Are there neighborhoods that you believe will spiral in the next ten or twenty years?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:What will happen to Loudoun County now that Silver Line is open? Will it decline? Asking as someone who lived there for 5 years, moved to DC, and would return but was diagnosed with MS and like the ease of access but appreciated the quiet.

LOL - why would the Metro cause a spiral in Loudon County - that doesn't even make sense. The stations are basically brownfield locations right now anyhow.

Are you one of these insecure suburbanites who think public transit brings crime?

NP I think Loudoun will have some issues when people are called back to the office. A lot of people bought there assuming perpetual WFH

Loudoun was never supporting of unhoused populations. Look at Tysons now that metro has evolved there. There is more panhandling in Tyson’s than my home in DC.

Yeah, there are some panhandlers off the main commercial drags in Tysons near Metro now. Not nearly as many as in downtown DC, DuPont, Capitol Hill, or in and around the miserable mess that Union Station has become.

With the extension of the Silver Line, Loudoun will get some panhandlers near the areas of Ashburn that get built up. BFD.

There was some shooting into homes in Ashburn not too long ago as well. Sterling always had its issues but I think the combination will play out either good or bad with the intro of metro access.https://www.wusa9.com/amp/article/news/local/virginia/residents-in-ashburn-on-edge-after-someone-shoots-homes-in-the-middle-of-the-night/65-d3fa5fb5-813d-41db-b50e-17f17fd276f2

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

It's become home to the Uber Rich, mainly. The upper middle class friends I have living there all moved into their parent's houses. The other poster who talked about how car dependent it is has a good point too. It's the lack of economic diversity that seals it for me. I will also say, I don't live in North Arlington either, where I think some of the same complaints can be made. I really love and value living in a diverse place, racially and economically. On my street we have a family who all works at a fast food restaurant, several houses with teachers, some first responders, and someone high up in government who has their own security. It's an incredible mix that's hard to find elsewhere.

South Arlington isn’t that different than Annandale, Springfield, Wheaton, Woodbridge, or parts of Silver Spring and NE DC.

I think South Arlington would be a step up from those areas. South includes Clarendon right?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

It's become home to the Uber Rich, mainly. The upper middle class friends I have living there all moved into their parent's houses. The other poster who talked about how car dependent it is has a good point too. It's the lack of economic diversity that seals it for me. I will also say, I don't live in North Arlington either, where I think some of the same complaints can be made. I really love and value living in a diverse place, racially and economically. On my street we have a family who all works at a fast food restaurant, several houses with teachers, some first responders, and someone high up in government who has their own security. It's an incredible mix that's hard to find elsewhere.

South Arlington isn’t that different than Annandale, Springfield, Wheaton, Woodbridge, or parts of Silver Spring and NE DC.

I think South Arlington would be a step up from those areas. South includes Clarendon right?

No. Clarendon is in North Arlington.

There’s no unique mix in South Arlington. The SFHs are more expensive due to the location but otherwise there’s not much difference - especially from parts of Silver Spring (Columbia Pike is a lot like Georgia Avenue).

In any case, the PPs who’ve suggested Arlington is more in flux right now with the MM proposals than other areas like McLean are correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will happen to Loudoun County now that Silver Line is open? Will it decline? Asking as someone who lived there for 5 years, moved to DC, and would return but was diagnosed with MS and like the ease of access but appreciated the quiet.

LOL - why would the Metro cause a spiral in Loudon County - that doesn't even make sense. The stations are basically brownfield locations right now anyhow.

Are you one of these insecure suburbanites who think public transit brings crime?

NP I think Loudoun will have some issues when people are called back to the office. A lot of people bought there assuming perpetual WFH

No dog in this fight as I don't live in Loudoun, but its value hinges on WFH policies. If lots of people only go into their DC office 1-2 days per week, then it makes sense to live in Loudoun to get more house for your money, good schools, etc. If people have to go into the office 3-5 days per week, then it will revert to being a place people pick just because it's cheaper and they can't afford a better commute.

