2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is something you aren't considering in the New York Times/Siena polls.

Look at the sampling male and female. They're oversampling females and by large numbers.

They're sampling 45% male and 55% female. Why would you do that except to skew a poll?

And even with that, look at the results. It's not good for Harris. Beware guys. This isn't a good polling methodology.

NYT/Sienna weights by gender at the same weight as they vote in Presidential elections, as measured by self-reporting of voting behavior.

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout

[Anonymous]

Guys, your 2 second uninformed guess about how polling works isn't as good as people who actually study this professionally for years and publish their methodology.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

They were voting for Harris before the dogs and cats disgusting comments. To win Florida, you need the Cuban vote in the south to offset the Panhandle, minus Tallahassee, lower Alabama voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

Maybe so, but I'm looking for structure in thinking about chances, to get away from the crazed swinging of sentiment every time one poll comes out in one state that might not even be important.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

They were voting for Harris before the dogs and cats disgusting comments. To win Florida, you need the Cuban vote in the south to offset the Panhandle, minus Tallahassee, lower Alabama voters.

Ironically, Cubans traditionally love Republicans because of... Ronald Reagan's open-border policy that emptied Cuban prisons and insane asylums into Florida. Sound familiar?
End of 3 sentence commentary/analysis. Back to polling.

[Anonymous]

Not saying Texas is in play, but...

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Harris leads Trump by 32 points among young voters in new polling .


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHNa1zH0BsY

Only poll that Trump is winning 32-28% is who is funnier.
Just 15% of 18-29 year old see Trump Empathic. 15%
Competent 27%
Relatable 18%
Honest 18%
Strong 33%
Funny 32%
Patriotic 36%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

They were voting for Harris before the dogs and cats disgusting comments. To win Florida, you need the Cuban vote in the south to offset the Panhandle, minus Tallahassee, lower Alabama voters.

Ironically, Cubans traditionally love Republicans because of... Ronald Reagan's open-border policy that emptied Cuban prisons and insane asylums into Florida. Sound familiar?
End of 3 sentence commentary/analysis. Back to polling.

Before Ronald Reagan Cubans, won't allowed to just come in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

How is NC just about tied for Pres while Stein is polling way ahead for Gov? Same with AZ going slightly but consistently for Trump in the polls while Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake (who is a MAGA darling!) for Senate. Are there that many “Trump and Gallego” voters? Are people voting for Trump and sitting out the Senate race?

Robinson and Lake are supremely bad candidates who have alienated a lot of Republicans. Like Doug Mastriano in PA two years ago who lost to Shapiro in a landslide despite the state being around 50-50.

Robinson is uniquely bad. But are there really people who are a-ok with Trump but Kari Lake is a bridge too far???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

They were voting for Harris before the dogs and cats disgusting comments. To win Florida, you need the Cuban vote in the south to offset the Panhandle, minus Tallahassee, lower Alabama voters.

Ironically, Cubans traditionally love Republicans because of... Ronald Reagan's open-border policy that emptied Cuban prisons and insane asylums into Florida. Sound familiar?
End of 3 sentence commentary/analysis. Back to polling.

Before Ronald Reagan Cubans, won't allowed to just come in?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariel_boatlift

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thesis: Harris wins exactly if she wins all of WI, MI, PA, NV

I think she will also win NC and there is a decent chance she takes FL as well. There are tens of thousands of Haitian voters in Florida who are PISSED and motivated.

They were voting for Harris before the dogs and cats disgusting comments. To win Florida, you need the Cuban vote in the south to offset the Panhandle, minus Tallahassee, lower Alabama voters.

Ironically, Cubans traditionally love Republicans because of... Ronald Reagan's open-border policy that emptied Cuban prisons and insane asylums into Florida. Sound familiar?
End of 3 sentence commentary/analysis. Back to polling.

I think the younger generation of Cubans is not as reliable to the GOP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Carolina before the latest Mark Robinson yuck

How is NC just about tied for Pres while Stein is polling way ahead for Gov? Same with AZ going slightly but consistently for Trump in the polls while Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake (who is a MAGA darling!) for Senate. Are there that many “Trump and Gallego” voters? Are people voting for Trump and sitting out the Senate race?

Robinson and Lake are supremely bad candidates who have alienated a lot of Republicans. Like Doug Mastriano in PA two years ago who lost to Shapiro in a landslide despite the state being around 50-50.

Robinson is uniquely bad. But are there really people who are a-ok with Trump but Kari Lake is a bridge too far???

I think one of the many things we learned in 2022 was that Trump is allowed to be Trump but the weird candidates he endorses aren’t allowed that same latitude (except in Ohio but even there they win by much less than every other statewide Republican.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: Harris leads Trump by 32 points among young voters in new polling .


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHNa1zH0BsY

Only poll that Trump is winning 32-28% is who is funnier.
Just 15% of 18-29 year old see Trump Empathic. 15%
Competent 27%
Relatable 18%
Honest 18%
Strong 33%
Funny 32%
Patriotic 36%.

More on this

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Guys, your 2 second uninformed guess about how polling works isn't as good as people who actually study this professionally for years and publish their methodology.

+1 this