2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is something you aren't considering in the New York Times/Siena polls.

Look at the sampling male and female. They're oversampling females and by large numbers.

They're sampling 45% male and 55% female. Why would you do that except to skew a poll?

And even with that, look at the results. It's not good for Harris. Beware guys. This isn't a good polling methodology.

Never forget. The media has one objective. Make the election a horse race so that people keep clicking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is something you aren't considering in the New York Times/Siena polls.

Look at the sampling male and female. They're oversampling females and by large numbers.

They're sampling 45% male and 55% female. Why would you do that except to skew a poll?

And even with that, look at the results. It's not good for Harris. Beware guys. This isn't a good polling methodology.

Never forget. The media has one objective. Make the election a horse race so that people keep clicking.

Yes. However, as we near election day, they will let the polls move more toward reality so they don't miss by too large a margin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is something you aren't considering in the New York Times/Siena polls.

Look at the sampling male and female. They're oversampling females and by large numbers.

They're sampling 45% male and 55% female. Why would you do that except to skew a poll?

And even with that, look at the results. It's not good for Harris. Beware guys. This isn't a good polling methodology.

Never forget. The media has one objective. Make the election a horse race so that people keep clicking.

Yes. However, as we near election day, they will let the polls move more toward reality so they don't miss by too large a margin.

Why? That infamously was not the case in 2016. They’ll just make up some excuse. It’s not like they’ll ever be held accountable.

[Anonymous]

While we argue about who’s getting polled…

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:President: general election, North Carolina, 2024.

Sept. 17-21 682 LV The New York Times/Siena College
Harris 45%
Trump 47%
Oliver 1%
Stein 0%

Is Oliver going to keep that 1% in such a close race?


Sept. 17-21 682 LV The New York Times/Siena College
Harris 47%
Trump 49%
Sept. 17-21

This is with pollster insisting 3rd party / undecided to pick Harris/Trump. Over 50% of these people refused to answer.


Sept. 16-19 868 LV Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris 47%
Trump 48%
Oliver 0%
Stein 0%

Here’s Redfield & Wilton for the swing states

[Anonymous]

North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

How is NC just about tied for Pres while Stein is polling way ahead for Gov? Same with AZ going slightly but consistently for Trump in the polls while Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake (who is a MAGA darling!) for Senate. Are there that many “Trump and Gallego” voters? Are people voting for Trump and sitting out the Senate race?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

How is NC just about tied for Pres while Stein is polling way ahead for Gov? Same with AZ going slightly but consistently for Trump in the polls while Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake (who is a MAGA darling!) for Senate. Are there that many “Trump and Gallego” voters? Are people voting for Trump and sitting out the Senate race?

Robinson and Lake are supremely bad candidates who have alienated a lot of Republicans. Like Doug Mastriano in PA two years ago who lost to Shapiro in a landslide despite the state being around 50-50.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

all gas no brakes, my friends

The governor of Wisconsin won by a little over 3% and that was considered a landslide for Wisconsin elections. Most races are decided by about 1% of the vote or less. The Wisconsin polls were laughably bad in both 2016 and 2020 and significantly underestimated Trump’s support in the state, and it looks like some polls are continuing with their failed methodology.

Pollsters significantly overestimated Trump’s support throughout the Republican primary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

How is NC just about tied for Pres while Stein is polling way ahead for Gov? Same with AZ going slightly but consistently for Trump in the polls while Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake (who is a MAGA darling!) for Senate. Are there that many “Trump and Gallego” voters? Are people voting for Trump and sitting out the Senate race?

Robinson was a mediocre candidate for Lt Governor in 2020, and not well liked. Cooper was a successful governor and Stein inherited the D shine.

NC Democrats know how to appeal to moderates.

[Anonymous]

Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

If she gets WI MI PA and the Omaha vote she doesn’t even need Nevada (although I think she wins there, it’s pro-choice AF)