Have you seen the building going up along the silver line? If anything, the employment center in the area is shifting towards Tysons and Loudon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

It's become home to the Uber Rich, mainly. The upper middle class friends I have living there all moved into their parent's houses. The other poster who talked about how car dependent it is has a good point too. It's the lack of economic diversity that seals it for me. I will also say, I don't live in North Arlington either, where I think some of the same complaints can be made. I really love and value living in a diverse place, racially and economically. On my street we have a family who all works at a fast food restaurant, several houses with teachers, some first responders, and someone high up in government who has their own security. It's an incredible mix that's hard to find elsewhere.

South Arlington isn’t that different than Annandale, Springfield, Wheaton, Woodbridge, or parts of Silver Spring and NE DC.

I think South Arlington would be a step up from those areas. South includes Clarendon right?

No. Clarendon is in North Arlington.

There’s no unique mix in South Arlington. The SFHs are more expensive due to the location but otherwise there’s not much difference - especially from parts of Silver Spring (Columbia Pike is a lot like Georgia Avenue).

In any case, the PPs who’ve suggested Arlington is more in flux right now with the MM proposals than other areas like McLean are correct.

Thanks PP. Ah, so the neighborhoods by the Sheraton up thru Pentagon City/Crystal City/National Landing?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I don’t see how Kensington is declining. Building tons of houses in that neighborhood off Cedar I think it is

I ageee that Kensington is vibrant. Some things close and other things pop up, like the great pizza place and the relatively new playa bowls. One thing it needs is a better bus line to metro. We bought on the bethesda side to take advantage of the buses.

Kensington used to be looked at with an air to it in the 80s/90s. It has lost some of that appeal.

what? Never has Kensington been looked at "with an air to it". It's always been the area you drive through to get to DC or the area you live in because you can't afford Chevy Chase or Bethesda, but you can however afford more than Wheaton.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Why not? Genuinely curious. Actually, selfishly asking so I feel better not living there.

NP - my random thoughts
I have lived here for 25+ years. I live in the El Nido neighborhood that matriculates to Chesterbrook. Schools were fine (if you have a hard to teach child it is hard work to get them what they need)- we had the best experience at the HS and my children were extremely well prepared for college- especially in math and science. Commute options are great. The traffic is starting to build again. The tear downs are getting silly- they are now around the $3m and up and are larger and larger. The teardown houses are now $1.4. Personally, I like a medium sized well designed house (2000-3000sqft). When my children went through the school system, it was dual income couples that worked for the government or similar, lawyers, and a few doctors and dentists. There were plenty of families that had one spouse who worked part time. Now the government and similar couples are priced out - I expect it has changed the nature of the schools. People always complain about class sizes and they have always been too large. In ES, my children’s ranged from 25 in the good years to 34 ( worst year ).

We have a few restaurants we like, but could use a few more as long as they are not pizza places. I like that we have a few walks that get us to trails in the “forest” along Pimmit Run. Old Chesterbrook needs to have sidewalks added between Birch and the bridge over Pimmit Run.

There is an area that matriculates to Kent Garden, Longfellow and McLean that is walking to all three and is walking to downtown McLean. I think that would also be a great place to be. Kent Gardens is more crowded than Chesterbrook, though.

Some neighborhoods have the occasional block party, others have nothing. It mainly depends on if there is an organizer in the neighborhood and that changes from time to time.

Which neighborhoods are “an area that matriculates to Kent Garden, Longfellow and McLean that is walking to all three and is walking to downtown McLean”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see how Kensington is declining. Building tons of houses in that neighborhood off Cedar I think it is

I ageee that Kensington is vibrant. Some things close and other things pop up, like the great pizza place and the relatively new playa bowls. One thing it needs is a better bus line to metro. We bought on the bethesda side to take advantage of the buses.

Kensington used to be looked at with an air to it in the 80s/90s. It has lost some of that appeal.

I think the people "with airs" moved west to Bethesda/Potomac and now Kensington has more of a Silver Spring/Wheaton vibe. Which is actually what I like about it.

I thought this thread was about neighborhoods that seemed to be going downhill with crime and economic adversity but I don't think Kensington qualifies. I live in DC and am thinking about moving out of it due to crime, and Kensington is one of the areas we've been drawn to even though when I was in my 20s I considered it sort of stodgy and stuck up. It's hard to say if I've changed or it's changed, but either way -- it hasn't gone "downhill" in the spirt of this thread.

