2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

Really? I thought she was up +6 in VA . Kamala needs to do some events there asap

That poll was pre debate. More recent polls have her up by 6.

No it wasn’t. That was a new poll that referred to being released on the start of early voting

Link please? VA is reliably blue. Youngkin was an anomaly and entirely predicable because of the closed schools mess in NOVA, and people hating McAwful, even before he dismissed the suburban mommies who wanted schools open. He got NOVA suburban women on that. Harris won’t have that issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gonna be awesome when Trump wins!

You'll be on DCUM telling us this could not have possibly happened based on polling.

Meanwhile, the admin was deleting all polling counter to the DCUM narrative (because you know, DCUM is the center of the universe).

everyone knows this is basically a 50-50 race and will be to the end. If trump wins, it won't be a surprise.

+1 Especially not with the way various Republican state houses are changing the rules now, weeks before the election and purging exclusively Democratic voters.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

The Sept 11-16 NYT/Siena poll was actually sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer. Hence, it could be focused on gathering opinions of local newspaper readers. Dems always do very well on big cities, like Philadelphia.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

That poll built 3 data sets: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, . and national. The Pennsylvania results are statewide.
(Read the methodology)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/19/us/politics/times-siena-inquirer-poll-pennsylvania-likely-electorate.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

The Sept 11-16 NYT/Siena poll was actually sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer. Hence, it could be focused on gathering opinions of local newspaper readers. Dems always do very well on big cities, like Philadelphia.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Even if it’s true that the Inquirer paid Siena to put out a poll in the New York Times, which doesn’t make sense, if the Inquirer sponsors a statewide poll they’re going to be polling the entire state, not just Philadelphia.

What do you mean "it doesn't make sense"?

Philadelphia Inquirer paid for "the Pennsylvania portion" of the poll:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/19/us/politics/times-siena-inquirer-poll-pennsylvania-likely-electorate.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This assumes that polling has made no corrections in the intervening years.

Additionally, Dobbs was not a factor in 2016.

I had to block him, Is this guy for real or he a troll?

28 years old, underemployed, never held a skilled job, and his LinkedIn profile is full of misspellings.

He's a historian of baseball, though, which is kind of cool.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-chapman-3a5789118

[Anonymous]

New York Times

Arizona - Trump 50%, Harris 45%
Georgia - Trump 49%, Harris 45%
North Carolina - Trump 49%, Harris 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New York Times

Arizona - Trump 50%, Harris 45%
Georgia - Trump 49%, Harris 45%
North Carolina - Trump 49%, Harris 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html

I don't think there was a +10 swing for Trump in AZ in the last month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New York Times

Arizona - Trump 50%, Harris 45%
Georgia - Trump 49%, Harris 45%
North Carolina - Trump 49%, Harris 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html

Depressing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New York Times

Arizona - Trump 50%, Harris 45%
Georgia - Trump 49%, Harris 45%
North Carolina - Trump 49%, Harris 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html

I don't think there was a +10 swing for Trump in AZ in the last month.

As we get closer to election day, they have to bring the poll results closer to reality.

[Anonymous]

The only polls that matter are the ones that have little booths inside of them where voters cast a ballot. See, the candidate who gets the most votes will win. If you’re concerned, get out and do something. Public polls do nothing but generate clicks.

[Anonymous]

all gas no brakes, my friends

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The only polls that matter are the ones that have little booths inside of them where voters cast a ballot. See, the candidate who gets the most votes will win. If you’re concerned, get out and do something. Public polls do nothing but generate clicks.

Sure, much better to have no idea of where public sentiment is or how it's changing over time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

all gas no brakes, my friends

The governor of Wisconsin won by a little over 3% and that was considered a landslide for Wisconsin elections. Most races are decided by about 1% of the vote or less. The Wisconsin polls were laughably bad in both 2016 and 2020 and significantly underestimated Trump’s support in the state, and it looks like some polls are continuing with their failed methodology.