how many overpaid jobs in DMV can be automated out to AI like ChatGPT?

[Anonymous]

I do technical content writing for a living and Google is already trying to kill AI writing. Good for them. It's not particularly useful for technical fields. There is a good way to use this, but it's not to replace a brain.

[Anonymous]

Have you guys actually used it?

My son put in prompts for potential essay questions he had for a mid term exam. He was given 8 prompts to study and would have to write live in-class on one of them.

The ChatGPT answers were REALLY crappy. He had the system re-write the the answer several times (you can click "re-write") and it just kept spitting out the same surface-level crap.
IF he had turned in any of this verbatim or an at-home essay he would have received about a D-. It very surface level stuff and it was also about 200 words total.

I get that it will improve but not until someone writes current stuff on all of those questions and uploads it to some corner of the internet. Not likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So an AI will write the briefs. Will we have an AI judge review them too?

Well, with DC requiring trials for basically every crime now, I wouldn't doubt at all tons of court cases will be completely automated to reduce giant backlogs at some point, because they can't hire enough human judges.

Exactly where we are headed:

Smells unconstitutional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Have you guys actually used it?

My son put in prompts for potential essay questions he had for a mid term exam. He was given 8 prompts to study and would have to write live in-class on one of them.

The ChatGPT answers were REALLY crappy. He had the system re-write the the answer several times (you can click "re-write") and it just kept spitting out the same surface-level crap.
IF he had turned in any of this verbatim or an at-home essay he would have received about a D-. It very surface level stuff and it was also about 200 words total.

I get that it will improve but not until someone writes current stuff on all of those questions and uploads it to some corner of the internet. Not likely.

Once again, it is basically the first iteration. Wait until 10 years from now when it is much better. Kids in high school now are screwed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have you guys actually used it?

My son put in prompts for potential essay questions he had for a mid term exam. He was given 8 prompts to study and would have to write live in-class on one of them.

The ChatGPT answers were REALLY crappy. He had the system re-write the the answer several times (you can click "re-write") and it just kept spitting out the same surface-level crap.
IF he had turned in any of this verbatim or an at-home essay he would have received about a D-. It very surface level stuff and it was also about 200 words total.

I get that it will improve but not until someone writes current stuff on all of those questions and uploads it to some corner of the internet. Not likely.

Once again, it is basically the first iteration. Wait until 10 years from now when it is much better. Kids in high school now are screwed.

No guarantee this will happen. Again, look at self-driving tech. Ten years ago, we were promised fleets of self-driving cars by 2018. Instead, the tech plateaued early and remains impractical. As with self-driving, society is also deeply wary of AI. It’s far more likely we’ll see regulation. It may not come from congress, but expect it from licensing boards, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Technologies like the Internet don’t compare to AI. No one can predict when it will be capable of displacing sophisticated white collar work. And it’s way to premature to say it will happen in just a few years.

I am a STEM person (Computer Science) and, while I agree it’s inevitable, I also agree it’s not a few years away. That said, I firmly believe we need to ensure worldwide understanding of the ground rules for building AI now, which is unlikely to happen. The robots can absolutely take over. Anyone with any background in programming should understand that as fact.

[Anonymous]

The AI I’ve used so far is pretty bad. It can only supply canned answers. Anything with a twist trips it up very quickly. Maybe someday, but not today or tomorrow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We all will learn to do our own repairs etc. No need to hire plumbers and trades people. Anyways, most of us have money, 401K, pensions...so we will be ok. AI is not restricted to chatGPT. AI will produce robots that can wipe our butts when we are old and also repair our plumbing and mow our lawns. We will have self driving cars and we won't even need the uber drivers.

We will have robots hauling away our trash and cleaning our streets. Life will be lovely.

Except for all of the kids in college, high school, or grade school now. Who needs to pay them anything when you can type what you want into a prompt and the AI will spit out a McKinsey quality consulting report for you for free?

You don't understand why the companies are hiring McKinsey - it's not for the quality of the report (with majority of work often done by people just a few years out if college). They hire management consultants so they could point to someone making a decision for them. They would never use AI even if the quality were the same because they can't say to the Board "AI made us do it".

[Anonymous]

We will have a lot of lawsuit filed against AI companies, like self driving car accident by computer hackers.
This will keep lawyers busy.

[Anonymous]

Accounting too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have you guys actually used it?

My son put in prompts for potential essay questions he had for a mid term exam. He was given 8 prompts to study and would have to write live in-class on one of them.

The ChatGPT answers were REALLY crappy. He had the system re-write the the answer several times (you can click "re-write") and it just kept spitting out the same surface-level crap.
IF he had turned in any of this verbatim or an at-home essay he would have received about a D-. It very surface level stuff and it was also about 200 words total.

I get that it will improve but not until someone writes current stuff on all of those questions and uploads it to some corner of the internet. Not likely.

Once again, it is basically the first iteration. Wait until 10 years from now when it is much better. Kids in high school now are screwed.

No guarantee this will happen. Again, look at self-driving tech. Ten years ago, we were promised fleets of self-driving cars by 2018. Instead, the tech plateaued early and remains impractical. As with self-driving, society is also deeply wary of AI. It’s far more likely we’ll see regulation. It may not come from congress, but expect it from licensing boards, etc.

Can hear to say this re: self driving. There’s absolutely no logic to “well sure it sucks now but inevitably it will later blow our minds.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

I wonder if this is the same plumber I recently had by: the man could not shut up about his multiple real estate developments. It definitely made the bill sting more.

Nothing wrong with trades as a career (my dad is a repairman; I kinda wish I was an electrician) but these older people with multiple properties largely have them because of the economy and property prices at the time they were entering the property ladder. And, if they own the business, a little bit of creativity at tax time

If AI can instruct people how to be their own lawyer, it can certainly instruct people on how to run a wire or install a pipe.

To defend a traffic violation. Not to defend a patent infringement case for a pharma company.