Reply to Are there neighborhoods that you believe will spiral in the next ten or twenty years?

Forum Index » Real Estate

Reply to "Are there neighborhoods that you believe will spiral in the next ten or twenty years? "

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][b]Parts of DC that clawed their way toward gentrification but can escape the crime
[/b]
Reston that feeds into South Lakes High School

Areas around Tysons Corner where Fairfax County wants to dump more affordable housing due to Silver Line extension.

[/quote]

This is a popular take, but crime is actually down in DC in 2022 relative to last year.

DC can be tough for families, but the region is still growing, and the fertility rate is still near all-time lows. The increase in the number of singles and DINKs alone is enough to keep DC out of any real spiral.[/quote]

Crime reported to the police is down. That's more likely an indicator of police not responding or taking reports. [/quote]

This. DC police refuse to take police reports. There's much more crime than is reported.[/quote]

Police not taking reports is a longstanding issue though, and no one has given an explanation as to why police would be taking even fewer reports now than they were in previous years. Leadership hasn't changed, primary season ended months ago but most of the 2022 decline in reported crime is in the second half of this year. If the rate of police not taking reports is consistent, then the decline in crime must be real.

Besides which, I stand by my prior point. People without kids are by and large not concerned about this, and they're not leaving DC because of crime. They do sometimes leave for the suburbs for affordability reasons, or to be closer to family, etc., but if DC housing costs declined many of them would just stay or move back in. During the height of the pandemic, lots of young people moved out of their apartments and home with their parents to save money, which showed up in the 2021 population projections, but we already have good evidence that that trend has reversed.

There are parts of DC that are going to take awhile to adapt to new commuting patterns (like Gallery Place), and there are parts that have aged and lost favor with the young professional set as the energy and amenities of the city have moved East (like Van Ness). It's going to take many years for the building mix in parts of downtown to adapt to the reduced demand for office space. But the city as a whole is still doing fine, there's no spiral in sight.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics