before. But I don't see that the fundamentals how AI learns about the world have changed. In a vast problem space that's poorly defined AI struggles and stumbles. It's why it's so hard to replace functions of a human housecleaner, for example. Even though it's a low skill job for a human, it requires AI to learn exponentially more things about space and objects in it and their properties and purpose, and maneuvering, and interacting and dealing with pets, etc that AI has to practically become "human" (in its understanding of the universe and objects) and also get very sophisticated sensors to do this simple job.

Natural language processing where AI made leaps and bounds is "patternable" and the receiver of information is also the "interpreter". When AI "talks" to us we tend to "fill in the blanks" and assign meaning - "humanize" the entity on the other end. It's how communication works and why it's easier for AI to pretend to be human and get away with it when it's about language.

In everything AI related Quality of training data determines how well AI "learns". And universe of data AI gets is limited to what humans allow it to access. Emergent conscious AI (arising from the network of interconnected objects and their unrelated information) for now is domain of science fiction.

Yes to the bolded especially. My job involves research and writing about certain topics where existing information is limited, a lot of source data has not been digitized, and a lot of existing scholarly work is in either paywalled articles or recently published books that aren't free online. I.e. the training set is sufficiently limited that the "answers" AI can produce are wrong, AND reproduce the biases of easily accessible information.

That said, I have no concerns about being automated, but the pay in my field sucks and i won't encourage my kids to pursue it. My answer to worries that AI will replace white collar jobs is that my kids should either go into something where physical presence is necessary, or...learn to design and program the AIs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

Electric blackout and it's all gone

Haha, totally. It's not ok to rely on something that's so easy to wipe out and is so fragile. I mean AI can be killed easily while humans can survive and have survived for millions of years without electricity.

AI is only as good as its "training set" - data provided for its learning algorithms to form and apply patterns to new inputs to generate results.
For some things this works really well, like where problem space is well defined and AI can efficiently process tons of information (related info) and produce very good results sometimes surpassing slow humans. AI had become more sophisticated because speed of processing increased exponentially and huge volumes of input data can be processed like never before. But I don't see that the fundamentals how AI learns about the world have changed. In a vast problem space that's poorly defined AI struggles and stumbles. It's why it's so hard to replace functions of a human housecleaner, for example. Even though it's a low skill job for a human, it requires AI to learn exponentially more things about space and objects in it and their properties and purpose, and maneuvering, and interacting and dealing with pets, etc that AI has to practically become "human" (in its understanding of the universe and objects) and also get very sophisticated sensors to do this simple job.

Natural language processing where AI made leaps and bounds is "patternable" and the receiver of information is also the "interpreter". When AI "talks" to us we tend to "fill in the blanks" and assign meaning - "humanize" the entity on the other end. It's how communication works and why it's easier for AI to pretend to be human and get away with it when it's about language.

In everything AI related Quality of training data determines how well AI "learns". And universe of data AI gets is limited to what humans allow it to access. Emergent conscious AI (arising from the network of interconnected objects and their unrelated information) for now is domain of science fiction.

So a couple of things:

- AI instances are geo-redundant cloud resources in data centers with long term backup power. Yes, a blackout can make your Roomba not work at your house, but it doesn’t bring down Alexa. And I promise you that the current intensive DOD research in AI, which is moving forward with alarming speed, takes the need for electricity into account.

- The concern about AI taking over the world — at least as I understand the CS leaders who are most concerned about this — is not SkyNet so much as it it concern about emergent, algorithm-driven, large-scale systems that interact with each other and have very negative impacts. That’s already been going on for a while. Think automated wire service news, automated stock trading, and social media algorithms that amplify bot-generated misinformation. There’s been research suggesting that a large percentage of twitter and forum arguments are AI arguing with AI, and when algorithms amplify this, suddenly online spaces are dominated with whatever generates the most engagement, which is usually hate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So many white collar jobs could be easily replaced by ChatGPT:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/chatgpt-ai-economy-automation-jobs/672767/

Law is a field that could be gutted easily by AI. In fact, the first AI defended case is coming soon:

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ai-powered-robot-lawyer-takes-its-first-court-case/

It's only a matter of time until tons of grossly overpaid legal work is automated out. Same for so many lobbyists, consultants, sales, heck tons and tons of programming work. Is the DMV going to survive 20 years from now? So many people in this area have zero skills in fields that are harder to automate like the trades. Tons of people get vastly overpaid for white collar work that could easily be automated out with emerging AI. It's only a matter of time.

Yes and no. Relationship-based businesses (i.e. lobbying) aren't. Anything dealing with creativity (i.e. writing) really isn't.

But all these people whose kids clamor to go to university for computer science are kind of screwed. Except the ones studying how to program AI, of course. But the rest of them -- run-of-the-mill coding? Won't be as much need for coders in 6 months to a year. Computer Science majors are already obsolete.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dunno, but I’m a lawyer and 100% use it to get bits of my work done faster. I’ve been checking the answers carefully so far for accuracy. It’s pretty amazing. What I really want is a bot to generate the headers and format of different litigation papers, insert the parties’ names, the signature block, etc.

+1

This. Computer work and lawyering will be the first to go.

Deservedly so, 80% of lawyers aren’t that smart anyway and are just doing tedious work.