2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

In the 7 post-debate polls in PA, Harris is leading in 5, tied in 1, losing in 1.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

9/12 - 9/17 Marist College 49% 49% Even 1.50
9/11 - 9/16 NYT/Siena 50% 46% D+ 4
9/12 - 9/16 ABC/WaPo 48% 48% D+ 0.5
9/15 - 9/18 Emerson Coll 50% 49% D+ 0.3
9/12 - 9/16 Quinnipiac 51% 46% D+ 5.5
9/14 - 9/15 InsiderAdvantag 48% 50% R+ 1.4
9/11 - 9/14 Suffolk University 49% 46% D+ 3

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Speaking of polling... the GOP House might be having a problem. I was on 270toWin last night, and starting with their pundit consensus map, went district by district to look at tossup districts and then checked the most recent polls for each district. For a handful of tossup districts there wasn't any polling but for a majority of them there is polling - and I found that a huge number of them have Dems in a slight lead. Granted, many of them are within the margin of error but when I finished my searches I came up with 2024 House - 220 Dem, 212 Republican and a handful that are still indeterminate. If the Dems win the White House, if they can hold on to Montana with Tester, they will have a trifecta for 2 years. I hope they are putting solid plans together if that clicks into place.

If they get all three, they must suspend the filibuster to get national abortion access protected. As a Dem voter, I expect it. I think the only reason they didn’t on 2020-2022 was that Biden was so old school and believed in the filibuster. Time to stop playing nice and get abortion access protected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

IMO, the good news here is that 14% don’t know enough about Harris vs 6% for Trump. Trump has hit his ceiling. Everyone who hasn’t been ina come for the past decade knows him and has a strong option. They will vote for him or note. Harris still has room to get her numbers up and Trump the “not Trumps” from sitting the election out to a vote for her. And she’s run an amazing campaign thus far. She can move some of the “don’t knows” into her corner in the next month. Even 2-3% learning enough this month and moving over to her would make a huge difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

IMO, the good news here is that 14% don’t know enough about Harris vs 6% for Trump. Trump has hit his ceiling. Everyone who hasn’t been ina come for the past decade knows him and has a strong option. They will vote for him or note. Harris still has room to get her numbers up and Trump the “not Trumps” from sitting the election out to a vote for her. And she’s run an amazing campaign thus far. She can move some of the “don’t knows” into her corner in the next month. Even 2-3% learning enough this month and moving over to her would make a huge difference.

Very interesting that 30% of independent voters don’t know enough about Harris vs 10% for Trump. It makes sense. Trump was POTUs and has been covered 24/7 for a decade. Harris has been a contender for a few weeks. That’s an enormous opportunity for her to get a lot of votes. And she’s running a very smart campaign. She just needs to looks marginally better than tarriffs, shut down the government, abortion bans, no IVF, get rid of pre-existing coverage protections, etc.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Why does emersoncollegepolling.com Sept 19 say Trump 48% - Harris 47%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-swing-state-polls-trump-and-harris-locked-in-tight-presidential-race/

But Nate Silver reports Emerson College as

9/15 - 9/18 50% 49% D+ 0.3

https://www.natesilver.ne...olls-model

?

Answer:

Silver rounds to nearest whole % and the provides the 01% on the margin, and also includes the 3.5% of "Undecided Lean" in the total, which substantially favors Harris, as seen in full data here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SCRlpxhcTB3YCrLcbSAG_hdj6ZwTzl85/htmlview#


Let this be a lesson about how easy it is to mislead and spin in either direction with the same data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Do you really think Trump’s favorability has bounced up five points in the last month, really? https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4885966-donald-trump-favorability-rises-gallup-survey/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Rasmussen, LOL

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

IMO, the good news here is that 14% don’t know enough about Harris vs 6% for Trump. Trump has hit his ceiling. Everyone who hasn’t been ina come for the past decade knows him and has a strong option. They will vote for him or note. Harris still has room to get her numbers up and Trump the “not Trumps” from sitting the election out to a vote for her. And she’s run an amazing campaign thus far. She can move some of the “don’t knows” into her corner in the next month. Even 2-3% learning enough this month and moving over to her would make a huge difference.

Very interesting that 30% of independent voters don’t know enough about Harris vs 10% for Trump. It makes sense. Trump was POTUs and has been covered 24/7 for a decade. Harris has been a contender for a few weeks. That’s an enormous opportunity for her to get a lot of votes. And she’s running a very smart campaign. She just needs to looks marginally better than tarriffs, shut down the government, abortion bans, no IVF, get rid of pre-existing coverage protections, etc.

The 10% who don't know enough about Trump by this point should really be declared legally dead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

IMO, the good news here is that 14% don’t know enough about Harris vs 6% for Trump. Trump has hit his ceiling. Everyone who hasn’t been ina come for the past decade knows him and has a strong option. They will vote for him or note. Harris still has room to get her numbers up and Trump the “not Trumps” from sitting the election out to a vote for her. And she’s run an amazing campaign thus far. She can move some of the “don’t knows” into her corner in the next month. Even 2-3% learning enough this month and moving over to her would make a huge difference.

Very interesting that 30% of independent voters don’t know enough about Harris vs 10% for Trump. It makes sense. Trump was POTUs and has been covered 24/7 for a decade. Harris has been a contender for a few weeks. That’s an enormous opportunity for her to get a lot of votes. And she’s running a very smart campaign. She just needs to looks marginally better than tarriffs, shut down the government, abortion bans, no IVF, get rid of pre-existing coverage protections, etc.

The 10% who don't know enough about Trump by this point should really be declared legally dead.

+1. So much this. We have had all Trump drama, all the time for 9 straight years. How can you not have enough information to make a decision. What else do you want? Photos from his colonoscopy. My guess is that a decent number of the 10% are pro-Trump but won’t admit it. That, or the 10% is so disengaged that they’ll never vote anyway.

[Anonymous]

Not polling, real data. More MAGA lies...

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Harris +8 in MI!

I want to see polls out of Nc in about a week. Can Trump win without NC? If there a realistic path that doesn’t include NC?

[Anonymous]