Are there neighborhoods that you believe will spiral in the next ten or twenty years?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Parts of DC that clawed their way toward gentrification but can escape the crime

Reston that feeds into South Lakes High School

Areas around Tysons Corner where Fairfax County wants to dump more affordable housing due to Silver Line extension.

This is a popular take, but crime is actually down in DC in 2022 relative to last year.

DC can be tough for families, but the region is still growing, and the fertility rate is still near all-time lows. The increase in the number of singles and DINKs alone is enough to keep DC out of any real spiral.

Crime reported to the police is down. That's more likely an indicator of police not responding or taking reports.

This. DC police refuse to take police reports. There's much more crime than is reported.

Police not taking reports is a longstanding issue though, and no one has given an explanation as to why police would be taking even fewer reports now than they were in previous years. Leadership hasn't changed, primary season ended months ago but most of the 2022 decline in reported crime is in the second half of this year. If the rate of police not taking reports is consistent, then the decline in crime must be real.

Besides which, I stand by my prior point. People without kids are by and large not concerned about this, and they're not leaving DC because of crime. They do sometimes leave for the suburbs for affordability reasons, or to be closer to family, etc., but if DC housing costs declined many of them would just stay or move back in. During the height of the pandemic, lots of young people moved out of their apartments and home with their parents to save money, which showed up in the 2021 population projections, but we already have good evidence that that trend has reversed.

There are parts of DC that are going to take awhile to adapt to new commuting patterns (like Gallery Place), and there are parts that have aged and lost favor with the young professional set as the energy and amenities of the city have moved East (like Van Ness). It's going to take many years for the building mix in parts of downtown to adapt to the reduced demand for office space. But the city as a whole is still doing fine, there's no spiral in sight.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

It's become home to the Uber Rich, mainly. The upper middle class friends I have living there all moved into their parent's houses. The other poster who talked about how car dependent it is has a good point too. It's the lack of economic diversity that seals it for me. I will also say, I don't live in North Arlington either, where I think some of the same complaints can be made. I really love and value living in a diverse place, racially and economically. On my street we have a family who all works at a fast food restaurant, several houses with teachers, some first responders, and someone high up in government who has their own security. It's an incredible mix that's hard to find elsewhere.

South Arlington isn’t that different than Annandale, Springfield, Wheaton, Woodbridge, or parts of Silver Spring and NE DC.

Just say “it’s not an enclave of white people” already.

But didn’t you know how similar Wheaton and NE DC are to…Woodbridge?!

Are you suggesting they aren't each a "diverse place, racially and economically," which PP weirdly suggested was somehow unique to South Arlington?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:In NoVa, if you look at areas that spiraled over a 10-20 year period, it's been areas like Herndon with housing that wasn't great to begin with. So I'd say the areas at most risk would be areas with a lot of multi-family housing like Centreville that could decline if the Asian population moved further west or an area like West Springfield that already has less expensive single-family homes. Or maybe the cheapest parts of Ashburn that are starting to show their age.

A bad commute is the biggest red flag. That's what killed Woodbridge. If the commute is reasonable, old housing stock is torn down

Good point. I avoid driving on I-95 south of DC at all costs. Which is why I think the inner suburbs of MoCo (SS, Takoma Park, Bethesda) will do just fine. Kensington has it's own MARC Line. The commute from eastern/southern MoCo to DC is very reasonable.

Also, I don't see Arlington declining.

[Anonymous]

Can someone tell me how the Amazon HQ2 deal is bad for Arlington?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:In NoVa, if you look at areas that spiraled over a 10-20 year period, it's been areas like Herndon with housing that wasn't great to begin with. So I'd say the areas at most risk would be areas with a lot of multi-family housing like Centreville that could decline if the Asian population moved further west or an area like West Springfield that already has less expensive single-family homes. Or maybe the cheapest parts of Ashburn that are starting to show their age.

A bad commute is the biggest red flag. That's what killed Woodbridge. If the commute is reasonable, old housing stock is torn down

Good point. I avoid driving on I-95 south of DC at all costs. Which is why I think the inner suburbs of MoCo (SS, Takoma Park, Bethesda) will do just fine. Kensington has it's own MARC Line. The commute from eastern/southern MoCo to DC is very reasonable.

Also, I don't see Arlington declining.

Not sure why I'd assume all the inner suburbs of MoCo will do just fine. Some aren't great now and it's not like all the inner suburbs of PG are doing so great, either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A friend moved from Herndon recently believing the crime and vacant businesses will skyrocket and cause the area to plummet.


Are there areas you feel will go downhill in the next decade or so?

There are many new midrise office buildings in Reston, and many jobs here. I think Herndon will be fine. Of course there is a pocket of poverty, but there are also many expensive new housing units being built.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone tell me how the Amazon HQ2 deal is bad for Arlington?

Here are two areas that stick out for me:

National Landing itself is a poor naming choice for an established community (Crystal City). We have National Harbor not far away from the marketing perspective. This causes confusion.

Amazon is in the process of major layoffs. That means those who moved to work here are now jobless. That means evictions, that means empty units, that means a downturn in multiple related areas with housing feeling a large impact in a heavily packed area (Crystal City).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Amazon is in the process of major layoffs. That means those who moved to work here are now jobless. That means evictions, that means empty units, that means a downturn in multiple related areas with housing feeling a large impact in a heavily packed area (Crystal City).

Amazon is laying of ~10,000 out of 330,000 corporate and tech employees. They're also investing billions into the Arlington campus - I'm not worried about them walking away from that investment.

[Anonymous]

AU park, esp after the weed store goes in a block down from the Target in Tenley, located just above the train.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

It's become home to the Uber Rich, mainly. The upper middle class friends I have living there all moved into their parent's houses. The other poster who talked about how car dependent it is has a good point too. It's the lack of economic diversity that seals it for me. I will also say, I don't live in North Arlington either, where I think some of the same complaints can be made. I really love and value living in a diverse place, racially and economically. On my street we have a family who all works at a fast food restaurant, several houses with teachers, some first responders, and someone high up in government who has their own security. It's an incredible mix that's hard to find elsewhere.

South Arlington isn’t that different than Annandale, Springfield, Wheaton, Woodbridge, or parts of Silver Spring and NE DC.

Just say “it’s not an enclave of white people” already.

But didn’t you know how similar Wheaton and NE DC are to…Woodbridge?!

Are you suggesting they aren't each a "diverse place, racially and economically," which PP weirdly suggested was somehow unique to South Arlington?

Wheaton has twice the number of poverty and a fraction of the diversity of Wheaton.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:How much lower can Herndon go?

People once said that about Springfield mall…

How is that area now?

Booming! Many homes still sell above asking.

[Anonymous]

New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

This isn't quite true, the constraining factor isn't neighborhoods but housing units. If we build new housing faster than the population grows, then a large number of areas could decline while a small number of densifying areas thrive.

I don't think we're at risk of building that many housing units though. Like, even with DC's frantic pace of construction over the past decade, it has only just kept pace with the metro's population growth rate. And infill development is only going to get harder as the most obvious places for it gets built out.

[Anonymous]

Virginia seems like they just want to pave all the way to the West Virginia. It seems like no thought is being put into anything. Just pave and put up strip malls and cookie cutter developments with names like Riley's Hunt and Brecker Hills. Driving 66 is gross and feels like LA but with trees.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone tell me how the Amazon HQ2 deal is bad for Arlington?

It’ll be a hellhole of transient renters. Most workers at Amazon don’t stay more than 2 years.