2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Tbh these types of questions are better at understanding the mood of the electorate than any national or even state poll. There's a vibe afoot that lots of people are sick and tired of Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Trump lost PA in 2020.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

Campaigning might backfire for Trump. The more people see him, the more they remember why they didn't like him last time. And he's only gotten worse since then - less coherent, angrier, tried to overthrow the government, found liable for defaming a woman he raped, picked JD Vance, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

That's your opinion, not a fact. Harris spent a full week in PA and Walz did as well in different parts of the state. That's a lot of human interaction and some of the events were tens of thousands of people. They got favorable coverage from the local press, and have a huge presence of local campaign workers and volunteers. Whereas Trump is spending all the RNC money on his defense lawyers. In the end, even in the age of Internet, all politics is still local.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

Sounds like you regard the impact of campaigning as mostly negligible?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

Sounds like you regard the impact of campaigning as mostly negligible?

No, I think it is important for the same reason the PP who responded first to this post mentioned, but most of the people attending are already committed voters, and many are volunteers, so the campaigning fires them up and as the PP noted, gets good local press. My only point is, I don't think Donald campaigning at Nassau County to a 2/3 full arena of people who are already trump supporters are turning more votes to Trump. I think it is more likely that once Labor Day passes and kids are back in school, many voters turn their sights on the election and begin to read up and that, as much as any other, is a reason the polling is turning to Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

Sounds like you regard the impact of campaigning as mostly negligible?

No, I think it is important for the same reason the PP who responded first to this post mentioned, but most of the people attending are already committed voters, and many are volunteers, so the campaigning fires them up and as the PP noted, gets good local press. My only point is, I don't think Donald campaigning at Nassau County to a 2/3 full arena of people who are already trump supporters are turning more votes to Trump. I think it is more likely that once Labor Day passes and kids are back in school, many voters turn their sights on the election and begin to read up and that, as much as any other, is a reason the polling is turning to Harris.

Counterpoint: it became received wisdom (probably among the “both sides” right winger punditry class) that Clinton lost because she didn’t campaign enough in safe blue states, thus taking those votes for granted. I realize that you are not claiming that, but both things cannot be true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

it really doesn't have much to do with campaigning. I mean, sure that might sway a handful of voters in whatever city/state a rally is held, but it is more that the electorate is beginning to understand what the GOP is campaigning on and really doesn't like it.

Sounds like you regard the impact of campaigning as mostly negligible?

No, I think it is important for the same reason the PP who responded first to this post mentioned, but most of the people attending are already committed voters, and many are volunteers, so the campaigning fires them up and as the PP noted, gets good local press. My only point is, I don't think Donald campaigning at Nassau County to a 2/3 full arena of people who are already trump supporters are turning more votes to Trump. I think it is more likely that once Labor Day passes and kids are back in school, many voters turn their sights on the election and begin to read up and that, as much as any other, is a reason the polling is turning to Harris.

Trump is campaigning in Nassau County for two reasons. One, there is a ton of money there and he is continuing to raise money for his legal defense fund (aka his reelection campaign). Second, he is helping to campaign for Representative Anthony D’Esposito who is a freshman Republican that is in danger and is one of risks for Republicans to potentially lose the House.

He knows that if he wins the election, he will need the Republican majority in the House, so he is trying to shore that up and of course pick the very deep pockets of the Long Island wealthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html

New NY Times poll. Trump and Harris tied 47% nationally. It has Harris up 50-46% in Pennsylvania.

I think that’s an odd result. He will almost certainly do better in Pennsylvania than he’ll does nationally. That’s what the previous two elections showed. The polling in the Midwest Blue Wall states has been pretty bad in both 2016 and 2020. I think they oversample white liberals.

Not odd at all. She's been campaigning heavily in PA and has not been campaigning so heavily in other parts of the country. If campaigning is worth doing at all, it would stand to reason that it would have an impact in the places where it's happening.

Campaigning might backfire for Trump. The more people see him, the more they remember why they didn't like him last time. And he's only gotten worse since then - less coherent, angrier, tried to overthrow the government, found liable for defaming a woman he raped, picked JD Vance, etc.

Oh no, please let him and his @ss-kisser, couch-humper JD keep talking. Just yesterday he announced he will add tariffs to food. While Trumpsters are happy to pay more for food for 4 more years to own the libs, maybe some Independents will see the economists in utter shock today.

[Anonymous]