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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Your Mom might SAY she's voting for Trump, but really, she's voting Blue because of Roe V Wade. [/quote]

Our moms are menopausal. They don’t care.

You truly overestimate the average Americans concern for others. Most people are only voting based in self interest not the rights and health  of all women [/quote]

The moms are voting to protect the right.if their kids.  When you mess with mama bears cubs, she is going to come for you.[/quote]

Most moms think their grandchildren should be born not aborted and teach daughters misogynistic rhetoric about sex and abortion. Many Americans don’t even know married women make up half of  abortions and that   miscarriages are medically called spontaneous abortions because they  require abortion services to extract the entire fetus safely . Abortion can be medicine for women and women can die without it.  Most Americans don’t know this and think it’s always done by choice and for  unplanned/unwanted  pregnancies  only [/quote]

That is a minority understanding.   A very significant majority understands the critical importance of reproductive rights and will fight to get them returned.[/quote]

I’m from a flyover state. I am telling you  this is not common knowledge eben among those in higher tax brackets in flyover or Bible Belt states . Americans believe Republican sentiments about women.

I’ve had to repeat the previous argument about abortion many many times over the years to women  who are dumbfounded by abortion  being a natural thing that happens to fetuses by way of miscarriage. Nature is self correcting, intelligent , and risk averse   and anything that isn’t viable naturally dies off . What’s not natural is the woman dying off with  fetus as well, but that’s what is happening now in certain states .[/quote]

The red states have tuned out to vote for abortion protections when given the opportunity.  Every single time.  That is just the reality of how this is going.[/quote]

This is a thread about Biden vs Trump. Are you suggesting that every battleground state is going to have abortion initiatives on the ballot this November which will lead to the turnout you need? Because again, a lot of the blue states already resolved this at the state level. Remember, polls already account for the voters whose defining issue is abortion, they are already voting for Biden. Biden needs turnout for the undecided youth vote and independents. Those aren’t people who according to the polls have abortion as their leading concern.[/quote]
I often wonder how people like this move about the world, so certain that things are dealt with, done. That young women living in un free states will just decide that’s okay to them, it won’t matter. That abortion somehow doesn’t matter despite the GOP’s obvious plans to nationally ban abortion and birth control, to say it’s all irrelevant to the polls and the election. Baked in.

I think people like this are nuts.[/quote]

[b]It’s pretty simple. I’m looking at poll data in every state, week after week.[/b] If abortion were the hot button issue you are so passionately sure it is, it would appear in voters’ motivating issues. It’s not. The issues people are reporting as their priorities are consistently crime, the economy, healthcare and immigration.  You seem to want to wish away the poll data that is showing Trump up in every single battleground state as if these passionate abortion motivated voters are in the wings in every one, ready to transform Biden into a lead. I simply don’t buy it. The people who will vote according to abortion rights are already accounted for in the pro Biden count. Where are the voters that will push him into the lead? The youth voters are pissed about Gaza and inflation and for now holding back. And third party candidates can also derail his election.

Don’t shoot the messenger![/quote]

And therein lies your error.  It was shown in both 2022 and 2023 that the polling does NOT capture nearly enough of the young voters (18-24/25-34).  Current polls use a mixture of cell phone and landlines to generate their polls.  But very few polls use more than 50% cell phone polling.  The majority are 20-30% cell phone polling.  It's been shown that the two youngest demographics are about 85-90% cell phone users, many of whom do not even have a landline available to them.  In addition, may of the younger voters will not answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers.  So the chances of these demographics actually being included in polls is low.

In 2022 and 2023, the young voters turned out between 60-85% for the reproductive freedom  option, whether it was for a ballot initiative (Kansas and Ohio), voting for a pro-choice governor (Kentucky) or for pro-choice legislators (Virginia).  In each case, the young voters were poorly represented in the polling, and they showed up in record numbers on election day.

This is likely to happen again this year.  Until pollsters find a way to correct their polling data, the data is going to be off and have a much greater deviation than they predict.[/quote]

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