[Anonymous]

You would find a lot of great places that are less expensive if you understood that all the schools in FCPS have programs for the high achieving schools through the various AAP and IB programs. I would guess that you would find the neighborhoods that you are looking at in the Chantilly, Oakton, Lake Braddock, South Lakes pyramids. McLean and Langley are great schools but I am not sure they have the clumped together neighborhoods that you are looking at.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will happen to Loudoun County now that Silver Line is open? Will it decline? Asking as someone who lived there for 5 years, moved to DC, and would return but was diagnosed with MS and like the ease of access but appreciated the quiet.

LOL - why would the Metro cause a spiral in Loudon County - that doesn't even make sense. The stations are basically brownfield locations right now anyhow.

Are you one of these insecure suburbanites who think public transit brings crime?

NP I think Loudoun will have some issues when people are called back to the office. A lot of people bought there assuming perpetual WFH

No dog in this fight as I don't live in Loudoun, but its value hinges on WFH policies. If lots of people only go into their DC office 1-2 days per week, then it makes sense to live in Loudoun to get more house for your money, good schools, etc. If people have to go into the office 3-5 days per week, then it will revert to being a place people pick just because it's cheaper and they can't afford a better commute.

I live in Loudoun and not one of my neighbors works in DC. The jobs are right here in Loudoun and everyone has <15 min commutes. Dulles/Sterling/Route 28 have tons of high paying jobs. 1-2 of my neighbors work in Tysons, but that's not even a super long commute.

Also, your premise that Loudoun is cheaper is just wrong. The exburbs of Prince William and far out FFX county are cheaper.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Falls Church City will not necessarily decline, but it is changing a lot and I think the type of people who live there will change a lot in the next 20 years. It's becoming far too dense and people who moved there for the charming, little city feel, are likely to move away now that it's basically turning into Clarendon. We know a lot of empty nesters who are cashing out and moving away because they don't like the way the city is going.

So your basically saying FCC is growing and developing? The little City Feel only gets better with developments which = restaurants, small businesses, improved urban design, public spaces, local amenities, etc. Change is inevitable, and the change thats happening in FCC will definitely provide options for residents and will bring visitors from outside FCC into the little city to spend their money. The empty nesters who complain about this also complain about the high RE taxes, but they had no compaints when their kids were enrolled in FCCs top schools, and no complaints when they sell their homes for some of the highest price per sq ft in the area. But what they don't realize is development brings in more business/commercial revenue with which will help alleviate the RE tax burden on home owners. They would prefer a ghost town where everyone passes through without stopping so they can can pay less RE taxes?... doesn't make sense.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Parts of DC that clawed their way toward gentrification but can escape the crime

Reston that feeds into South Lakes High School

Areas around Tysons Corner where Fairfax County wants to dump more affordable housing due to Silver Line extension.

This is a popular take, but crime is actually down in DC in 2022 relative to last year.

DC can be tough for families, but the region is still growing, and the fertility rate is still near all-time lows. The increase in the number of singles and DINKs alone is enough to keep DC out of any real spiral.

Crime reported to the police is down. That's more likely an indicator of police not responding or taking reports.

This. DC police refuse to take police reports. There's much more crime than is reported.

Ok. And that wasn't true last year?

[Anonymous]

II used to really like Falls Church but the overwhelming development there is going to be its demise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:II used to really like Falls Church but the overwhelming development there is going to be its demise.

2 mixed use projects and a whole foods on a two mile stretch of route 7 is overwhelming? LOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is on downslope

I agree with you. There are too many people pushing too many things so that nothing is getting done. Plan Langston Blvd has been pushed aside for Missing Middle Housing which will have limited benefit. Meanwhile, every corridor is being stuffed with dense housing and CAFs. We are waiting for our twins to finish fifth grade at one of the elementary schools and then are moving to McLean. You get more land and house for the money and it is just a nicer group of people. We also have the option of getting kids into TJ and better middle and high school classes.

Arlington fell for the Amazon deal hook, line, and sinker and now Amazon is laying off people, not sending its top earners to the area, and probably will have a different business model by the time Virginia Tech and George Mason produce all the new grads who are slotted to work for Amazon. The loss of the commercial and hotel tax base is also showing up in higher property taxes.

As someone who grew up in McLean and now lives in Arlington, DISAGREE. McLean is not somewhere I’d want to live now.

Ditto. Mclean has been on the downslide for years. We moved after 15 years there and I feel like I finally escaped.