Are there neighborhoods that you believe will spiral in the next ten or twenty years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Virginia seems like they just want to pave all the way to the West Virginia. It seems like no thought is being put into anything. Just pave and put up strip malls and cookie cutter developments with names like Riley's Hunt and Brecker Hills. Driving 66 is gross and feels like LA but with trees.

You start to see mountains from 66 well before you get to the end of the highways out towards West Virginia.

In Maryland, you don't see many mountains, just lots of felons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

Ashburn declining (proximity to Sterling/becomes like newer version of Sterling demographically, loses population not wanting metro near) and Round Hill accelerating (new builds, DC commuters drive to metro, becomes close in commuter town)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

Honestly, City of Manassas. The old timers complain because of increasing diversity but the economic base keeps getting better, it’s small and well managed, there’s lots to do, and the VRE is a huge asset.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a lot of issues with the DC area generally, but a downward spiral? People have named just about every neighborhood and town. Yet property values and income are continually going up. I mean, if you are looking at Great Schools rating to argue that MoCo is tanking, then I don't know what to say to you. And McLean? Arlington? That's crazy.

People saying this must not have lived in any areas that have truly tanked. I think there is a far greater chance of Baltimore collapsing than anywhere in the DC area.

I think so much of the feelings here are from the constant drum beat of negative news in the press and, especially, on social media.

And probably some sour grapes from people priced out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

The areas near jobs will trend upward and the ones far from areas of economic growth will decline. I’d say Fairfax and Loudoun along 267 will continue to grow and Maryland suburbs will decline.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

The areas near jobs will trend upward and the ones far from areas of economic growth will decline. I’d say Fairfax and Loudoun along 267 will continue to grow and Maryland suburbs will decline.

Eh, maybe. The geographic difference between NoVA and MoCo isn’t going to matter as much if you only drive to that job one or two days a week. I think people will care more about the space within and the neighborhood around their homes than a half hour difference in commute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone tell me how the Amazon HQ2 deal is bad for Arlington?

It’ll be a hellhole of transient renters. Most workers at Amazon don’t stay more than 2 years.

Amazon has not hit any of its financial targets. As has been pointed out, Amazon's development of Crystal City is based on a 2019 work model rather than a 2022 work model. The difference is monumental. Amazon was supposed to renew Crystal City after BRAC left at least a 30% office vacancy rate in CC. Amazon is a very labor intensive business, and Amazon is trying to eliminate those people to reduce costs. The reality is that the Amazon people who are figuring out ways to reduce the low earning labor force will soon be put out of work by the same AI that will automate Amazon's fulfillment centers, warehouses, and similar low skill jobs.

[Anonymous]

Has anyone mentioned Columbia heights, especially in the few blocks around the metro? That has been on a downward trend for a while. So are the big apartment buildings near Dupont circle but the row houses will be strong. An Petworth.

14th st/logan circle won't spiral down, though it won't spiral up either. People who want to stay in DC but have a safer neighborhood will pick Logan Circle over H st, Hill East, and Shaw.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New spin: for every neighborhood that you believe will spiral, list a corresponding neighborhood that will boom. Unless you think the DC MSA population is going to start trending downward for some reason it's a zero-sum game or better.

The areas near jobs will trend upward and the ones far from areas of economic growth will decline. I’d say Fairfax and Loudoun along 267 will continue to grow and Maryland suburbs will decline.

The boomer generation that thought MoCo was the place to live because they felt comfortable in their own communities are slowly dying away. The really smart Americans that started NIH are being replaced by first or second generation immigrants who do not feel the need to live close to DC because they do not share the same cultural values of the boomers who now live MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see how Kensington is declining. Building tons of houses in that neighborhood off Cedar I think it is

+1 We lived in Kensington years ago before moving closer in and it’s so much better now. This is a really weird response.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parts of DC that clawed their way toward gentrification but can escape the crime

Reston that feeds into South Lakes High School

Areas around Tysons Corner where Fairfax County wants to dump more affordable housing due to Silver Line extension.

This is a popular take, but crime is actually down in DC in 2022 relative to last year.

DC can be tough for families, but the region is still growing, and the fertility rate is still near all-time lows. The increase in the number of singles and DINKs alone is enough to keep DC out of any real spiral.

Crime reported to the police is down. That's more likely an indicator of police not responding or taking reports.

Exactly. A lot of people figure, why report it? And those who own are worried about falling property values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread has mentioned every area of the DC metro. Maybe it’s really America as a whole that’s declining?

Bingo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Falls Church City will not necessarily decline, but it is changing a lot and I think the type of people who live there will change a lot in the next 20 years. It's becoming far too dense and people who moved there for the charming, little city feel, are likely to move away now that it's basically turning into Clarendon. We know a lot of empty nesters who are cashing out and moving away because they don't like the way the city is going.

So your basically saying FCC is growing and developing? The little City Feel only gets better with developments which = restaurants, small businesses, improved urban design, public spaces, local amenities, etc. Change is inevitable, and the change thats happening in FCC will definitely provide options for residents and will bring visitors from outside FCC into the little city to spend their money. The empty nesters who complain about this also complain about the high RE taxes, but they had no compaints when their kids were enrolled in FCCs top schools, and no complaints when they sell their homes for some of the highest price per sq ft in the area. But what they don't realize is development brings in more business/commercial revenue with which will help alleviate the RE tax burden on home owners. They would prefer a ghost town where everyone passes through without stopping so they can can pay less RE taxes?... doesn't make sense.

NP defensive much? We live just outside of FCC in Fairfax County and the construction and increased traffic is getting really annoying, that said I"m happy to enjoy all the benefits of your "little city" without paying the high taxes and dealing with the snooty neighbors (well except at rec sports and ballet, some of the ballet moms are out of control but I think that might be everywhere).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:II used to really like Falls Church but the overwhelming development there is going to be its demise.

2 mixed use projects and a whole foods on a two mile stretch of route 7 is overwhelming? LOL.

Two? I think you're confused. (1) Founders Row is just the start. (2) There will be something new going up where the Rite Aid/Kitchen&bath&carpet store are,(3) there's the new development near the high school, (4) there will be the new development at VA Tech near the metro, and that's just the far west end. There's also (5) the construction by Applebee's (6) What's going up where Matt's Tailor is and I just saw something on Facebook about "east end improvements". Also, there's the "Tinner Hill" stuff that went up a few years ago. That's a lot more than two projects.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone tell me how the Amazon HQ2 deal is bad for Arlington?

Here are two areas that stick out for me:

National Landing itself is a poor naming choice for an established community (Crystal City). We have National Harbor not far away from the marketing perspective. This causes confusion.

Amazon is in the process of major layoffs. That means those who moved to work here are now jobless. That means evictions, that means empty units, that means a downturn in multiple related areas with housing feeling a large impact in a heavily packed area (Crystal City).

Are any residents calling it National Landing? Businesses are trying to make it happen but doesn’t seem to be catching on. I thought most Amazon employees here already lived in the area. No idea how many here have been laid off but this area doesn’t see levels of unemployment seen elsewhere during recessions.