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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
The NYT polls is one of the most respected polls out there. If Trump is up by this much in these states watch out Michigan and PA. |
Anonymous
Yep. Trump was down by 10+ points in a lot of Wisconsin polls right before the 2016 and 2020 elections. I wouldn’t be happy if I was a Dem unless Harris was up by 15+ in most Wisconsin polls. The Teamsters not endorsing Harris is going to be a much bigger deal than people realize in PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Sean O’Brien basically said that Trump was clobbering Harris in NY among rank and file union voters so imagine how well he’s doing in more conservative rust belt states. |
Anonymous
Respected doesn't mean zero error. |
Anonymous
Even within the margin of error Trump is winning AZ and Georgia. |
Anonymous
How is North Carolina closer than Arizona? |
Anonymous
In this poll. I agree, Trump has the edge in these states and other polls show this as well. But a 10 point swing is unlikely. More likely is a smaller swing and the margin in AZ will be closer to the polling average (Trump up by 1-2 percentage points). |
Anonymous
Arizona has two dem senators and a dem governor. Polling is saying its a close game and I agree. I imagine in Arizona it will be very slim margins yet again and I wouldn't be shocked either way but if I was betting I would say D. They have simply voted D in many of these tight elections in recent years so the D turnout game is strong. |
Anonymous
The local chapters of the Teamsters in those swing states have endorsed Harris and will be providing volunteers to canvass and work the polling stations. |
Anonymous
Mark Robinson New, younger transplants Killer ground game by NC Dems. |
Anonymous
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President: general election, North Carolina, 2024.
Sept. 17-21 682 LV The New York Times/Siena College Harris 45% Trump 47% Oliver 1% Stein 0% Is Oliver going to keep that 1% in such a close race? Sept. 17-21 682 LV The New York Times/Siena College Harris 47% Trump 49% Sept. 17-21 This is with pollster insisting 3rd party / undecided to pick Harris/Trump. Over 50% of these people refused to answer. Sept. 16-19 868 LV Redfield & Wilton Strategies Harris 47% Trump 48% Oliver 0% Stein 0% |
Anonymous
Anonymous
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Two different questions. "Death Spiral" is premature/hyperbole "Pulling away" is a state-by-state question. Harris is leading in WI, MI, PA, NV 
https://www.270towin.com/maps/polymarket-2024-presidential-election-odds |
Anonymous
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Trump may win the election. But looking at his campaign versus Harris’ objectively, only one of them looks like it’s trying to win. Ignore who you want to win if you can and just look at what they are doing. Harris is trying to get her base riled up in swing states and trying to make a dent in Trump’s numbers in rural parts of swing states. She is getting a GOTV machine into gear. Trump has a laid back schedule, no real GOTV plan, and is looking to coast. There is a difference in hustle between the campaigns. |
Anonymous
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Here is something you aren't considering in the New York Times/Siena polls.
Look at the sampling male and female. They're oversampling females and by large numbers. They're sampling 45% male and 55% female. Why would you do that except to skew a poll? And even with that, look at the results. It's not good for Harris. Beware guys. This isn't a good polling methodology. |