2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

Really? I thought she was up +6 in VA . Kamala needs to do some events there asap

That poll was pre debate. More recent polls have her up by 6.

No it wasn’t. That was a new poll that referred to being released on the start of early voting

The post above states, "The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9" which was before September 10.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

There are three other polls for Virginia conducted since 8/30 that show Harris up 6-10 percentage points over Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

Really? I thought she was up +6 in VA . Kamala needs to do some events there asap

That poll was pre debate. More recent polls have her up by 6.

No it wasn’t. That was a new poll that referred to being released on the start of early voting

Read it again genius.

[Anonymous]

The polls,
They call it polling.
And we’re doing very well in all the top polls,
All the top polls. All of them.

We’re at like, 93 percent,
Can you believe it? 93 percent.
It’s incredible, just incredible,
Everybotty’s talking about it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

Really? I thought she was up +6 in VA . Kamala needs to do some events there asap

I think many DCUM posters are extremely naive about the tightness of this race in swing states and VA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.

A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.

Really? I thought she was up +6 in VA . Kamala needs to do some events there asap

I think many DCUM posters are extremely naive about the tightness of this race in swing states and VA.

There are three other polls for Virginia conducted since 8/30 that show Harris up 6-10 percentage points over Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

Well, if we are to believe Morning Consult numbers, it certainly looks like a waste of time and campaign donors’ funding.

Aug. 23-26. (Morning Consult) Harris +3, Harris +4, Harris +5, Harris +6
Aug. 30-Sept. 8 (Morning Consult) Harris +3
Sept. 9-18 (Morning Consult) Harris +2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

The Sept 11-16 NYT/Siena poll was actually sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer. Hence, it could be focused on gathering opinions of local newspaper readers. Dems always do very well on big cities, like Philadelphia.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Harris Has a Polling Edge in Wisconsin, but Democrats Don’t Trust It
The vice president, who is visiting the state on Friday, has led Donald Trump there more often than not. Yet nearly everyone in Wisconsin politics believes the race will be incredibly close.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/us/politics/harris-polling-wisconsin.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This assumes that polling has made no corrections in the intervening years.

Additionally, Dobbs was not a factor in 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This assumes that polling has made no corrections in the intervening years.

Additionally, Dobbs was not a factor in 2016.

I had to block him, Is this guy for real or he a troll?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

does this guy still think he won in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

The Sept 11-16 NYT/Siena poll was actually sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer. Hence, it could be focused on gathering opinions of local newspaper readers. Dems always do very well on big cities, like Philadelphia.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Even if it’s true that the Inquirer paid Siena to put out a poll in the New York Times, which doesn’t make sense, if the Inquirer sponsors a statewide poll they’re going to be polling the entire state, not just Philadelphia.

[Anonymous]